TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Gfs goes south lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, TellicoWx said: Gfs goes south lol How far south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 GFS gets the southern border involved. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Nice mean on the GEFS so far, almost whole state covered by 2" mark 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 0z GEFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 GFS gets the southern border involved. All that downsloping effecting the western valley looks legit and uniform. It looks believable IMO. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 03z RAP, it's been the least generous to the far west. There's a model battle that way for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 Forums crashed again for a while there. The Euro is on board for everyone in the region almost. Freezing rain/sleet/light snow in the northern Gulf Coast states, at least an inch in basically all of Tennessee. The Canadian was another monster run for everyone. I would be pretty happy with 50-60 percent of the Canadian run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 06z HRRR has freezing rain along the south edge, especially in west and middle areas of the valley. Snow from HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RawCrabMeat Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 hours ago, bearman said: I did a lot better when I was a kid and just woke up in the morning to a surprise. I was a kid in the late 60’s through the mid 70’s and we had a lot of surprises then. Nothing like a surprise snow honestly. I remember getting out of school early with 3" unforecasted and that was more epic than 8" in 2014 which were modeled beforehand 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 The NAM is fully NAMing western areas and Kentucky. Much more wound up and slower than the other models. Northern Middle into Kentucky are going to jackpot this run. Lots of freezing rain from Memphis NE along the bottom edge of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 NAM just falls apart East of the Plateau. Not sure why and I don't believe it for a second. I think it's way to juiced in Western Kentucky. The 3k is going to be just as juiced almost but it's going to spread east and stay juiced. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 Mountains/Plateau Winter Storm Watch from MRX. Quote URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 315 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 TNZ012>015-018-037-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-VAZ001-002-005-006- 008-052030- /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0001.220106T1700Z-220107T1200Z/ Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Johnson-Union- Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast Carter- Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe- Lee-Wise-Russell-Washington- Including the cities of Big South Fork National, Oneida, Smokey Junction, Elgin, Huntsville, Norma, Slick Rock, Fincastle, La Follette, Elk Valley, Jellico, White Oak, Caryville, Royal Blue, Lone Mountain, Sandlick, Springdale, Arthur, Harrogate-Shawanee, Clairfield, Howard Quarter, Evanston, Sneedville, Kyles Ford, Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Maynardville, Norris Lake, Paulette, Rose Hill, Sharps Chapel, Luttrell, Hartford, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont, Gatlinburg, Citico, Coker Creek, Big Stone Gap, Norton, Wise, Coeburn, Appalachia, Pardee, Hiltons, Hansonville, Lebanon, Dye, Castlewood, Honaker, Rosedale, Benhams, Bristol VA, and Abingdon 315 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 RGem is a slightly south version of the NAM. Stubborn rain/snow line along the southern tier of counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 06z GFS. Looks like the GFS and Euro are on the southern edge of guidance. NAM is on the northern edge and most of the other modeling is in the middle of those two camps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Looks like the 6Z GFS is staying south. I hope it’s right and the NAM is wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Very quite in here, everyone must be staring at models lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 It's like for the lead up to the this, some of the more extreme model camps the models switched sides. Last storm the NAMs were the most suppressed and east, until just before the event, but now they are the furthest north. Last time the Euro was not as consistent as the GFS, but it has consistently shown more snow where the GFS was washed out until about 36 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 6z Euro: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Definite and clear northwest jog trend underway. RGEM and NAM are the best examples. The 6z Euro shows this trend, especially in northern Kentucky. The 6zGFS was pretty steady. Could be the short range models are pretty amped, but....they both started the trend within a run or two of the other. Makes me think some new data has been ingested into modeling. Not surprising, but the extent of the jog on the two short range models is a pretty big jump. Now, they may trend SE again...or they may not. Just have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 The trick is to watch the snow axis, not the eastward extent of the snow. If you live in the eastern valley, the further west that snow axis gets, the more likely the storm loses strength as it moves eastward. Modeling is in two camps right now w the westward trending camp having the most recent runs. Trends matter from this point forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Definite and clear northwest jog trend underway. I was actually thinking I would wake up and the I'd be on the rain/snow line for the 6z runs, lol. WPC forecast actually thinks it will be an icy day for us tomorrow, although they don't give any reasoning in their discussion: "By Thursday, a wave of low pressure is forecast to develop along the arctic front over the Deep South. This low pressure wave is forecast to develop further as it tracks toward the northeast. This will bring an increasing threat of a winter storm from the Tennessee Valley and areas farther northeast on Thursday. The heaviest snow may fall over parts of the Central Appalachians while ice may impact much of Tennessee and northern Mississippi/Alabama." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Sorry meant to add their map too: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I am trying to see this northern trend but the models seem rather steady just a small jog north and west. What am I missing? They have seemed fairly steady with their depection of the snow rain line as far as I can see help me understand what you are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 24 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I was actually thinking I would wake up and the I'd be on the rain/snow line for the 6z runs, lol. WPC forecast actually thinks it will be an icy day for us tomorrow, although they don't give any reasoning in their discussion: "By Thursday, a wave of low pressure is forecast to develop along the arctic front over the Deep South. This low pressure wave is forecast to develop further as it tracks toward the northeast. This will bring an increasing threat of a winter storm from the Tennessee Valley and areas farther northeast on Thursday. The heaviest snow may fall over parts of the Central Appalachians while ice may impact much of Tennessee and northern Mississippi/Alabama." Looks like that map was likely made prior to the 6z RGEM/NAM runs. We will find out in a few hours if those 6z short range models caught an actual trend or amped up a bit much. The RGEM moving that much is a significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, bearman said: I am trying to see this northern trend but the models seem rather steady just a small jog north and west. What am I missing? They have seemed fairly steady with their depection of the snow rain line as far as I can see help me understand what you are seeing. Will get you a comparison map. Give me just a sec. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I don't know I just think the NAM has me spooked. Supposedly it has a knack for sniffing about warm noses/ temp problems : It may not be right, but it is a possible solution. Sometimes surface lows or pieces of them like to ride up into the eastern Great Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 On the other hand the HRRR has recently been the one to show me having precip. type issues and after onset, it doesn't think I have those this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Here's a RGEM trend gif if you want to use it for explanation purposes @Carvers Gap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 The 6z NAM/RGEM have been trending northwestward for several runs. I went ahead and have compared their most recent run to 12z yesterday. The most recent trends usually matter the most. Now, most NW trends tend to stop and come back slightly at the tend. Edit: Forgot to add the Euro run comparison, 0z to 6z. Take a look at the westward expanse of the precip shield and also where the ice is. (New run is on the left. Old run is on the right.). Both have shifted northwestward, though not as pronounced at the RGEM/NAM runs. Watch the northwest edge of the precip. When those shift, it can mean the storm is strong and/or that the entry into the forum area has shifted westward. Here is the Euro comparison from 0z to 6z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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