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Jan 6th-7th 2022 Second Chance Storm


John1122
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12 minutes ago, Greyhound said:


I’m just now starting to use CC on RadarScope and really like it. Do you know what the white stands for? I was noticing a lot of that as the system first started entering Knox Co.


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White is above the value of 1 and I think can be considered untrustworthy. Basically an error. Uniform sized precip like all rain or all snow will be right around the value of 1.  Any reduction in the value is a sign of different sized and shaped objects in the sky. Which is why we see the mixing line so well today. 
 

Also useful tracking tornadoes. Debris will show up as a very low value.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, EastTNWeatherAdmirer said:

It appears a big time BUST could be in store for the East TN central valley and tri cities unlike the GFS, RGEM, CMC, Euro, some NAM runs, WRF's, showed only a short time ago. Latest NAM km, HRRR probably pretty on track with 1''-2.5'' for Maryville, East Knox, Jefferson City, Blaine, Morristown up through Greeneville and Johnson City. Warm nose really overperforming with rain to start at first for most in the central and NE valley. Wrap around moisture could provide a light dusting of an inch overnight. This is one of the most difficult systems I've ever seen. Really sad day for those in East tn who wanted snowimage.png.659aa77b3ede0f8e36eea88bb250a063.pngimage.png.ead38713d689582362a7750e31477886.png

Oh well. I'm still happy with how the last system performed.

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3 minutes ago, EastTNWeatherAdmirer said:

It appears a big time BUST could be in store for the East TN central valley and tri cities unlike the GFS, RGEM, CMC, Euro, some NAM runs, WRF's, showed only a short time ago. Latest NAM km, HRRR probably pretty on track with 1''-2.5'' for Maryville, East Knox, Jefferson City, Blaine, Morristown up through Greeneville and Johnson City. Warm nose really overperforming with rain to start at first for most in the central and NE valley. Wrap around moisture could provide a light dusting of an inch overnight. This is one of the most difficult systems I've ever seen. Really sad day for those in East tn who wanted snowimage.png.659aa77b3ede0f8e36eea88bb250a063.pngimage.png.ead38713d689582362a7750e31477886.png

We're gonna get blanked. Maybe some black ice. Gonna have some coffee and take a hot shower. big time fail for the GFS

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Knoxville zig-zag heartburn update.. Should only last another hour. Hard to see Knox radar but Hytop shows better CC trends. Line is finally dropping south on the Plateau. Should translate east. Remember this is not an elevation problem. It's the storm track. Can't promise anything south of there, but Knoxville should barely hold on snow.

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20 minutes ago, John1122 said:

After that front end thumping, rates have fallen off here and there's a huge break in precip that looks like it will last at least an hour or so. I was headed for glory and 6+ if not for that. 

That's what happened here, the first hour was super heavy and then it trailed off. Except on the radar it still looked heavy even though it was light, small flakes :(

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It appears a big time BUST could be in store for the East TN central valley and tri cities unlike the GFS, RGEM, CMC, Euro, some NAM runs, WRF's, showed only a short time ago. Latest NAM km, HRRR probably pretty on track with 1''-2.5'' for Maryville, East Knox, Jefferson City, Blaine, Morristown up through Greeneville and Johnson City. Warm nose really overperforming with rain to start at first for most in the central and NE valley. Wrap around moisture could provide a light dusting of an inch overnight. This is one of the most difficult systems I've ever seen. Really sad day for those in East tn who wanted snowimage.png.659aa77b3ede0f8e36eea88bb250a063.pngimage.png.ead38713d689582362a7750e31477886.png

No reports of any rain or mix north of 40 in the valley and CC on RadarScope shows that well. We have talked for days that interstate 40 was the line.


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2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

North wind really starting to crank up here. 

Yeah, have a had a north wind since the big snow burst an hour or so ago. Tiny flakes been falling steady here since then. Not really adding up a whole lot, but still have a solid dusting. Just hit 32 a few minutes ago after hanging at 33 for a while. Hopeful I can score at least 2 or 3 out of this event. 

In Knox, a few miles north of 40 and downtown. 

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Been insanely busy with work today, but quick update from my location between Karns & Cedar Bluff. I have stayed all snow since it started around 1. We had a heavy burst of now for about 15 minutes earlier that turned the grass white. Then it stopped for about 10 minutes and has been a flurry/light snow since about 2pm.

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9 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


No reports of any rain or mix north of 40 in the valley and CC on RadarScope shows that well. We have talked for days that interstate 40 was the line.


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I literally live a few hundred feet from I-40 in east Knoxville....I've had mostly snow and sleet with little rain mixed in throughout the day...just not heavy enough rates to accumulate.  The current changeover to snow is now getting the top of the grass white and I'm down to 34 degrees as well.  So, I'm thinking I might be snow only for the duration of the event.

 

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