Dsty2001 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Kind of confused, typically isn't dry air associated more with cold? From my experience it's either a cold dry column or a warm nose, maybe im confusing something here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 OHX had another big expansion of their WSW. Now includes most of their CWA, including Nashville proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 The RAP has fired the first 12 inch shot in the mid-State. maybe it's best run for the whole state yet. MRX noted the downsloping in the NE areas due to the angle of approach. If you tend to get downsloped in NE Tn from the Smokies/Roane, this may be one where you get less than others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 My updated zone forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 My point forecast says 3-7 inches with up to 1 inch tonight. My zone says 2-6 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 Not sure how much lower I'll get, but am currently at 28.2. Have been below freezing since 11 pm. There's still patchy snow on the ground in shady, north facing spots even after hitting the upper 40s today. MRX does say that it will begin as rain here, basically it only has above 2200ft beginning as snow in the point forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 The GFS saved it's best shot for last. I'm hoping that we can pull off even 50-60 percent of this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 The very rare forum wide winter advisory map. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 When did they change it to a WSW ? Just curious. Temperature is down to 24 here between Crossville and Monterey ( closer to Monterey actually) , so I guess we won't be getting much rain, if any ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 From SPC, 1"-2"+ HR rates 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Well I am currently sitting at 29 degrees. We may get a little light sleet before WAAing into a lovely 34 degree rain all day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFranklin88 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Admittedly, not an expert but I thought the 6z RGEM and 12k/3k NAM looked better for the central valley on tropical tidbits. Nowcast time anyways probably but just a question for those who know better . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Radar looks nice to the southwest. Dovie'andi se tovya sagain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 MRX chopped my totals in half. This is usually good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 If nothing else IMO this is trending faster onset over the past few runs: Based on that radar, I wouldn't be surprised to have virga or maybe even precip reaching the ground by the 10 o'clock hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 16 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: MRX chopped my totals in half. This is usually good . Funny you should say that. Their computer generated forcast does crazy things. My forcast for west knox has increased. Today A chance of rain before 1pm, then rain and snow between 1pm and 3pm, then snow after 3pm. High near 37. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. They added an inch possibe on my night time forcast which had nothing before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Funny you should say that. Their computer generated forcast does crazy things. My forcast for west knox has increased.Today A chance of rain before 1pm, then rain and snow between 1pm and 3pm, then snow after 3pm. High near 37. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. They added an inch possibe on my night time forcast which had nothing before. Mine was 2-4” when I went to bed and I haven’t seen anything that would change my outlook . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 If Your In central Tn the radar looks really good for you guys. Just some light freezing rain so far on the southwest side of the state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 From MRX disco…Although snow may start to fall between 2-4 PM, itmay not be cold enough at the surface for accumulation until 4-6PM. There is considerable spread in the SREF plumes at TRI andTYS, but the main cluster of members is between 1-3 inches at TRI,and 0.5 to 2 at TYS. With this in mind, the Advisory will bemaintained for this area. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I must admit I do not have a lot of meteorological knowledge but have observed the weather since I was a small child. Seen setups like this many times. With the due west component sometimes cold air can get traped in the valley. The other thing that can happen is high clouds come in and allow the sun to heat the low levels and then the cloud deck moves in and traps the heat which evaporative cooling can not over come. Living in the vally has so many things that can effect our chances for snow. Just have to wait and see what happens, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Virga might delay onset, but I think they're going to be wrong abut the onset, especially in Morgan county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8283 El Nino Baby Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 25 on the central plateau with the tip of the snow showing as just a few miles west. It may not be hitting the ground. Either way, the radar is not matching the sleet fest shown on NAM. Or are temps are supposed to rise quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Well the sun is about to pop out in the valley, so we are toast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Virga might delay onset, but I think they're going to be wrong abut the onset, especially in Morgan county. I agree. I get it for Knox Co but Anderson and Morgan IMO will be ok. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Brilliant sunrise up here on the plateau. I tried to edit it a bit to capture the colors, but no way to do it justice: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Looks like some interstate problems in west TN: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Looks like the dry air is being overcome pretty quickly near Nashville: I'm guessing those bright returns are a sleet and snow mix, but not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 12 minutes ago, Kasper said: Well the sun is about to pop out in the valley, so we are toast Here come the sun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Looks like the dry air is being overcome pretty quickly near Nashville: I'm guessing those bright returns are a sleet and snow mix, but not sure. Buddy of mine just texted me it’s snowing in Franklin . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Jackson Tn. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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