North and West Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 If there was blocking would this be a much bigger storm right That’s assuming all other data points were identical, which we would have no way of knowing.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I keep on hearing about this convection robbing this systems full potential. What happens if it doesn't show up tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Lock it in. Luckily I'm generally up around 4am. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, kingbaus said: I keep on hearing about this convection robbing this systems full potential. What happens if it doesn't show up tonight. Then the coastal low would have more energy and moisture to itself and it would be a better outcome for us. But it's really nowcast time to see how that convection blows up and how it affects our storm. The upper air setup would really favor a nice compact low just offshore so we have that going for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, kingbaus said: I keep on hearing about this convection robbing this systems full potential. What happens if it doesn't show up tonight. If the models start showing 1 low then the amounts will go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 18 minutes ago, mob1 said: I hope the clouds don't roll in till another few hours so we can radiate a bit with the low dew points we have. Not that temperatures are a concern, but the colder the better. Temps aren't going to be a problem. Maybe it starts out at 33 briefly but the snow looks to come in like a wall and we drop below freezing quickly. Dewpoints are also in the teens which helps out with cooling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 18Z RGEM looking better than 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Byrdhousebv Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Mount Holly put up Winter Storm Warning for Monmouth and Ocean Counties. Let's do this!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Eastern long island now in a winter storm warning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: If the models start showing 1 low then the amounts will go up. There's very little point in looking at anything other than very short term stuff right now in the model space. Looking for frontogenic forcing. I bumped up an inch to 3-6 today and flagged higher east end and eastern CT. 2-5" west of 287 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2-3” is my call up here in and around I-84. Anything more is a bonus 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, Nibor said: UGH I posted but did not realize im looking at Temps and Winds,,,,,my bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Upton hourly grids showing 6.1" here in NW Suffolk. We take! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 So what is it gonna take for --> this to shift ever so slightly a wee bit west to get us peeps in the lower Hudson valley more involved ? 25 mile shift maybe 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Yeah, if I can pull 6" out of this, I'll be a very happy camper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Models are starting to bring the low closer to the coast and focusing on that low Gfs just came west 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Models are starting to bring the low closer to the coast and focusing on that low Gfs just came west that is what I am talking about 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 GFS looked good. Has plenty of precip well inland too. 0.5" liquid makes it to Newburgh. LI gets a good 6". With decent ratios, the whole Upton area probably gets warning/borderline amounts on that run. This would suggest 2"/hr snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Upton might have to issue more warnings This will be higher than 10:1 ratios 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I’m already working some overnight OT, bring it. I might get 4 straight shifts between tonight and tomorrow if this plays out right. I’m working in Long Beach now so if we can get like 5-6” min, jackpot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Banding showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Upton might have to issue more warnings This will be higher than 10:1 ratios Yeah, wouldn't be surprised if its 12-13:1 even at the coast...the 850-700 temps sure support that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I'm assuming the convection offshore might be coming less of a issue leading to higher snowfall amounts the past few hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 41 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, if I can pull 6" out of this, I'll be a very happy camper. 14 minutes ago, 72bundy said: That's what she said. Good eveningELI, 72b. Only because the cm metric measurement equivalent was mistaken for inches. As always … 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Crush job @forkyfork 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 35 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Upton might have to issue more warnings This will be higher than 10:1 ratios They don't have to. They're just going to be really sorry if they don't issue them for I95 and the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 kudos to forky when everyone was standing on the ledge! should be a nice 3-6” for most of us. maybe lollis to 8” far eastern areas. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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