Scraff Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 5:08 PM, jayyy said: Relatively clueless on whether or not the DC to BAL corridor will see 1” or 6” within 12 hours of a storms onset. You know… the usual. Expand Of course! Well, I have to actually go sell some beers in MoCo now, so see you all at happy hour GFS! Side note-I’ll be at Downtown Crown at 4:00 if anyone wants to drink beer and talk snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 4:36 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol I have decided I will only look at the hrrr out to one hour. That means it will have already happened Expand I'll only look an hour after, only to remind myself never to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 5:11 PM, psuhoffman said: If you want to look smart say 2-5 everywhere. 90% will verify. When in reality we know there is likely to be a zone of 3-6 with a zone of 1-3 but placing those exact bands is risky and really just an educated guess. Expand For sure. I agree fully. As far as nws is concerned, their forecast makes sense. General 2-4” with lollies up to 6”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 All we need to do is will the initial shortwave into holding together and eventually merging with the coastal… instead of seeing it fade out as it approaches our area and transferring its energy to the coast Come on guys, we’ve got this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Well at least now with the model runs we know our fate within the first 10 minutes of the run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 5:09 PM, NorthArlington101 said: UKIE is (a bad model and cannot be trusted) but is on the team of having the screw zone being closer to PHI. Expand I do not feel comfortable when the UKIE is one of the better looking models for my area. And how did you do that smaller script lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 5:08 PM, psuhoffman said: I tend to like to use the euro for Synoptics like where to expect a feature then the higher resolution models for what the exact details of said feature will look like. That’s not 100% and I definitely factor the Gfs and other data into it and can nudge the euro representation one way or the other but that method has served me pretty well as a “starting point” from which to build on in the past. Expand Exactly. Expectations for models are at an all time high but we're still many years away from the level of detail and accuracy that many want put faith in today. Like you, I just create a data equation in my head with weighting on what I think makes the most sense, then double check previous similar events to get a handle on boom/bust for my specific yard. Even doing this for what... 25 years (15 intensely for me), the element of surprise in any direction is always present. I suppose that's what makes it so fun... and maddening... and evil... all at the same time 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 If anyone wants to start posting obs, made a thread for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 can't we just keep obs and stuff here? 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 5:43 PM, Bob Chill said: Exactly. Expectations for models are at an all time high but we're still many years away from the level of detail and accuracy that many want put faith in today. Like you, I just create a data equation in my head with weighting on what I think makes the most sense, then double check previous similar events to get a handle on boom/bust for my specific yard. Even doing this for what... 25 years (15 intensely for me), the element of surprise in any direction is always present. I suppose that's what makes it so fun... and maddening... and evil... all at the same time Expand Models have been locked in for a couple days now. Were talking .05 to .15 wobbles in precip for the most part. Pretty darn good in my opinion. I think a general 2 to 5 has been a consensus on models for the last few days. I know you've been preaching this for days now but it's hard to expect a model to nail down that minute amount of precip to the acre someone lives on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 5:49 PM, mappy said: can't we just keep obs and stuff here? Expand Yeah agreed. It's already a storm specific thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 5:50 PM, Chris78 said: Models have been locked in for a couple days now. Were talking .05 to .15 wobbles in precip for the most part. Pretty darn good in my opinion. I think a general 2 to 5 has been a consensus on models for the last few days. I know you've been preaching this for days now but it's hard to expect a model to nail down that minute amount of precip to the acre someone lives on. Expand The only thing I really care about is not having to deal with the ragged jagged precip shield and never getting any good lift overhead. The one thing that's keeping my confidence in a couple inches at least is the shortwave isn't dry. It's loaded up with pac moisture streaming from the jet from the pac nw thru the central rockies and into the TN Valley. Often these shortwaves have only moisture from Canada and can't tap anything. Those are tough on the nerves. I may end up in a relative