Ericjcrash Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 You guys are locked and loaded for at least a 3-6" deal. If guidance would stop chasing convection it could get really fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 50 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nws going with 3 inches in NYC. There will also be higher ratios with this. With how this winter has gone so far, take 1-3 inches and run with it, I’m sure no one will be complaining. I only have 0.5 inches total up here, first time I can ever remember it being this bad at this time of the season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: With how this winter has gone so far, take 1-3 inches and run with it, I’m sure no one will be complaining. I only have 0.5 inches total up here, first time I can ever remember it being this bad at this time of the season Agree man I have 0.2 Even Boston only has 0.4 Awful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Looks like the euro shifted west a bit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: With how this winter has gone so far, take 1-3 inches and run with it, I’m sure no one will be complaining. I only have 0.5 inches total up here, first time I can ever remember it being this bad at this time of the season 2.1” on the season up this way.. absolutely brutal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 The few dustings I had this winter add up to maybe 0.5” or so. Monday was brutal. Good to see the system trending west. This won’t be a huge system here due to the fact it’s getting it’s act together as it goes by and it being a fast mover. But I could see people getting 6” if we keep this more amped trend. VV’s look impressive as well which would make for some nice banding features where it can go to town. The most likely people for that would be east of the city for now but we’ll see how much longer the trend goes on. Still time for it to continue. I wouldn’t want it for MBY any further west than the new RGEM has for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 06z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, snywx said: 2.1” on the season up this way.. absolutely brutal. You're crushing it...1.5" for me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 HRRR long range would be an ideal track. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 The deformation banding much more a function of timing of the deepening low. Seems like a late bloomer that has upside potential, but most likely scenario still a light/moderate event. 12Z NAM is a good example of what happene if it deepens even just slightly on the later side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 42 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: You're crushing it...1.5" for me That's almost double what I have so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Rgem looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 WPC winter disco This forecast cycle showed an eastern trend, keeping the low track far enough offshore such that the QPF/snow forecast trended downward, especially inland/interior areas. With the signal for the system to be 1) more offshore and 2) very fast moving - probabilities of heavy snow have decreased this cycle, however there continues to be some ensemble support for a stronger/closer system so over the next several days the details will ironed out https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 This convection to the east is really driving the NAM batty. Hate to say it but the RGEM’s been a lot more consistent. GFS seems to be doing the same with the convection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: HRRR long range would be an ideal track. I know long range HRRR should be taken with a grain of salt, but for the last event that missed us to the south we never had HRRR on our side. It kept showing the accumulations staying to our south. Hopefully the fact that 12z HRRR is showing significant snow for our area is a good sign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: This convection to the east is really driving the NAM batty. Hate to say it but the RGEM’s been a lot more consistent. GFS seems to be doing the same with the convection. Look at H5. The problem is not convection. Precipitation isn't generated by the L on the map. It's generated by vertical ascent, which is determined by the upper levels just like surface pressure is. So precipitation and SLP are caused by the same thing. The NAM run that was tucked had a much sharper trof. The weaker runs were flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 The little low today is ruining the storm. Suppressing the heights. Nice storm for SNJ and parts of the Mid Atlantic For our area, 1-3 inches is a good call unless the models trend favorable tonight and tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The little low today is ruining the storm. Suppressing the heights. Nice storm for SNJ and parts of the Mid Atlantic For our area, 1-3 inches is a good call unless the models trend favorable tonight and tomorrow. Maybe the Canadians will be right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The little low today is ruining the storm. Suppressing the heights. Nice storm for SNJ and parts of the Mid Atlantic For our area, 1-3 inches is a good call unless the models trend favorable tonight and tomorrow. Agreed. Main moisture transport is well out in the Atlantic (GFS) plus it's a quick mover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Gefs is way east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The little low today is ruining the storm. Suppressing the heights. Nice storm for SNJ and parts of the Mid Atlantic For our area, 1-3 inches is a good call unless the models trend favorable tonight and tomorrow. Agree with you. It’s a 1-3 event, which we said before is a win when you are into the first week of January with less than an inch for the season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Agree with you. It’s a 1-3 event, which we said before is a win when you are into the first week of January with less than an inch for the season Yep Very sad lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep Very sad lol There's still a possibility of it blowing up fast near the coast. I don't think models will be able to figure that out till tomorrow. Either way the lack of a +PNA hurts this system but there will be much better opportunities going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep Very sad lol I hate LaNina’s. I’ll take my chances with ElNino every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: There's still a possibility of it blowing up fast near the coast. I don't think models will be able to figure that out till tomorrow. Either way the lack of a +PNA hurts this system but there will be much better opportunities going forward. Miller B’s rarely work out for our area. We have to deal with subsidence issues more often than not. Hoping for a weak/moderate ElNino next winter. Give me some Miller A’s to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Miller B’s rarely work out for our area. We have to deal with subsidence issues more often than not. Hoping for a weak/moderate ElNino next winter. Give me some Miller A’s to track. This event looks like a Miller A. The SLP develops in the South and moves NE up the coast with very little hint of transfer. There's no midwestern clipper low or primary transferring to a coastal low. That's pretty classic Miller A. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: At this point we’re pretty close to the event I guess tonight’s model runs are going to be the most important Famous last words... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I think 1-3 inches is a good prediction but have to say there is potential for more. Models still seem sort of confused about this with some very strung out and disorganized and some more wound up near the coast. I would also say pay attention to what happens in Ohio because i've noticed almost all the models that end up decent for us get decent snow into southern Ohio. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 46 minutes ago, eduggs said: This event looks like a Miller A. The SLP develops in the South and moves NE up the coast with very little hint of transfer. There's no midwestern clipper low or primary transferring to a coastal low. That's pretty classic Miller A. So what is the explanation for the gap in precip that many models are showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 there's a banding signal showing up on the href for our area 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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