Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Scratch that last post. Precip is more. Problem is warm-nose which I think will be attributed to a lot of this falling during afternoon daylight hours in E TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 12k NAM result is that there is little to snow accumulation east of the mountains. That said, it upped total precip. Problem is most of it is rain in the eastern valley. If it is wrong about p-type, then snow totals will be higher than forecast. If it is right about p-type, not much snow for the eastern valley (top to bottom). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 2:05 PM, Carvers Gap said: 12k NAM result is that there is little to snow accumulation east of the mountains. That said, it upped total precip. Problem is most of it is rain in the eastern valley. If it is wrong about p-type, then snow totals will be higher than forecast. If it is right about p-type, not much snow for the eastern valley (top to bottom). Expand Could this be a result of the NAM bias of overamping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 As @dwagner88 said we are getting ready for our rainy day in Chattanooga. I doubt any snow later. Initial sleep pellets will be it. Signal and Lookout could get some snow, but I bet less than last time. Knox to TRI axis is a little better relative to the track. Warm valley may be an issue, but I figure snow falls up there later. Regarding 850 Ts it's probably accurate because they do have aircraft. MD drawing even acknowledges the situation with the kink southeast side of the blob. Today is fun for Western and Middle Tennessee, esp Middle. Enjoy the snow! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 My Radar scope is having problems but it looks like mosture is about to get into west knox at least from looking at the radar out of Nashville MRX is an hour and 45 min old. That is moving fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 2:00 PM, Carvers Gap said: Scratch that last post. Precip is more. Problem is warm-nose which I think will be attributed to a lot of this falling during afternoon daylight hours in E TN. Expand I think it's also the lack of clouds across eastern areas this morning. Heavy clouds will move in at the worst time after the sun has already pumped the valley into the 40s. Earlier runs that had less of a warm look never got eastern areas out of the mid/upper 30s. LP is also north. Surging warmth up the west side of the apps. Just not going to work. I've seen this rodeo before. A lot in Eastern NC with clouds rolling in at terrible times lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 2:08 PM, nrgjeff said: As @dwagner88 said we are getting ready for our rainy day in Chattanooga. I doubt any snow later. Initial sleep pellets will be it. Signal and Lookout could get some snow, but I bet less than last time. Knox to TRI axis is a little better relative to the track. Warm valley may be an issue, but I figure snow falls up there later. Regarding 850 Ts it's probably accurate because they do have aircraft. MD drawing even acknowledges the situation with the kink southeast side of the blob. Today is fun for Western and Middle Tennessee, esp Middle. Enjoy the snow! Expand Don’t waffle on us now @nrgjeff! You’ve been saying all along that we were good to go in the Central and Northern Valley!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 2:09 PM, fountainguy97 said: I think it's also the lack of clouds across eastern areas this morning. Heavy clouds will move in at the worst time after the sun has already pumped the valley into the 40s. Earlier runs that had less of a warm look never got eastern areas out of the mid/upper 30s. LP is also north. Surging warmth up the west side of the apps. Just not going to work. I've seen this rodeo before. A lot in Eastern NC with clouds rolling in at terrible times lol. Expand Cloud deck in knox is solid and it looks like virga is already over top of me. It came racing in fast. Most likely just the weenie in me hoping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 2:09 PM, fountainguy97 said: I think it's also the lack of clouds across eastern areas this morning. Heavy clouds will move in at the worst time after the sun has already pumped the valley into the 40s. Earlier runs that had less of a warm look never got eastern areas out of the mid/upper 30s. LP is also north. Surging warmth up the west side of the apps. Just not going to work. I've seen this rodeo before. A lot in Eastern NC with clouds rolling in at terrible times lol.We are socked in with clouds N Knox Co. The sun was only out for 30 min or so. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Temp is 31. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 For what it's worth, most forecasts were showing my area to be close to 39 already and it's barely moved above 33 in most spots. Honestly at this point I'm looking at this at a nowcasting situation and saying the models are smoking something good (wishful thinking) lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 2:18 PM, PowellVolz said: Temp is 31 . Expand Going back to your original line of thinking yesterday. Don’t see how temps are going to warm up too much today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Radar shows precip over me but nothing reaching the ground yet, temperature has risen a bit to 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 What a tiime for Radar Scope to fail. Nashville is the only one working for me. It shows mosture over me know in Knox so we are going to see what happens very soon I hope. I am at 31 in west Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 2:22 PM, Vol4Life said: Going back to your original line of thinking yesterday. Don’t see how temps are going to warm up too much today. Expand I'm not buying it, unless there is a dynamic at play I don't understand it doesn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Temp has dropped from 31 to 28 in the past hour here in Franklin as the heavy snow continues. Hope the moisture field holds together and the storm slows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 2:09 PM, bearman said: My Radar scope is having problems but it looks like mosture is about to get into west knox at least from looking at the radar out of Nashville MRX is an hour and 45 min old. That is moving fast. Expand Having the same problems with Radarscope in regards to the Morristown MRX radar. Latest reading is over 2 hours old, while Nashville MRX reading is current. Poor time for this to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I have currently got a verga storm. Hope it does not last all day. I have seen that happen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 2:22 PM, Vol4Life said: Going back to your original line of thinking yesterday. Don’t see how temps are going to warm up too much today.Surface temps isn’t the problem. It’s 850’s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xAllVolsx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 2:29 PM, kvskelton said: Having the same problems with Radarscope in regards to the Morristown MRX radar. Latest reading is over 2 hours old, while Nashville MRX reading is current. Poor time for this to happen. Expand For some reason Nashville is way off for southern middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricaneguy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 It's wild seeing all this beautiful snow across the state and knowing that it's going to fizzle out in the Eastern Valley starting in just a few hours. Crazy. It looks like we would get so much at first glance of the map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Anyway to go back and look at the 850’s in Nashville like 4 hours ago? I mean… it seems to me 850’s would go up a bit in front of a system and crash as the core gets closer. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Weather is so complicated woth so many moving parts. It is a miracle and a lot of hard work and thought that we do as good as we do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 We have a heavy virga storm here West of Crossville currently. It's coming down hard. I measured 1/2" of virga in only 20 minutes. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 The blue dot is my house. This has to be a virga storm because we haven't had anything fall from the sky in Ooltewah.Added channel 9 radar. Showing same thing as TWC radar.Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 As far as my area, can confirm the 850s are rising. Valley areas here are sitting around 32, but the mountains are running 35-36 above 1500-2000' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 2:44 PM, TellicoWx said: As far as my area, can confirm the 850s are rising. Valley areas here are sitting around 32, but the mountains are running 35-36 above 1500-2000' Expand Is there any way the snow breaks through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 2:45 PM, McMinnWx said: Is there any way the snow breaks through? Expand Not until the center passes, but with this being a weak system not alot to work with on the back side..like Jeff said, start as a quick period of sleet maybe, then cold rain is what I'm looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 The Virga here has transitioned into baby snowflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 It’s been puking snow here since just before 8am. We’ve picked up 1” in about 45 minutes. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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