Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: I think since last year that the old bias doesn't apply anymore...Euro seems to lost some of its shine, Ukie has turned into garbage, and somehow the GFS has found a way to be more steady (can remember it holding steady last year while the Euro caved to it). Believe there's a new set of bias that needs figured out. As far as this system, think the pieces are so weak that if you move them 1 county north or south, shear them 3 hrs sooner/later, or even the angle of the press from the northern stream..it has big changes to the final solution. Think the answer is somewhere in the middle. Yeah, I tend to agree with that. The UK...what in the world happened to that model? Also, seems like the Euro tends to be more accurate over the Lower 48 when the trough is in the West. The GFS seems to handle patterns (where there are eastern troughs) just a bit better, especially if the pattern has a lot of moving pieces like the current one. Though the GFS seems to be too aggressive with precip of late. The CMC has not been terrible either. And the Euro has been pretty steady with the past system and this one. Truly, not a bad winter season for the global models this winter. Their ensembles have done reasonably well with the longwave pattern at range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 Gonna roll with this forecast and keep my fingers crossed. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Forum needs a glow sticks rave emoji for a forecast like that above. Reality is that along and north of I-40 and I-81 all systems are go! 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 It will be very interesting to see MRX afternoon discussion in a few hours! Will they go the conservative route or will they be as bullish as they were with the last system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, I tend to agree with that. The UK...what in the world happened to that model? Also, seems like the Euro tends to be more accurate over the Lower 48 when the trough is in the West. The GFS seems to handle patterns (where there are eastern troughs) just a bit better, especially if the pattern has a lot of moving pieces like the current one. Though the GFS seems to be too aggressive with precip of late. The CMC has not been terrible either. And the Euro has been pretty steady with the past system and this one. Truly, not a bad winter season for the global models this winter. Their ensembles have done reasonably well with the longwave pattern at range. Agree...its like someone switched the CMC and Ukie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: Gonna roll with this forecast and keep my fingers crossed. ...That is awesome. After last week's heat wave, I am having a hard time remembering to grab a coat on the way out the door!!! One of my kids even rolled out the door yesterday morning (23F) with not coat on. They haven't had to wear a coat for a couple of weeks! LOL. The above will be a shock to the system!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: I think since last year that the old bias doesn't apply anymore...Euro seems to lost some of its shine, Ukie has turned into garbage, and somehow the GFS has found a way to be more steady (can remember it holding steady last year while the Euro caved to it). Believe there's a new set of bias that needs figured out. As far as this system, think the pieces are so weak that if you move them 1 county north or south, shear them 3 hrs sooner/later, or even the angle of the press from the northern stream..it has big changes to the final solution. Think the answer is somewhere in the middle. Great points ! A little more press from the N would put that Ky area in our area, minus what ds within the Valley would cut back. I recall a east to west system on feb. 15 05 that spread snow across Tn that was supposed to drop much less snow in East Tn due to low rh, ds and temps in mid 40's . Snow began as a short period of rain with a stiff ene wind. It quickly changed to heavy wet snow of which mounted up to 9 inches in 5 hours along the TN/VA border. Quite a synoptic difference with this one but, that goes to show what low dps and heavy rates can do to mitigate downsloping. Models as well as kmrx had went under an in swva counties to 1-3 border counties in Tn. at onset. I recorded 5" in Jonesville. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I'm using weenie rule 14, subsection 5.6: When your local forecast office doesn't have you in an advisory product, look downstream, use another office's product, and extrapolate: Thursday Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 34. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 If I was MRX, I would hold off until 0z on any changes. But if I had to make a decision now, upgrade WSW to a Warning and WWA Loudon/Blount north. 1" or less south of that in the valley. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I noticed that most of the models agree on MSLP placement in north GA, but then it seems to jump to different places in NC at the next frame. It seems like a small energy transfer rather than progression. When the event is unfolding, I'd like to watch where the MSLP, 850, and 500 pressures go. Anyone have a good link to view currents (at least a current as possible) for those types of parameters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1 But I think it sometimes renders those parameters pretty coursely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I'm using weenie rule 14, subsection 5.6: When your local forecast office doesn't have you in an advisory product, look downstream, use another office's product, and extrapolate: Thursday Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 34. