PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 18z EuroYou know the GFS is kinda showing those same streaks. Not as defined but they are similar . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RawCrabMeat Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 18 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: 18z Euro Is that mixing issues or downsloping in the far east valley bust potential south of 40 it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, RawCrabMeat said: Is that mixing issues or downsloping in the far east valley bust potential south of 40 it seems Mixing issues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, RawCrabMeat said: Is that mixing issues or downsloping in the far east valley bust potential south of 40 it seems Ever slight warm nose (even though the column is very close to that 32° line, it interprets it as rain/mix) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Hopefully 3k Nam falls inline with the others on 0z. It kinda looks like an almost disconnect into separate moisture fields. Could be suggesting what kmrx mentioned as a possible issue; Dry column and saturation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Hopefully 3k Nam falls inline with the others on 0z. It kinda looks like an almost disconnect into separate moisture fields. Could be suggesting what kmrx mentioned as a possible issue; Dry column and saturation. How’d the 3K NAM do with the last system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Actually, pretty decent i think. It usually does rather poor here irt snowfall. Tends to underforecast amounts and is a bit high on Temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 21z RAP. Looks much better for Western areas this run. Still snowing in the far east at this frame. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 21z RAP. Looks much better for Western areas this run. Still snowing in the far east at this frame.Similar streaks as the Euro and GFS. Kinda bizarre . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Possible Namming inbound lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 18 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Similar streaks as the Euro and GFS. Kinda bizarre . I don't know why, models started doing the streaks last year with the Christmas storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 NAM is gonna be a weird run. Had a low up near Asheville at 45, then it was back in NE Georgia at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, John1122 said: NAM is gonna be a weird run. Had a low up near Asheville at 45, then it was back in NE Georgia at 48. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: NAM is gonna be a weird run. Had a low up near Asheville at 45, then it was back in NE Georgia at 48. Yeah, kinda went off the rails that frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 NAM is amped early, slows down, dumps west of the Plateau, north of 40, then weakens as it does a weird handoff and the East doesn't do quite as well, but still does okay. Like a better version of its 06z run this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 The 3k is going to be much much better than 18z. All are mostly quirks of the modeling. The basic idea of a near statewide snow event are still there. I'd think a general 2-4 inches with some big winners and a few who don't do as well, like always. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RawCrabMeat Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Very odd runs from each one it seems really have no idea what to expect but it will be interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, John1122 said: The 3k is going to be much much better than 18z. All are mostly quirks of the modeling. The basic idea of a near statewide snow event are still there. I'd think a general 2-4 inches with some big winners and a few who don't do as well, like always. 3k precip shield looks better than what the snowfall map paints imo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 3k ends up here. Way way better than the near blank it fired out on WVLT at 6pm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 yeah, that's more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RawCrabMeat Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 We all do better when Chattanooga is in on it, imo i remember that surprise from, 2011? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 13 minutes ago, RawCrabMeat said: We all do better when Chattanooga is in on it, imo i remember that surprise from, 2011? Poor Chatt snowlovers. Just to think they somehow tallied 20" in "93 Blizzard ! More than Knox or Tri. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RawCrabMeat Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Poor Chatt snowlovers. Just to think they somehow tallied 20" in "93 Blizzard ! More than Knox or Tri. Lol, yeah chatt can pull some random insane numbers, also in 2011 iirc they got 12" we got 6, one of the most beautiful snows I remember, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 RGEM was solid again. Especially for North of 40 into Kentucky. Think we are seeing the classic N trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 North trends always make me nervous. Living in West Knox this often puts us out of the game. There is still a long way to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RawCrabMeat Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, bearman said: North trends always make me nervous. Living in West Knox this often puts us out of the game. There is still a long way to go. Setting my expectations at 0 in maryville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, RawCrabMeat said: Setting my expectations at 0 in maryville I did a lot better when I was a kid and just woke up in the morning to a surprise. I was a kid in the late 60’s through the mid 70’s and we had a lot of surprises then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 The RGEM is still nice. Just not as bonkers as 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 17 minutes ago, John1122 said: RGEM was solid again. Especially for North of 40 into Kentucky. Think we are seeing the classic N trend. Its sure looking like it unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: The RGEM is still nice. Just not as bonkers as 18z. Don't look now Carvers but, the prominent Kingsport snowholes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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