SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 13 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: You can still put up big numbers if the lift is intense enough. Boston saw a 12” storm in December 03 which was supposed to be 2-4” but instead it snowed 2-4” an hour for a couple hours I am always wary these recent years of assuming fast speed means less QPF...this is not 1990 anymore, the warm SSTs in the WATL and other factors are leading to way more banding features in these storms now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 yup 2-4 inches of snow that doesn't mix or changeover is highly underrated. Agreed! I like those moderate all-snow storms that are in the 6-12 range… pretties things up, it’s cold so it’s powder, easy to clean, no ice, but doesn’t break your back clearing it off.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 GFS and CMS SE of last runs... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: GFS and CMS SE of last runs... Midatlantic, Eastern LI and SENE seem to do well on latest GFS, not bad for the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, romba said: Midatlantic, Eastern LI and SENE seem to do well on latest GFS, not bad for the NYC area Rich get richer this run. Never thought in a Nina like this that DC to ACY would be on the cusp of significant snow on snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I think we in a good spot for this one. 3-6/ 4/8 type deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Rich get richer this run. Never thought in a Nina like this that DC to ACY would be on the cusp of significant snow on snow. Mind you, 1972-73 was a strong El Nino, but there was this during the winter of NYC's lowest seasonal snowfall: https://www.weather.gov/ilm/Feb1973Snow At least one location in Florida got more snow that day than NYC did the entire season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Pretty solid agreement now on a 3-6 inch type event for most of the area. A small shift NW would help but this is a pretty good spot for a storm for us 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Are models showing rain at the back end? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 That shortwave is still very strong so it wouldn't shock me to see things amp up as we get closer. I do like that models shifted further SE today because it gives us more wiggle room in case things amp up tomorrow or Thursday. If models showed an amped solution today I'd be worried. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: That shortwave is still very strong so it wouldn't shock me to see things amp up as we get closer. I do like that models shifted further SE today because it gives us more wiggle room in case things amp up tomorrow or Thursday. There’s a lead S/W that’s dampening the ridge off the east coast, which might lessen how much this can amp up. Also it’s a progressive overall pattern with the ridge out west nudging the trough east. But there’s still plenty of time for changes that would affect what we each get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: The positives with this storm is the fresh cold air moving in before the storm arrives and the track of the storm - the negative is its a fast mover........... If the banding is there for 6 hours, you get as yesterday 1-2 inches/ hour and thunder snow. I have not looked at any 12z guidance. I guess fast moving will cap max amount at whatever value but if this times with the morning, there will be big impact. Note yesterday Fredericksburg. Also this argues my own bias to prep early and that all of us understand in advance the consequences of eliminating the broader range of possibilities. Off line now through 5p. Have a day. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That shortwave is still very strong so it wouldn't shock me to see things amp up as we get closer. I do like that models shifted further SE today because it gives us more wiggle room in case things amp up tomorrow or Thursday. If models showed an amped solution today I'd be worried. Agree with this totally, I actually think this a DC-SNJ jackpot 3 days out usually ends up very good for our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 RGEM south, scrapes NYC. Not getting my hopes up for more than a couple of inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, romba said: RGEM south, scrapes NYC. Not getting my hopes up for more than a couple of inches. The models still a bit all over the place, 6z runs were NW, 12Z runs were SE. I think probability of at least 3 inches is pretty good right for immediate tri state area but probably have a better idea of jackpot zone by 0Z tonight or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 UKMET still way east but it actually did tick west from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: The models still a bit all over the place, 6z runs were NW, 12Z runs were SE. I think probability of at least 3 inches is pretty good right for immediate tri state area but probably have a better idea of jackpot zone by 0Z tonight or tomorrow. sure, but I'd obviously rather the all over the place = better runs now when they're honing in on the trajectory, versus better on previous cycles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 My thinking is that the track will probably end up a bit south and east of ideal. That said, again southern NJ and eastern Long Island could jackpot with 6-10" in a few spots but more likely 3-8" closer to NYC. Less north/west more south/east. If the ECMWF ends up being or trending more towards the UKMET, I'll keep the idea of a repeat of Monday's near miss in the back of my mind. WX/PT 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Euro looks pretty lousy but still 72 hours to go with this for some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Euro looks pretty lousy but still 72 hours to go with this for some changes. Yep for good or for worse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 OPC near benchmark prog not a bad look overall.... for the crew here imho https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.php 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, Doorman said: OPC near benchmark prog not a bad look overall.... for the crew here imho https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.php The legend returns!! Welcome back 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Eps further east and weak I will be praying to the snow gods later on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps further east and weak I will be praying to the snow gods later on Further east? Just this morning we were worried about possible mixing issues! I need a new hobby. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Further east? Just this morning we were worried about possible mixing issues! I need a new hobby. This is such a chaotic pattern because of the fast flow that it’s hard to jump onto anything more than 72hrs out. It’s still a very vigorous trough and S/W coming in so it wouldn’t take much for it to come back west. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12z eps members. Gut feeling is we see some adjustments back west come tomorrow. But we'll see. Long way to go in today's modeling world. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just not our winter. Finding ways for it to not snow 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 12z eps members. Gut feeling is we see some adjustments back west come tomorrow. But we'll see. Long way to go in today's modeling world. Yeah, seems like a good amount of lean to the west. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 model mayhem continues. it’s fitting though just not our winter thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now