stormtracker Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 It's time. Euro was kinda bleak, but we still have time for changes. Anyway, since this is no longer medium/long range, storm's gotta have it's own thread. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's time. Euro was kinda bleak, but we still have time for changes. Anyway, since this is no longer medium/long range, storm's gotta have it's own thread. Thanks for starting this. Yeah, it's about time even if it turns out "meh". Heck, we've had threads for far less potential so why not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I'm still sore from the last shoveling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 So we all agree to blame Randy if this fails, right? 3 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Brianonymous said: I'm still sore from the last shoveling. Must be nice. My neck is sore from staring up in the sky looking for an occasional flake to fall. 1 1 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, mappy said: So we all agree to blame Randy if this fails, right? Well the fail, if it does, started with the Euro...before this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Well the fail, if it does, started with the Euro...before this thread. So blame the Euro...but not Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 HRRR & GFS led the way on the last storm. In HRRR & GFS I Trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well the fail, if it does, started with the Euro...before this thread. We take starting threads very seriously around here, I know it's been a bit since you've joined us on a regular basis, and may have forgotten. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Too much euro love here. Keep in mind that the other models weren’t far off from this. I’m totally prepared for the outcome where it snows west of the mountains, in the Piedmont, and the Lee side of the mountains sees virga. The old inverted v may yet rear its ugly head. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 25 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's time. Euro was kinda bleak, but we still have time for changes. Anyway, since this is no longer medium/long range, storm's gotta have it's own thread. I’m feeling good about you starting this thread. Even though you canceled the last storm with me telling you there was still hope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Prestige Worldwide said: When will they post warnings? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well the fail, if it does, started with the Euro...before this thread. Ah... but you started this threading knowing what the Euro showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, Interstate said: Ah... but you started this threading knowing what the Euro showed. I mean, we could have kept talking about a storm 60 hours away in the long range thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 No talk about freezing rain in the am. Legit or no? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I mean, we could have kept talking about a storm 60 hours away in the long range thread? By then it could have been just some cirrus clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: No talk about freezing rain in the am. Legit or no? Not the correct thread for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 17 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: HRRR & GFS led the way on the last storm. In HRRR & GFS I Trust. I don’t know about the HRRR but I have good reason to favor the GFS given that the Euro basically caved to it the last time. GFS is king until it’s dethroned 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: I don’t know about the HRRR but I have good reason to favor the GFS given that the Euro basically caved to it the last time. GFS is king until it’s dethroned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Latest WB EPS is not encouraging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Latest WB EPS is not encouraging. I don't know dude....looks like a whiteout in your area 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Latest WB EPS is not encouraging. It never works when it is, so 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Latest WB EPS is not encouraging. eh, that’s the map I’d show if I wanted to be a downer. This is in line with “reasonable” expectations of an advisory-level event. It is a bit flatter/more suppressed than 06z. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Not a downer, just a realist. The southern suburbs are due a good year. I lived inside the Beltway for over 20 years so I have seen both sides of the fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Not a downer, just a realist. The southern suburbs are due a good year. I lived inside the Beltway for over 20 years so I have seen both sides of the fence.Totally sympathize — just not sure a 3” probs map was the best one to share for this event. Obviously wish it was showing higher probs but I think a reasonable bar as things stand is 1”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 19 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Latest WB EPS is not encouraging. What does probability of 12"+ and 24"+ show? Let's go big! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Totally sympathize — just not sure a 3” probs map was the best one to share for this event. Obviously wish it was showing higher probs but I think a reasonable bar as things stand is 1”. Yeah, that. map was pretty deceptive. I mean, today set expectations I guess. We still have a shot at more, but settle in for a 1 to 3" type deal. Freshen up the snowpack 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12Z GEFS may have been posted in the other thread, it is more optimistic. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, that. map was pretty deceptive. I mean, today set expectations I guess. We still have a shot at more, but settle in for a 1 to 3" type deal. Freshen up the snowpack We’re in goalpost range in my opinion. Low end goalpost is a 1-2 event like the euro, high end is a 3-6 like the GFS. I’d be surprised to see it trend away from us completely, but then again, our last storm basically materialized at 36 hour lead time so who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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