Jan 6/7 "Event" and obs

[Ji]

No one look at the 12z HRRR would be my recommendation. 

Look at the nam3k instead

[Deer Whisperer]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Talk about such drastic differences for 12-16 hours out lol

Feels like we've said this for the last few winters now

[yoda]

Well 12z NAM is going west...

[paxpatriot]

Euro/NAM combo used to be pretty deadly at this range, so let’s hope that’s the case here.

[NorthArlington101]

Well 12z NAM is going west...

It’s a 4 hour storm, but at least it’s heavy enough

[yoda]

2-4 for most on 12z NAM

[Bob Chill]

Hrrr could be right. Looks just like a typical outcome for this kind of deal. At least it's kinda juicy leading in. Sometimes these shortwaves are dry AF to our SW and we wait for radar to "blossom"... my least favorite activity with NS systems. 

Thing is, these types of storms, no matter how many models show otherwise, have the potential to do exactly what the hrrr shows in real time. I have a good memory. And they aren't good memories for my yard. 

I'm not a deb, neg Nance, or wet blanket. If we really respect this hobby as a learning experience, accepting the possibility of the hrrr solution should be second nature. I can easily see "the middle" getting over 4" or just 1". Won't know until it's over 

[rjvanals]

Couple minor things different on the 12z Nams bs 6z: both have a slightly later start time and also have a brief period of rain before the switch to inside the beltway 

[NorthArlington101]

Couple minor things different on the 12z Nams bs 6z: both have a slightly later start time and also have a brief period of rain before the switch to inside the beltway 

agree with point A, but not seeing the rain on these maps:

[rjvanals]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

agree with point A, but not seeing the rain on these maps:

Shows up on pivotal w precip types. 12z 3kn also shows the Parr Ridge jackpot so it may be right 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

agree with point A, but not seeing the rain on these maps:

There's not a drop of rain near or inside the beltway

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

agree with point A, but not seeing the rain on these maps:

Yeah think getting in rain in this setup would be difficult. Maybe some mushy flakes, and not for long.

[high risk]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

agree with point A, but not seeing the rain on these maps:

        One quick note:   maps like these for any models except RAP/HRRR are completely derived by the site that displays them, and they involve a lot of estimating and interpolating.   Only the RAP/HRRR have explicit totals by type.      That said, most of the guidance now shows at most a very brief period of rain at the start.

[rjvanals]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

There's not a drop of rain near or inside the beltway

Here's the map on pivotal 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Pretty similar result on the NAM twins for dc metro but they cut back a bit SE of town.

[H2O]

Here's a tip.  Check soundings

[Weather Will]

WB 3K NAM.  Did shift NW this run.

[mappy]

^ yes please

[Warm Nose]

We'll see, but it does look like the GFS might indeed be the outlier

[Yeoman]

10 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Here's the map on pivotal 

Considering it's already 40 degrees at 9am that doesn't seem unrealistic

[Amped]

The nam was initialized with a stronger low off the Florida coast. This tracks out to sea and takes some of the precip with it.

Edit: not initialized but the low is stronger by the time it's off the carolinas.

[87storms]

i like my spot with this system.  the northwest trend makes perfect sense given the entire setup and how much further north the upper level energy is this time around compared to monday.  the only things i'd be concerned about for the entire forum east of the apps is that downsloping is a thing with weaker systems (though that doesn't seem to be the case with this one).  with that said, anyone who grew up in the 80s/90s in this area knows exactly what i'm talking about (though obviously models have improved in that regard).

[NorthArlington101]

Hi-Res FV3 looks nice.

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

We are region centered of course but the last week across parts of Tennessee and I suppose northern Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia has been pretty epic.

Thanks for this list of unlikely places that have crushed the snow totals for the Hereford Zone so far this year. Hello darkness my old friend...

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Hi-Res FV3 looks nice.

Looks like GFS

[stormtracker]

16 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Here's the map on pivotal 

Yeah, that 10 min of rain might wet the roads.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Looks like GFS

It’s “related” to the GFS so not surprising 

[North Balti Zen]

57 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

12z HRRR has the dead zone near 95.  <0.10" QPF in parts of Fairfax and MoCo.  This seems like an extreme solution, but puts a lower bound on the event.

awesome. keep the groin kicks coming. add in some benny hill music too, for proper effect. 

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s “related” to the GFS so not surprising 

      Correct.    It's initialized with the previous GFS cycle and has a fairly similar overall configuration (with higher resolution).

[H2O]

ahhhhhhhh....the model run freak outs.  Oh how I have not missed thee