WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Kinda looks better across the board if were gonna analyze it haha. The actual low and the vort take a good track, what the NAM identifies as the low on a few frames isn't really the location lol. I’m only looking at precip totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 NWS seems to be seeing the dual-band scenario in their latest accumulation maps too: Still, I'll take 2-3" and be happy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 That should help I-95 this time with lower amounts right along it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLynnWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 25 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: maybe it sounds crazy but I once stayed up all night just to see it snow and walk out in it. Not crazy. Weather aficionado/night owl here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3k looks good. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 We’ve broken TT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 If we could get that MSLP to jog westward even a little, I think we'd be really happy. You can start to see the coastal enhancement on the 3k just as the storm get's going, that's what really ends up providing the nice totals D.C-east, from my not-so-expert analysis. Getting that a bit earlier/further west would be nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 24 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: maybe it sounds crazy but I once stayed up all night just to see it snow and walk out in it. Far from crazy. Done this so many times. 1st rule - crack a beer (always bring a second one of course) and Jebwalk for a few hours in the peacefulness of an overnight snowfall. The only thing that comes close to that—a daytime version of it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 39 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: SREF’s not exactly wetter but a little more expansive with the wetness. And if you rely upon the SREF’s you need help, professional help. You’ve come to the right place. Someday a clinical psychologist is gonna find this board and make a killing. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 37 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: maybe it sounds crazy but I once stayed up all night just to see it snow and walk out in it. That's completely normal behavior among the posters here. 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 31 minutes ago, high risk said: While I don't get too worked up over HRRR snow details 36 hours out, the 18z forecast is consistent with the idea that has been discussed about good amounts to the west with the shortwave dynamics and then a secondary max to the southeast as the coastal low spins up. Unpleasant screw zone in between, although its totals there would be acceptable, at least to me. And the band of heavier totals with the coastal low isn't far southeast of I-95 at all.... This is a west to east pass by mover with about half the moisture getting scraped off by mountains and rest deposited here. No gulf nor Atlantic moisture to replenish the moisture once east of mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 44 minutes ago, wxtrix said: my watch mentions heavy snow tomorrow evening and isolated totals of 6". as long as it melts in a few days. Yeah they gave us six inch lolli's. We'll take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 That's completely normal behavior among the posters here. Yep. I have done many “all nighters” chasing the snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 25 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s better. For some of you, much better 3k NAM is nice 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 13 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: That's completely normal behavior among the posters here. But he said “once” and that’s what’s crazy!!! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 That prime coastal moisture is oh so close to I-95 on the 18z HRRR. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 48 minutes ago, mappy said: Ha, Ill make it until 11 before saying f-it and go to bed. pfft nope. sleep is far too important to me to stay up for snow. i dont even stay up for the euro. the snow will still be there in the morning. For me it has to be a very big storm (MECS or HECS) to be worth staying up. I got up super early in January 2016, barely had any sleep, but still managed to enjoy the whole thing up until the very end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 If we can manage a 2-4” region wide snowfall with 6” lollies, that’s a win in my book for sure. advisory for 2-4 with 6” lollies for Carroll and points west advisory for 2-4 with 5” lollies for central MD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: That prime coastal moisture is oh so close to I-95 on the 18z HRRR. Plenty of time left to see a 20-30 mile shift west as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 ICON should be better has the low at the VA/NC border at 30. North of last run. Yeah. An extra .1-.2 for everyone. Nice run on the ICON. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: That prime coastal moisture is oh so close to I-95 on the 18z HRRR. This is where I usually post a youtube from the late 90s, but gonna try and act more "adult" - pun intended 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 @clskinsfangot a nice strip showing up to a 1/2” qpf around the Blue Ridge there and then up into NW VA 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Certainly the N/W folks will take the ICON. .35-.45 precip for the climo favored folks. Would be a nice event if the possible ratios panned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 47 minutes ago, WinterFire said: NWS seems to be seeing the dual-band scenario in their latest accumulation maps too: Still, I'll take 2-3" and be happy! NWS also now has what used to be called something else ("90th percentile")? - now it has another name, but for us I contend this should be called (reasonable) BEST case scenario! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: ICON should be better has the low at the VA/NC border at 30. North of last run. Yeah. An extra .1-.2 for everyone. Nice run on the ICON. Well except for Baltimore lol.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, batmanbrad said: NWS also now has what used to be called something else ("90th percentile")? - now it has another name, but for us I contend this should be called (reasonable) BEST case scenario! "Reasonable Worst Case Scenario" WTF is that exactly? Accuracy by obfuscation? Goodness that's bad. Worst case by whose standards? Does that mean that's the minimum or maximum? I'd be embarrassed as a met to put that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Leave it to the NWS to make messaging even more complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 40 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: That prime coastal moisture is oh so close to I-95 on the 18z HRRR. Maybe this sounds silly, but how much of that moisture "barrier" is due to upsloping from the coastal plain to the fall line? Could the fall line actually be squeezing the limited moisture out from the coastal? Or is it just coincidental positioning? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Well… that’s an odd way to phrase it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, wxtrix said: it’s not complicated. the majority of the public doesn’t like snow. lots of people have to go to work, no matter what. for them the higher end is a worst case scenario. the NWS serves the public, not weenies. It's an awful way to word it. Why not stick with the original designation - 10 percent chance? I'm not surprised honestly but this one is beyond dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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