H2O Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Of it has a DC snow hole then it will be correct 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: HRRR has a realistic scenario where there is a relative min east of the mountains and before the low strengthens. That's some turd in the punchbowl stuff right there....next time don't post until you've had your coffee 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: HRRR has a realistic scenario where there is a relative min east of the mountains and before the low strengthens. Ha, if that happened after Monday's debacle, I'd have to step away for a bit. Just give me some decent snow so I can take the kids sledding this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: That's some turd in the punchbowl stuff right there....next time don't post until you've had your coffee Unfortunately, this is how these storms often break for my yard so pretty reasonable outcome. You generally always do better in da burg thanjust west of 95 burbs. Every once in a blue the enhanced stripe to the east helps me out but more often than not... outside looking in with best totals on these deals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, Bob Chill said: Unfortunately, this is how these storms often break for my yard so pretty reasonable outcome. You generally always do better in da burg that just west of 95 burbs. Every once in a blue the enhanced stripe to the east helps me out but more often than not... outside looking in with best totals on these deals Even that particular model run is still 1-3" for most so in line i think the scale throws off perception a bit. It does highlight the skip nature of these events though but all of the other models showed it as well just not as drastically because of the dull grey color on this one. HRRR at 45 though...i'm hugging the euro and canada for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: HRRR has a realistic scenario where there is a relative min east of the mountains and before the low strengthens. Sadly that's all too believable and I could see that verifying. Thankfully it's the HRRR at longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Ha, if that happened after Monday's debacle, I'd have to step away for a bit. Just give me some decent snow so I can take the kids sledding this weekend. It's making a drive out west very tempting for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Even that particular model run is still 1-3" for most so in line i think the scale throws off perception a bit. It does highlight the skip nature of these events though but all of the other models showed it as well just not as drastically because of the dull grey color on this one. HRRR at 45 though...i'm hugging the euro and canada for now The one thing that typically annoys TF out of me with these shortwaves is radar usually looks killer to the west leading in. Then wxwxluvr has 2" of snow b4 I get a flake. The precip moves into my area and it's all ragged and jagged. You're get mod snow during this time. Then your's shuts off with a respectable total and the SE kicks in while I get table scraps. I always expect the lowest qpf on these deals. Keeps me grounded 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 13 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Quite likely for you and me and 15:1 for areas closer to the beltways. Hoping we can squeeze out .25 Should yield a solid 3 to 5" event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Looks like 12z NAM is moving the s/w over New England north a bit, rising heights a tad through 26 Can see a slightly south movement of the QPF field and SLP placement comparing 12z 30 to 06z 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The one thing that typically annoys TF out of me with these shortwaves is radar usually looks killer to the west leading in. Then wxwxluvr has 2" of snow b4 I get a flake. The precip moves into my area and it's all ragged and jagged. You're get mod snow during this time. Then your's shuts off with a respectable total and the SE kicks in while I get table scraps. I always expect the lowest qpf on these deals. Keeps me grounded My expectations are set at cake froster event and nothing more.....best case is a lopsided cake that needs extra frosting to make it look even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: My expectations are set at cake froster event and nothing more.....best case is a lopsided cake that needs extra frosting to make it look even. What you want: What we'll get: 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Unfortunately, this is how these storms often break for my yard so pretty reasonable outcome. You generally always do better in da burg thanjust west of 95 burbs. Every once in a blue the enhanced stripe to the east helps me out but more often than not... outside looking in with best totals on these deals Yeah, we've seen this story plenty of times. Out west does good and that precip dries up as it heads over the mountains. The coastal forms and congrats Coastal NJ. Everyone in between, naso good. Still I'll gladly take an inch of powder that covers the streets vs the 4 inches we got with the last system that was grassy surfaces only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 25 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Sadly that's all too believable and I could see that verifying. Thankfully it's the HRRR at longer range. Finally someone said it. It's the HRRR....at longer range.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 21 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like 12z NAM is moving the s/w over New England north a bit, rising heights a tad through 26 Can see a slightly south movement of the QPF field and SLP placement comparing 12z 30 to 06z 24 Eh. Its like 3 hours of snow though. Such a quick mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Eh. Its like 3 hours of snow though. Such a quick mover. Yeah, it is not inspiring. I guess it's still a 1-3/2-4 if ratios are decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 HRRR causing storm cancels. This f'ing place... 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Eh. Its like 3 hours of snow though. Such a quick mover. Yeah. Just got wind of this after a night at the gal's place. Quick glance isn't overly exciting. Looks like a 1-3" at most for my backyard. But with temps not being an issue, you never know, and there's nothing wrong with a 1-3" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Eh. Its like 3 hours of snow though. Such a quick mover. No blocking up Top over Greenland makes it difficult for it not to be a quick mover. Plus NO 50/50 lowSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Eh. Its like 3 hours of snow though. Such a quick mover. Chris, now you and I both know if we’re going to get 3 inches we might as well get an inch an hour for three hours to make it fun. The NAM is after all 3 to 4 inches for quite a few people, with the best numbers being the favored Northwest folks like old times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3K seems like its looking better than the 12K so far, stornger low and a little closer to the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Yeah. Just got wind of this after a night at the gal's place. Quick glance isn't overly exciting. Looks like a 1-3" at most for my backyard. But with temps not being an issue, you never know, and there's nothing wrong with a 1-3" event. guidance might not agree on how much but does on the quick mover part and hard to see a scenario that changes that fact...you are right...couple inches of snow never hurts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Chris, now you and I both know if we’re going to get 3 inches we might as well get an inch an hour for three hours to make it fun. The name is after all 3 to 4 inches for quite a few people, with the best numbers being the favored Northwest folks like old times. Haha yeah. Not Poo Poo'ing it, was just analyzing. Waiting for the snow output but 3K seems better..more like 6 hours of snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 12z 3k NAM is 2 to 4 for most looking at Kuchera 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: HRRR causing storm cancels. This f'ing place... Whst page of the last storm thread is the CRAS link on? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: 3k NAM is 2 to 4 for most looking at Kuchera 3k jackpots HoCo. I’m huggin’ A bit more seriously, it’s soundings look very nice for a quick powder bomb. SLRs should be a bit better than 10:1. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Whst page of the last storm thread is the CRAS link on? Are we back on after the 3km NAM? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 a couple of inches of fluff would be great. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 3k jackpots HoCo. I’m huggin’ A bit more seriously, it’s soundings look very nice for a quick powder bomb. SLRs should be a bit better than 10:1. Yeah, let's just lock that up. Looks like 4-6 for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now