Eskimo Joe Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: They may have a different warning criteria 30 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Canaan isn't under a watch or anything? Are they just a bit too far east to cash in on the 6-10" totals with this one? What resorts are over there, not as familiar with the WV options. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, Interstate said: Nobody look at the UKIE It is better than 0z. Wetter and that’s all that matters this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Yea Timberline is night and day from a few years ago. The new owners know what they are doing.Heading up there Mon and Tues. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It is better than 0z. Wetter and that’s all that matters this time. Yeah the QPF is an improvement, I don't lend too much credibility to the UK but we'll take a consensus. Just for some reason, the snow maps shut east out of the mountains out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 13 minutes ago, chris21 said: It’s 12z run snow maps are a bit wonky. It depicts .2-.3 qpf with temps below freezing and little or no snow accumulation. yea, that doesn't make sense and i agree wholeheartedly with others that we should be tracking the precip maps vs these snow maps that will likely be wrong since this is clearly going to be dependent on where any/if moderate bands develop (which could also be elevation dependent especially if the surface low tracks too far south/east). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It is better than 0z. Wetter and that’s all that matters this time. Thus far, trend for the 12z suite has been for a bit wetter and bit more favorable jet dynamics. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 18 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Heading up there Mon and Tues. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk I was there for 8 days Christmas to New Years Day. Never got below freezing and i watched the slopes degrade to almost nothing as the week went on. Then came back to a foot of snow 2 days later in Montclair. Crazy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 12z Canadian is a nice 2" - 4" event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terrapinwx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Out to hour 30 on the 12z Euro, looks to be better organized and slightly further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Drier than 06z but I think most would take this. 6 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Euro ~0.21" for DCA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z Canadian is a nice 2" - 4" event. Destroys Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Euro with the Parr's Ridge maximum. Nice little event. Our eastern shore peeps get love too. Another plowable snowfall for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Destroys Boston Destroys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Euro ~0.21" for DCA. With decent ratios, I'm OK with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: With decent ratios, I'm OK with this. And a high of 30 at DCA for the day with temps falling off to the low 20s by 00z. Nice wintry day upcoming. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Comparing this to the 6z really not much difference other than minor noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Drier than 06z but I think most would take this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, mattie g said: With decent ratios, I'm OK with this. Straight to WWA you think? or WSW to WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, BristowWx said: Straight to WWA you think? or WSW to WWA I'd hedge straight to a WWA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, BristowWx said: Straight to WWA you think? or WSW to WWA I suspect WWA WSW seems too extreme... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 12z suite really locked in 3-4" over my neck of the woods for this one. Will be a great wintry scene and day for sure. I am on the side of the mountain so can see/hear Liberty and the guns at all times too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 This is literally what WWA was made for. WSW should be for a legit storm. Not a 6 hour event with a few inches of snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 15 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Destroys Boston Nobody cares about Boston 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Ji said: any chance we outdo 10:1 ratios? Yes but only if we end up in one of likely 2 bands. Even with very cold temps places that end up in a subsidence zone between bands won’t get good ratios because of poor snow growth. That will cause an even greater disparity than those maps indicate. There will be a band to the NW fueled by the jet dynamics and a band to the SE fueled by fgen and the developing coastal along the coastal baroclinic boundary. You and I probably want to root for the NW band. I see little chance the coastal helps us. The euro wants to position that NW band nicely for us. Some other guidance puts us in the subsidence zone between the bands. That’s going to be a nowcast thing. But if we get into the jet induced band I could see places go 20-1 and pull some 4-5” totals out of .2-.3 qpf. It happens in these setups. Then a lot of 1-2” totals between there and the coastal band. 1 hour ago, Rhino16 said: It will be really good for Snowshoe, as they closed a ton of stuff. They had to close silvercreek for a few days, but it’s reopening at noon. I’m heading up there for the weekend. They are going to start working on the western territories again tomorrow. Hopefully they get it open by Saturday. Not going up to New England until they get some snow. They had rain and a hard freeze last week and no snow since. I traded in all my skis except for my Atomic Access which are great all terrain skis that handle everything well except ice. But I’ve reached the point I don’t bother going when it’s a sheet of ice anymore. Not worth it. 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Euro with the Parr's Ridge maximum. Nice little event. Our eastern shore peeps get love too. Another plowable snowfall for them. The euro is the only global that picks that feature up well. You can scroll through the runs and see it has that Parrs ridge qpf max every run. It even does better at that feature than some of the high res models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Why on earth would they go with WSW? This is WWA all the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 @mappyits going to snow. The question is where the 2 bands set up. We want to root for a healthier jet induced band. The coastal wont do us any good. If we get into the banding along the arctic boundary we could pull in 3-5” with high ratios. Otherwise if we get stuck in between that band and the coastal we probably get 1-3”. Where that sets up will be a nowcast thing. Euro likes us better for getting under that band. Gfs wants us in the dead zone. We will see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Nobody cares about Boston Not only that, but it doesn't destroy Boston in any way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just lock up the Euro right now. 4 inches out here is a nice consolation prize after the last storm. Enough to cover everything. That's all I ask. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, KAOS said: Why on earth would they go with WSW? This is WWA all the way. Because it gives time to decide on whether to issue advisory or warning. Most of the WSW do in fact turn into WWAs here. Except 2016. Full blown blizzard watch/warnings days out. Miss those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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