bluewave Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 42 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: Its useful in those very specific situations but it really struggles with overdoing its QPF fairly often too. Yeah, overdoing precipitation and underestimating surface temperatures in strong WAA are a few if it’s biases. But changing over to a FV3 CAM based version may introduce whole new set of strengths and weaknesses. I know forecasters struggled through the recent GFS upgrades with all the new errors and biases that needed fixes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 18Z GFS east, 18Z RGEM west. 18Z NAM about the same as 12z with setup but very little snow. Models still don't have a good handle on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Upton has 4 inches here To me this has always been a 3-6 inch event for the area, theres a lot of typical model noise going on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 With 48 hours out model watches look for "the trend is your friend" to forecast the potential snowfall. I personally was taught MOS versus dynamic models for short range weather forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, bluewave said: Yeah, overdoing precipitation and underestimating surface temperatures in strong WAA are a few if it’s biases. But changing over to a FV3 CAM based version may introduce whole new set of strengths and weaknesses. I know forecasters struggled through the recent GFS upgrades when the new model kept showing so many long range snowfall false alarms. I've long felt the consistent tinkering of these models is becoming a fools errand on several fronts and leading to more significant forecaster error. A lot of these billed upgrades lead to only minor skill improvements and the yearly updates in an attempt to bias correct make it exceedingly difficult to figure out what those biases are from year to year. Bybthe time you get the bias down it changes. That said, the one constant bias has been Euro massively overdoing low level cold after a snowfall. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: 18Z GFS east, 18Z RGEM west. 18Z NAM about the same as 12z with setup but very little snow. Models still don't have a good handle on this one. They won't until all the pieces are onshore and well sampled. Still could see some good swings. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 47 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: 18z RGEM Cant ask for a better track than that, if pattern was less progressive it could have been big or I guess on glass half empty side it could have been rain so take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, NittanyWx said: I've long felt the consistent tinkering of these models is becoming a fools errand on several fronts and leading to more significant forecaster error. A lot of these billed upgrades lead to only minor skill improvements and the yearly updates in an attempt to bias correct make it exceedingly difficult to figure out what those biases are from year to year. Bybthe time you get the bias down it changes. That said, the one constant bias has been Euro massively overdoing low level cold after a snowfall. Yeah, that has been a well known bias along with the surface wind gusts. I know they seem to have reduced the wind gust error in the latest upgrade. The best storm track performance that I have seen from the Euro was Sandy and Nemo from the longer range. It may be that there is something about the model that handles phasing better than other models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Model Output Statistics (MOS) for New York City, NY. Thursday PM to Friday AM-Q24 numbers of 1 & 3-light snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The NAM usually does a pretty good job from around 24hrs out. That’s why I am not a big fan of replacing it with some FV3 based CAM. Not sure why they don’t just stick with the NAM and upgrade it regularly like Canada does with the RGEM. The NAM does a great job when dry air is involved like yesterday. It excels when there is a warm tongue between 900 and 750 mb. And when there is a legit very heavy snow threat like January 2016 it’s a strong performer also. I love the NAM it hit a grand slam with Jan 2016 and a few other of our really big storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, Torch said: Those NAM runs were jaw dropping, and very hard to believe. One time it actually ended up right on precip amounts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 41 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: 18Z GFS east, 18Z RGEM west. 18Z NAM about the same as 12z with setup but very little snow. Models still don't have a good handle on this one. That actually sounds like a pretty good handle. No discernable trend - take the average. It's not really possible for them to show exactly the same surface weather 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Where are all you fellas who say how well the models usual do ? As far as the rest of you guys who are giving up on this or living model run to model run / or shooting this one down with more than 2 days to go = all I can say is I don't know as much as most of you ( not even close ) but I know enough to see that the threat is still out there and very much alive. There is a long way to go with this one it is far from a done deal -->either way. Now carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Where are all you fellas who say how well the models usual do ? As far as the rest of you guys who are giving up on this or living model run to model run / or shooting this one down with more than 2 days to go = all I can say is I don't know as much as most of you ( not even close ) but I know enough to see that the threat is still out there and very much alive. There is a long way to go with this one it is far from a done deal -->either way. Now carry on The models do very well. Don’t manufacture a storm. Don’t manufacturer a bust. Right now the models are telling you there is going to be some snow Friday. Now the old Mr G line: “some snow or some snow?” That is TBD Im glad GFS is east…that means it will be a blizzard given its record this year 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, jfklganyc said: The models do very well. Don’t manufacture a storm. Don’t manufacturer a bust. Right now the models are telling you there is going to be some snow Friday. Now the old Mr G line: “some snow or some snow?” That is TBD Im glad GFS is east…that means it will be a blizzard given its record this year I used to watch him when I was a kid. I remember him using that 5 days before the blizzard of '96. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Even if everything worked out perfect, wouldn’t the speed of this system cut our chances of big snows Friday? I mean obviously I hope I’m wrong. Yes definitely. But 6"+ for a chunk of our subforum isn't out of the question if things line up properly. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 22 minutes ago, Rjay said: Yes definitely. But 6"+ for a chunk of our subforum isn't out of the question if things line up properly. Jersey Shore and central and eastern LI have greatest chance IMO for 6 inches according to current guidance 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 58 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Even if everything worked out perfect, wouldn’t the speed of this system cut our chances of big snows Friday? I mean obviously I hope I’m wrong. Ask the people down in VA along the I95 corridor if the fast moving system yesterday limited the effects too much 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 As someone else pointed out before the storms are so much more powerful… Even if they are fast moving you can get a heavy duty haul 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 26 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Ask the people down in VA along the I95 corridor if the fast moving system yesterday limited the effects too much They had a massive push of GOM moisture out ahead of a robust and sharpening southern stream wave. The Thursday night event will not have that. We'll have to do more with less. Ratios should be much better, but we shouldn't be expecting .3" liquid hourly QPF totals this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Eps is west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: So NOW is it party time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Looking good, will see what happens. Still plenty of time and models to evaluate, etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 42 minutes ago, eduggs said: They had a massive push of GOM moisture out ahead of a robust and sharpening southern stream wave. The Thursday night event will not have that. We'll have to do more with less. Ratios should be much better, but we shouldn't be expecting .3" liquid hourly QPF totals this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 60 hours is an eternity in weather land. Plenty of time for changes 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 30 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: So NOW is it party time? Yea Its Miller B time ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 32 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps is west 18 Z / Any graphics ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 18 Z / Any graphics ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Bring it west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: 60 hours is an eternity in weather land. Plenty of time for changes Just saw that with the last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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