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. I honestly can't figure out why Morgan isn't in the WSW. Nor can I figure the WWA for the Mid-State, which looks to be the bullseye in Tennessee. The forecast even calls for warning level snow there. I'd think a WSW is the more fitting product instead of a WWA they say they will probably upgrade to a Winter storm warning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just noticed HUN went with a WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I'm in Ooltewah. I would be shocked if we receive anything. I hope you're correct that we might get a little something. We moved to Ooltewah in June 2016. Other than a dusting here and there, the only snow we've seen was from the February 2020 sunrise snow where we received between 3-4". It was melted and gone by noon. I would love to see a small shift southward and get a good burst of moderate snow. I've seen it happen before in this area, good and bad. Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Cold pushes are notoriously under model when it’s dense cold arctic air at times in modeling. It can often settle further south than modeling anticipates but I’m not sure if this would qualify as that type of situation or not. Seems we have decent cold out in front or at least near bye as the next shot comes in over the top of this s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 12z Euro moves west with the heaviest snow axis. 12z on the left. 6z on the right. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Arctic air situation qualifies everywhere but Chattanooga, lol! Long as the vort max is north we have warm nose risk. Downslope is not as much the issue with northerly rather than easterly winds. Meanwhile the ECMWF is steady. Keeps almost all of Tennessee involved. For Chattanooga see above. Signal and Lookout are good. Oh wow! Kingsport heartburn never ends. Do we cue up Metallica? My Friend of Misery. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Cold pushes are notoriously under model when it’s dense cold arctic air at times in modeling. It can often settle further south than modeling anticipates but I’m not sure if this would qualify as that type of situation or not. Seems we have decent cold out in front or at least near bye as the next shot comes in over the top of this s/w. It’s a fine line. Colder the air the drier the air. That can also mean higher ratios though. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 26 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Long as the vort max is north we have warm nose risk. Last few model runs of the GFS and Euro have inched the 500mb vort max slightly north and it is flatter. Hopefully that trend doesn't continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VOLtage Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Seems as if Blount county is right on the edge of either getting something or hardly anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Re the vort max: Fortunately the flatter / less amped kind of offsets the north. They both keep similar results at the ground. Chattanooga border war. Elsewhere I still think the Upper Valley will be fine, barring a particularly brutal energy transfer debacle. My gut says it'll be OK. Advisories hoisted from North Mississippi and North Alabama northward. MRX will decide in an hour, situated in Eastern Time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RawCrabMeat Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, VOLtage said: Seems as if Blount county is right on the edge of either getting something or hardly anything. Yep, either the mixing line stays South, or it pushes north to knox, don't see it setting up on top of us how often do models correct themselves south 24-36hrs out? Seems like NW jog almost is a law 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Yep, either the mixing line stays South, or it pushes north to knox, don't see it setting up on top of us how often do models correct themselves south 24-36hrs out? Seems like NW jog almost is a lawWe shouldn’t see much more of a correction as of now. I wouldn’t say it’s set in stone but it’s pretty close. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I know I’m running this in the ground some but I’ll be shocked to see a 10 degree temp rise in Knoxville tomorrow. If it really gets down to 27-28 degrees, IMO it will struggle to get past 32°. Assuming all things are equal. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 18z HRRR even warmer for East TN. More snow for the Plateau though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 36 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: We shouldn’t see much more of a correction as of now. I wouldn’t say it’s set in stone but it’s pretty close. . Those southerly winds were quite brisk.We had snow still on our back deck right before dark,i went outside about 10pm,it was all gone.We hit 54 today,not sure it will go up much more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 I'm consistently around the 6" number across all modeling. I always feel like I never want to be there the day before. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, John1122 said: I'm consistently around the 6" number across all modeling. I always feel like I never want to be there the day before. you are sitting pretty my friend. A daytime snow on top of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 thats was old,disco,deleted it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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