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Jan 6/7 "Event" and obs


stormtracker
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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ll tell you what stuck out to me when I searched for that answer. Gfs has a much more consolidated and vigorous vort max and because it’s associated with the primary it causes that to be the focus of amplification and associated banding vs transfer to the coastal secondary. Other guidance has a less focused vort with several weaker vorts that fails to support the primary enough to stave off energy transfer to the coastal, which is what causes the relative qpf minimum across our area.   

Just the person I was hoping would answer my question. Thanks man 

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4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

HRRR still dry..0.15-0.2 for most of extended DC metro....Looking like 1-3" for immediate DC metro and 2-4" NW imo...I'n giving the GFS minimal weight

GFS is no doubt an outlier. Naturally, it’s the only model showing best case scenario for dc to Baltimore :blink:

Hrrr was relatively dry ahead of monday’s storm too if I remember correctly 

 

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I’ll take the COBB output!

NAM 18z:

220107/0700Z  13  35007KT  30.5F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    9:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
220107/0800Z  14  32009KT  30.5F  SNOW   20:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120   19:1|  2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13  100|  0|  0
220107/0900Z  15  32008KT  30.5F  SNOW   27:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066   22:1|  4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20  100|  0|  0
220107/1000Z  16  32009KT  30.3F  SNOW   20:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041   21:1|  5.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24  100|  0|  0
220107/1100Z  17  31010KT  30.1F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006   21:1|  5.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24  100|  0|  0

 

27:1 ratios, here we come!

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Just now, Random Chaos said:

I’ll take the COBB output!

NAM 18z:

220107/0700Z  13  35007KT  30.5F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    9:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
220107/0800Z  14  32009KT  30.5F  SNOW   20:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120   19:1|  2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13  100|  0|  0
220107/0900Z  15  32008KT  30.5F  SNOW   27:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066   22:1|  4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20  100|  0|  0
220107/1000Z  16  32009KT  30.3F  SNOW   20:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041   21:1|  5.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24  100|  0|  0
220107/1100Z  17  31010KT  30.1F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006   21:1|  5.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24  100|  0|  0

 

27:1 ratios, here we come!

Is this BWI?

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