min but I don't think it will be less than 2" (famous last words) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 5:53 PM, Kmlwx said: Yeah agreed. It's already a storm specific thread. Expand so many posts for a 3 inch snowstorm. no wonder Bob quit the weather board 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 5:55 PM, Bob Chill said: The only thing I really care about is not having to deal with the ragged jagged precip shield and never getting any good lift overhead. The one thing that's keeping my confidence in a couple inches at least is the shortwave isn't dry. It's loaded up with pac moisture streaming from the jet from the pac nw thru the central rockies and into the TN Valley. Often these shortwaves have only moisture from Canada and can't tap anything. Those are tough on the nerves. I may end up in a relative min but I don't thing it will be less than 2" (famous last words) Expand Those are only famous last words in the Chill household. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 The Euro peed in my Cheerios, but it is still more than I got on Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 12z EURO still has an I-95 screw zone but it blends in pretty well, honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 5:56 PM, Ji said: so many posts for a 3 inch snowstorm. no wonder Bob quit the weather board Expand This hobby is the anti-thesis of free time efficiency. That's the core reason I backed off. I was spending a disproportionate amount of time doing something pretty much unproductive. My time has become more valuable than a d5+ storm on an op. I only start doing the analysis thing inside of 72 hours. I barely looked at models yesterday too. I just popped in here from time to time to make sure it was still on the table. Yesterday's model runs don't mean jack squat today anyways 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 .2 of frozen fluff would be basically better than the entirety of 20-21 winter for MBY, so I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 My bar is 2". Any more, great. Less, that sucks. But I just got 8 to 10 inches of fun Monday... so I have no room to really complain 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 5:58 PM, NorthArlington101 said: 12z EURO still has an I-95 screw zone but it blends in pretty well, honestly. Expand Not even much of a screw zone, just a 2-3 inch snowfall for pretty much the entire subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 6:01 PM, yoda said: My bar is 2". Any more, great. Less, that sucks. But I just got 8 to 10 inches of fun Monday... so I have no room to really complain Expand Yeah, just refreshing the snowpack would be great for you guys. I'm seeing grass in lots of spots so..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 This was never a more than 2-4 inch storm guys. Although, I’m hugging DT’s 4-7 inch call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 6:02 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Not even much of a screw zone, just a 2-3 inch snowfall for pretty much the entire subforum. Expand It’s a screw zone relative to the precip maxes in E MD / DE and WV…. But I agree, as far as this subforum is concerned, it depicts a pretty uniform 2-3” event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 6:03 PM, LeesburgWx said: This was never a more than 2-4 inch storm guys. Although, I’m hugging DT’s 4-7 inch call. Expand Hugging DT’s call — famous last words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 This little system started as a 1-3”, 2-4” discussion earlier in the week. Then we all got excited about adding a couple more inches. I guess we are back to where we started. We won’t really know until tomorrow at around 6 am. Until then, we will keep checking in every hour (or more) just to see what changed in the models! And in the meantime, we will keep looking at the medium range to find our next January ‘16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 6:00 PM, Paleocene said: .2 of frozen fluff would be basically better than the entirety of 20-21 winter for MBY, so I'll be happy. Expand Agreed.. looking out the window at midnight and not seeing the light snow falling is a win compared to last year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 6:03 PM, LeesburgWx said: This was never a more than 2-4 inch storm guys. Although, I’m hugging DT’s 4-7 inch call. Expand The one that @stormtracker said was set up for a big fail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 They just announced schools are closed here tomorrow in Jefferson County, WV. I've never seen such an early call for a possible couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 CWG waffling…..1-3, changed to 2-4, now reverted back to 1-3 for a chunk of the area. Lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 6:10 PM, WVsnowlover said: They just announced schools are closed here tomorrow in Jefferson County, WV. I've never seen such an early call for a possible couple of inches. Expand Timing plus rates plus terrain plus temps probably make it a concern for busses. Don't need much on the roads to make that an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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