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Jan 6th-7th 2022 Second Chance Storm


John1122
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Knox County has a pretty brutal cutoff on the HRRR and latest NAM. The city itself is almost the dividing line. A scenario where the northern part of the county could get 2 to 4 inches and the southern part a dusting. However, the GFS and RGEM are generous to all in the county (and the eastern valley). Really curious to see what plays out as it officially nowcasting time. Rooting for the latter for us all! :weenie: 

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1046 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Update this morning to try and refine PoPs/Temps/Wx grids to
reflect current observations. Based on reports the heavier
reflectivities near Marion and Sequatchie county are producing
snowflakes or a wintry mix that is making it to the ground. This
heavier precipitation is really helping to saturate the column,
Most of the reports are coming in from the higher elevations, and
CC product indicates that the "melting layer" is around
2,000-3,000 feet above the surface. With these heavier
reflectivities the wintry precipitation is making it to the
surface even with this freezing level. Expect this trend to
continue as the band of heavier precipitation continues to move
northeastward. Some of the high resolution model guidance
continues the band of heaviest precipitation up the Cumberland
Plateau, and based on observations this looks like it's panning
out so far


.

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Just now, fountainguy97 said:

As soon as heavy clouds rolled in I stopped at 37. Slowly climbing. Afraid it was 2 hrs too late. 

If it makes you feel any better, I doubt it would have mattered. I stayed cloudy all day and still went from 29 to 36 this morning. We are getting light sleet as the column saturates.

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3 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said:

40 degrees in Greeneville. Yall enjoy your snow. We'll make slush angels lol

Haha, about every system we get, it's easier to remember what robbed us rather than how much snow we got. In 2022 we already got WAA and not high enough rates, what's next? Spin the wheel and find out 

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Correlation Coefficient bright band diagnostics looking at both Nashville and Huntsville radar...

West of I-65 snow line is trying to move south, as expected on the back side. Carry on Nashville! Hammer time Upper Plateau!

Bright band is trying to hold over KCHA (our mix) but appears warm air is nosing up too. Knoxville is going to be close. Gut says 850 T drops back side before moisture departs - some snow Knox. Like Vols basketball, you have to sweat it out before the win!

Can't imagine the TRI Cities busting here. Only concerns are the usual local orographics. Gotta take turns.

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Ten Mile on the Roane/Meigs line snow sleet mixture no liquid. Temp stopped climbing at 37 degrees here, hoping that the micro CAD that sometimes forms in Northern Rhea, Roane and Northern Meigs against the eastern escarpment of the plateau helps today, and warm nose hopefully over modeled.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk



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