WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 3:52 PM, osfan24 said: Exactly. And I think PSU made the point that, when it comes to globals, the Euro is much better picking out the banding features than the GFS. I pray the GFS is right, but I prayed it was right just before the last storm and I was sadly mistaken. Expand Same here. GFS showed a better northern edge that turned out to be pure fantasy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 3:52 PM, osfan24 said: Exactly. And I think PSU made the point that, when it comes to globals, the Euro is much better picking out the banding features than the GFS. I pray the GFS is right, but I prayed it was right just before the last storm and I was sadly mistaken. Expand GFS had me and your old hood nailed perfectly this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 3:44 PM, EastCoast NPZ said: You really measure snow to the hundredth? Lol. Expand No? Sorry for not measuring correctly. .25 and .3. Will fix it. Sorry to not meet your standards. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 3:54 PM, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS Expand Probably just noise, but it did seem to adjust that band very slightly west again, and it also slightly cut the qpf for that band as well. Think we were looking at 5-7 from that on the 6z run. Looks more like 4-5+ on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 3:50 PM, stormtracker said: This is going to be quite the fail. Expand DT's on a roll..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I've decided to go to Thomas, WV. It is near Davis and it should be a great spot for this storm. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Nice vertical velocities on the GFS 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just a FYI, the GFS also had Richmond getting 8-12” Monday’s storm and we didn’t even get close to that. Just throwing the caution warning out there for those hugging the GFS. Maybe it’s right for you guys though 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 3:57 PM, Fozz said: I've decided to go to Thomas, WV. It is near Davis and it should be a great spot for this storm. Expand Thomas is great. The purple fiddle is a cool spot! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 3:52 PM, osfan24 said: Exactly. And I think PSU made the point that, when it comes to globals, the Euro is much better picking out the banding features than the GFS. I pray the GFS is right, but I prayed it was right just before the last storm and I was sadly mistaken. Expand The gfs actually did quite well handling that last storm… it was just a bit off on where that sharp cutoff would be. It had it further NW. otherwise, it handled the evolution of the system pretty well. Missed on the totals near I-70 and Richmond though With that being said, this setup is much different. Meso models are much more important for this type of setup when we’re talking about banding, transfer of energy to the coast, etc. GFS does well when it comes to handling one main area of low pressure tracking to our south. Not so much when we’re talking about two distinct areas of precip / lift and the interaction between them. The GFS tends to oversimplify things and see things much more uniformly, missing the nuances of miller b type storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gunny23 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 3:57 PM, Fozz said: I've decided to go to Thomas, WV. It is near Davis and it should be a great spot for this storm. Expand We want to head out to Canaan tonight but I don't think we could get on the road before 6:30 - might make for a rough drive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 3:57 PM, Fozz said: I've decided to go to Thomas, WV. It is near Davis and it should be a great spot for this storm. Expand Spine of the Apps from Garrett down to Snowshoe will be a great spot, but especially Davis and Snowshoe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I think we are losing Tomer Burg....his homemade CAM model says DC-NY snowhole....personally i'm waiting to see what Cynthia Frelunds in-house model says before I jump 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 3:46 PM, NorthArlington101 said: DT might be hugging the GFS this time around. Wow. Last time he called the GFS totals total BS and his map was way under for some areas. I would love if he would be right this time! Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 The gfs actually gives Baltimore and it’s nearby suburbs more snow than Winchester. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 3:58 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Thomas is great. The purple fiddle is a cool spot! Expand Tip Top Coffee too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 The CMC is going to nice https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 3:58 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Thomas is great. The purple fiddle is a cool spot! Expand On 1/6/2022 at 4:02 PM, gunny23 said: We want to head out to Canaan tonight but I don't think we could get on the road before 6:30 - might make for a rough drive. Expand On 1/6/2022 at 4:02 PM, nj2va said: Spine of the Apps from Garrett down to Snowshoe will be a great spot, but especially Davis and Snowshoe. Expand I'm also going to check out Timberline... never skied there before but with their improvements it should be a fun experience. Although not everything is open, I think conditions should be great after tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 3:57 PM, Fozz said: I've decided to go to Thomas, WV. It is near Davis and it should be a great spot for this storm. Expand Watch out for hippies 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 4:04 PM, jayyy said: The gfs actually gives Baltimore and it’s nearby suburbs more snow than Winchester. Interesting. Expand Yeah, exciting isn’t it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 3:58 PM, RVASnowLover said: Just a FYI, the GFS also had Richmond getting 8-12” Monday’s storm and we didn’t even get close to that. Just throwing the caution warning out there for those hugging the GFS. Maybe it’s right for you guys though Expand If you take the 10:1 maps as gospel, sure it might've looked like that, but Richmond was never getting 8-12" on any model if you looked at the details. You were in the mix zone for hours. That all gets counted as snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 4:12 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Yeah, exciting isn’t it Expand It’s 1 model. The rest don’t. Think you’ll be alright up there friend. We’ve seen only 1 storm this year - can’t win em all. Last year, we were the ones cashing each storm as the 95 corridor saw zilch all season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 2:44 PM, WxUSAF said: Some/many/most of us have realized that there’s going to be a middle finger screw zone somewhere with this storm as the energy transfers to the coast and the precip to the west weakens before the coastal enhancement sets up. And we’ve been saying it could be through our region. Seems like there are two places the models are placing it so far this morning: 1. DC northeastward towards Lancaster Co PA. 2. Philly northeastward through the NYC area. Hrrr and Euro are in camp 1. 3k NAM and FV3 are in camp 2. Haven’t looked close enough to try and tease out what the precise differences are driving that. Expand RGEM in camp 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 3:46 PM, LeesburgWx said: This is making it over the mountains, right? Expand The GFS certainly thinks so. Maybe the model is just simplifying things. Big blob of precip headed our way, cold enough = snow! If only it were that easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 4:14 PM, TSG said: If you take the 10:1 maps as gospel, sure it might've looked like that, but Richmond was never getting 8-12" on any model if you looked at the details. You were in the mix zone for hours. That all gets counted as snow. Expand And unless something has changed, the GFS still counts sleet as massive snow on the 10:1 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 HDRPS pretty decent. 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 4:20 PM, NorthArlington101 said: HDRPS pretty decent. Expand Pretty good consensus among Euro, RGEM, NAMs, HRDRPS for ~0.2 QPF in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 4:20 PM, NorthArlington101 said: HDRPS pretty decent. Expand That's camp 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 3:49 PM, stormtracker said: The thing is..the GFS is global. I'd be kinda cautious vs the mesos Expand Globals are too broad brush for narrowly defined sensible wx in the short range. Euro has the resolution but it's still a global. OTOH- mesos try to be "too accurate" with exact placement of subtle variations of qpf/bands etc. I know you know this but just reminding everyone that all decent models are useful in the short range but no one model is deadly. Just blend and apply climo. Rarely fails. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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