NittanyWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Trying to thread the needle, but I'd say accumulation chances are >50% for 2" or more in NYC Metro at this stage. Agree that there are still over amp risks, but this is a decent spot to be inside 60 hours. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 36 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Upton’s current call map from overnight. Seems like they are leaning away from the amped/west track and more weaker offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Seems like they are leaning away from the amped/west track and more weaker offshore. Good map this far out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Seems like they are leaning away from the amped/west track and more weaker offshore. It only goes out to Friday 7am. Storm is still ongoing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6z eps is tightening up the spread a bit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 40 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Seems like they are leaning away from the amped/west track and more weaker offshore. Maybe most of the area can squeeze out at least a WWA for this small and or moderate event........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Maybe most of the area can squeeze out a WWA for this small event........ Too early to say if this will be a small or moderate event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I believe at this point just watching how the models are playing out is all you can do. Trying to figure potential snow totals is basically guessing, but it can be fun and an interesting challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, lee59 said: I believe at this point just watching how the models are playing out is all you can do. Trying to figure potential snow totals is basically guessing, but it can be fun and an interesting challenge. Pin this post for every potential snow threat every winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Maybe most of the area can squeeze out at least a WWA for this small and or moderate event........ At this point I'll take an inch hell even a dusting would work 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: At this point I'll take an inch hell even a dusting would work plowable snow or 70's for me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Rgem shifted west Forky might be right about dealing with sleet. Forky tends to be right more often then not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 hours ago, wdrag said: Modeling is tending to try for a neg tilt intensifying nor'easter. Best snowfall north of our area since ensembled 850 LOW is still north of us. Added 00z/4 GEFS spaghetti and NWS ensemble chance of 6". THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE guidance after 12z/Friday. The idea Is I95 could serve as a mix boundary? Something wintry is coming, especially interior. The heaviest precipitation has been modeled (GEFS, GEPS) along and south of I-95 for several runs with the heaviest in eastern NE. All major models have snow to the coast except the 6z NAM. So those graphics look a little funny. Ending at 12z Friday takes out most of what falls in NE. But I think those probs. heavily weigh members of the NAM model family...? Maybe the NAM is on to something. There is plenty of room for this to hook even further NW with a neutral tilt and vortmax in AR/MS by 0z Fri. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 39 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 6z eps is tightening up the spread a bit. That is a thing of beauty. A lot of members have it bombing out, but it's moving awfully fast. If we had blocking, this would be doozey. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Nam coming in weaker and South so far.... 12z: 6z: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, romba said: Nam coming in weaker and South so far.... 12z: 6z: It's already out Nice little hit and east of the 6z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Yeah the 12z is a little less sharp than 06z aloft. This run it kind of matches inter-model consensus. Mostly all snow for the entire area. .25-.5" QPF. Clips eastern MA with heavier stuff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, EasternLI said: 6z eps is tightening up the spread a bit. looks like an offshore track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, eduggs said: Yeah the 12z is a little less sharp than 06z aloft. This run it kind of matches inter-model consensus. Mostly all snow for the entire area. .25-.5" QPF. Clips eastern MA with heavier stuff. cool thats just fine, no need for an amped up storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Thankfully in this case we have such a progressive pattern. The next trough is pushing into the NW and nudging the ridge/trough east ahead of it. That might keep our storm offshore although it probably also results in it developing later. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: cool thats just fine, no need for an amped up storm agree - then mixing and or changeover issues come into play especially near the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Thankfully in this case we have such a progressive pattern. The next trough is pushing into the NW and nudging the ridge/trough east ahead of it. That might keep our storm offshore although it probably also results in it developing later. I think most would be fine with 2-4 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: agree - then mixing and or changeover issues come into play especially near the coast yup 2-4 inches of snow that doesn't mix or changeover is highly underrated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I'd take this look all day long. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: I think most would be fine with 2-4 inches of snow speak for yourself. I mean, I'll be thankful for anything but the more the merrier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I'd take this look all day long. I’d have to think there would be a 4-8” swath with a look like that. That would be some heavy snow for a few hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I'd take this look all day long. Intense lift for a couple hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 We're dealing with a little bit of a transition from the initial inland surface reflection and associated precipitation in PA to the developing coastal low. It's possible I-95 or just inland sees a bit of a precipitation minimum as the transition skips over this area and refocuses closer to the coastal. The precipitation shield as modeled looks to be shrinking and tightening as the SLP winds up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: Intense lift for a couple hours. The positives with this storm is the fresh cold air moving in before the storm arrives and the track of the storm - the negative is its a fast mover........... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 16 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I’d have to think there would be a 4-8” swath with a look like that. That would be some heavy snow for a few hours. You can still put up big numbers if the lift is intense enough. Boston saw a 12” storm in December 03 which was supposed to be 2-4” but instead it snowed 2-4” an hour for a couple hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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