John1122 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 We are 48 hours or so from this potential system beginning in Western areas of the forum. We have concensus model agreement of a system sliding south of the forecast area, leaving us in the cold sector. Temps in advance are way better than yesterday's set up, which worked well for some and skipped others. Any rain here looks to be brief before the snow starts in snow favored areas. Though most areas are modeled to begin as snow and stay snow. The track of the 850 low was pretty classic for snow events nearly valley wide, though the southern border, as currently modeled, would probably see temperature issues. Should be an interesting 48 hours of model watching. This is a good second chance for some who missed the best bands yesterday. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 The overnight global were on board for this event. 6z continued the party. The GFS and RGEM snow maps are below. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6z NAM is north and is a KY snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Here are the 6z GEFS members: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6z Euro: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 46 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 6z Euro: Steady back to back runs from the Euro. I am still holding out hope this can snow for more of those back west of the TN river. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Nice shift south on 12z NAM 850 entering near Memphis instead of Paducah...should be a decent run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 13 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Nice shift south on 12z NAM 850 entering near Memphis instead of Paducah...should be a decent run I need it to dip just a BIT further south! McMinn County is dangerously on the edge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, McMinnWx said: I need it to dip just a BIT further south! McMinn County is dangerously on the edge. RGEM shifted a tad south as well...NAM would have looked better but LLJ was too far out in front as it entered the state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Definitely one of those storms where the top end is likely 6". Any more amped for more moisture and this thing misses us all to the north. Models really have locked on to a pretty decent track for a lot of TN. But I'm wary of the NW trend over the next day. Atleast this one is our more favorable cold ground higher ratio event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I like the GFS/Euro blend. NAM is still probably too north the 12Z run. UK Met is with the other globals south of the NAM. Still blanks Chattanooga. However it looks really similar to Sunday night. Add more for Western Tenn. If we can get a more diffuse northern boundary then Kentucky remains well in play. Track may be broader north and west. South side (KCHA) still has warm nose issues. Also does not line up as well for North Alabama (still light snow but not nearly as much). 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 GFS looks similar to 6z...touch south, less warm nose in southern valley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12z GFS close to a copy of the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Not sure why Pivotal is running so slow for the GFS, but below is the TT snowfall map for the event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12z CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 That's not bad right above. 1-2 West. My conceptual model has 1-3 most of Mid-Tenn, except far southern. Then 3-5 looks reasonable Upper Cumberland into Kentucky. Upper Great Valley should do better than last time. Chart looks similar at higher elevations with 6-8. KCHA remains a big warm nose risk. Signal and Lookout get snow again though. GFS below must be forecasting some banding. Not unreasonable, somewhere in the Region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 GFS finally loaded on pivotal 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: GFS finally loaded on pivotal Is this on a 10:1 ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Matthew70 said: Is this on a 10:1 ratio? No it's Kuchera..ratios little better with this system then the last 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 The ratio's are showing up from 11 to 15:1 as the event unfolds. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Besides the fluke 6z NAM where it was being the typical NAM over amping, this should be a good event board wide. Only areas of concern to me are 1) as Jeff said the very southern valley with its slight warm nose (trends have been slowly inching to a little better solution there) and 2) the moisture return near the Memphis/NW TN area. Less amping of the system doesn't get the moisture feed going until a hair late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I might jinx it, but we don’t often get fairly clean opportunities for snow in TN. Hope this is one of those times. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12z Euro ticks south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Euro looking good for MBY this run: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Bullseye TYS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: Bullseye TYS It's a Holston River special, lol. Knoxville to Kingsport, at least in TN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Never seen KNX get the most snow before, but Euro just hammers the greater valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Odd looking snow holes in Sullivan and Washington counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12z Euro has a better moisture transport up the valley without blasting the LLJ (warm nose) up it..compared to say the 12z GFS which doesn't veer the LLJ as good up from the gulf (source region)...interesting to watch which has the better handle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: 12z Euro has a better moisture transport up the valley without blasting the LLJ (warm nose) up it..compared to say the 12z GFS which doesn't veer the LLJ as good up from the gulf (source region)...interesting to watch which has the better handle. I remember a couple February's ago when this happened with rain and Knoxville got 5+ inches of rain, but can't remember this ever happening with snow. If this happens, great for mby, but hopefully we all score on this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now