bluewave Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Spots that get into the banding will have the best shot at reaching 6”. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: eww There is some nice banding in Central NJ through eastern parts of NYC and Central LI We have to watch out for that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Whatever falls, it’ll be nice to wake up to in the morning. I’m thinking some people can make it to 6” depending on where the banding happens but generally it’s 4-6” from the city on east and 2-4” north and west. There is a good signal IMO for a fronto band developing and setting up somewhere for a couple hours. Most favored location for that may be central LI and CT. Some have mentioned the Super Bowl day storm last year and that might not be a bad analog. It was favored for city on east locations, was a fast mover and a few places ended up with 8-9”. Maybe there could be similar surprises. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Whatever falls, it’ll be nice to wake up to in the morning. I’m thinking some people can make it to 6” depending on where the banding happens but generally it’s 4-6” from the city on east and 2-4” north and west. There is a good signal IMO for a fronto band developing and setting up somewhere for a couple hours. Most favored location for that may be central LI and CT. Some have mentioned the Super Bowl day storm last year and that might not be a bad analog. It was favored for city on east locations, was a fast mover and a few places ended up with 8-9”. Maybe there could be similar surprises. That’s generally the case in these types of setups. A couple hours of 1-2”/hr rates adds up fast. We have been so spoiled the last two decades with blockbusters that we forget this is a bread and butter event for our area, ask the 80s. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That’s generally the case in these types of setups. A couple hours of 1-2”/hr rates adds up fast. We have been so spoiled the last two decades with blockbusters that we forget this is a bread and butter event for our area, ask the 80s. Hopefully this one is a little colder than Super Bowl last year and it’s overnight so there’s no issue with the snow sticking. I remember in Long Beach for that one the beginning was rain and we wasted a good amount on non accumulating snow. Up where I am now it was considerably better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 42 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro That’s a very reasonable expectation for snowfall totals 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Hopefully this one is a little colder than Super Bowl last year and it’s overnight so there’s no issue with the snow sticking. I remember in Long Beach for that one the beginning was rain and we wasted a good amount on non accumulating snow. Up where I am now it was considerably better. I was just thinking that (MMU scored well on there) or the December 5, 2002 event. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 22 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: 3-6 for LI not taking into account the banding that may take place ? That does take it into account Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 GFS still has that fronto band signature, looks maybe a hair west of last night's run. If anywhere that's where you'd see 6"+. This run looks like it's over the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 41 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: 3-6 for LI not taking into account the banding that may take place ? Indications from the shorter term models show that the best chance for banding to set up would be from central/southern NJ across LI and on into CT and eastern NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Almost all banding sets up further west than modeled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 9 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Indications from the shorter term models show that the best chance for banding to set up would be from central/southern NJ across LI and on into CT and eastern NE. ..usually you won't know till its happening..hoping to get under one!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Northof78 said: Almost all banding sets up further west than modeled Other than NEMO, JUNO…Miller Bs can be tricky if you are west of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Doorman said: Last two runs of the Euro at 0z and 6z look like this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Hopefully we escape the transition screw zone...usually it sets up more in W NJ/ E PA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Looks like my area will be splitting the up-rights, but move that band 40 miles west and I’m in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Most of SE New England is now under a Winter Storm Warning. Starting to think we may get screwed with this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Nam is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 If the focal point is the western low then we're all getting 4-6"+ amounts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, Rjay said: Nice, it seems that is make or break with the coastal low for most of N/C NJ, NYC, and LI, western low will be basically gone by the time it gets here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 What's the thinking on precip start time in NW NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 11 minutes ago, Rjay said: Nice banding signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I'll take this sounding anytime. Would rip pretty good over here for a little bit. Let's see what happens the rest of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 24 minutes ago, Northof78 said: Hopefully we escape the transition screw zone...usually it sets up more in W NJ/ E PA That dual max with shaft zone will likely happen somewhere. Usually does with these energy transfer situations. The 12z HRRR was pretty nasty with that over NJ and E PA. Glad the Nam finally woke up. 4-6” looks good for LI (locally 7-8” if the banding works out) and maybe NYC, 2-4” west of the city. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 17 minutes ago, Rjay said: That would be some band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 8 minutes ago, USCG RS said: That would be some band Our snow mostly comes in 3-5 hours, looks like it’ll be 1-maybe 2” an hour in that time. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 RGEM improved 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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