NEG NAO Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 41 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i'm thinking 4-8 you are expecting very high ratio's ?- still expecting any sleet ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 43 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i'm thinking 4-8 42 minutes ago, forkyfork said: we're in a great spot with regard to the fgen circulation and the dendritic growth zone. i don't care about qpf output <3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 26 minutes ago, eduggs said: Max reflectivity of hi-res max ensemble only 37ish? Meh Those max bands could still dump .75 to 1 inch per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 50 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Help me learn… Why are you holding the GFS is such regard after the last two storms? It seems that it has been quite bad this season Model Output Statistics (MOS), were a strong resource for forecasting surface weather parameters temperature, dew point, winds, precipitation, etc. I understand the National Weather Service looks to phase some MOS out in the future. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 12 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Those max bands could still dump .75 to 1 inch per hour. Definitely. Intensities could even be briefly heavier. But we're in the good stuff relatively briefly. And there's a chance our area ends up partly in-between the best banding. Someone in our region should hit 4" - heck maybe even 6" out on LI. But the rapid deepening of the SLP does not favor our area, so we're probably looking at accumulations < 4". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 One good thing with this event is it should be at or below freezing most places during the precipitation. Coastal and urban areas, esp LI might be a little above, but will likely cool in steadier snow. With these temperatures, even a few inches of snow will feel very wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, eduggs said: One good thing with this event is it should be at or below freezing most places during the precipitation. Coastal and urban areas, esp LI might be a little above, but will likely cool in steadier snow. With these temperatures, even a few inches of snow will feel very wintry. If it completely covers up the grass I’ll be happy. Time for it to finally happen this winter. Maybe my area will be one of the lucky ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobjohnsonforthehall Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 That weak low down near the Bahamas will have some effect on our Thursday/Friday AM system, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, bobjohnsonforthehall said: That weak low down near the Bahamas will have some effect on our Thursday/Friday AM system, no? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 NAM still struggling with this storm, lot of run to run variation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: NAM still struggling with this storm, lot of run to run variation. Looks similar to 12z, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Problem is that the transfer skips the metro area. So we are left with decaying snow to the west and redeveloping low too far east. Doughnut hole. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Hi res Nam is nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 24 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: NAM still struggling with this storm, lot of run to run variation. Struggling big time with LP placement....It really in the delmarva area not all the way down where it shows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 35 minutes ago, bobjohnsonforthehall said: That weak low down near the Bahamas will have some effect on our Thursday/Friday AM system, no? Little if any imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Looks like Upton is going with the Euro/EPS for their snowfall forecast. This just got issued: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 WWA up for most of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Latest OKX AFD: SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The 12Z NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are all in good agreement with the track and timing of low pres tracking se of the benchmark Thu ngt into Fri. This would produce a 1-3 inch snowfall west and 2-4 inches east. The fcst follows this thinking. The overall model trend has been east with the sys, so it would not be surprising to see a further ewd trend in future model runs. Any trend w would produce more snow. Because of the trend, and current snow totals blw advy criteria in many places, will not issue an advy with this fcst. The snowfall potential will continue to be highlighted in the hwo and idss briefing products. Most of the snow will occur late Thu ngt into Fri mrng, which will impact the mrng commute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Latest Mt Holly suggests that Forky may be in the right direction on this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 59 minutes ago, weathermedic said: WWA up for most of NJ. Mount Holly going with a 2 to 4 forecast. Looks reasonable. Snow ratios being a little better than 10:1 helps, so I might lean more towards the 4 than the 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Have they nailed down a start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Gefs shifted west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I expect this will come back to the bench mark. Nothing wrong with a 3-6/4-8 storm. Especially when we got nothing so far 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I expect this will come back to the bench mark. Nothing wrong with a 3-6/4-8 storm. Especially when we got nothing so far . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 28 minutes ago, matt8204 said: Have they nailed down a start time? SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ***Quick hitting system to bring snow Thursday night into early Friday*** The main story for this part of the forecast will be coastal storm system forecast to bring snow overnight Thursday night into early Friday. There are still some differences in the forecast models with the NAM being a weaker, farther south/east outlier while the GFS continues to be a bit fast. Leaned towards a blend weighted heavier towards the 12z GEM Reg / 12z HRRR/ 6z NAM. These models are a bit stronger with the low and farther N/W compared to other guidance that`s trended a bit farther south/east over the past day or two. However given the set up of a fairly robust upper level wave and the history of these types of systems tend to favor this slightly stronger solution. Bottom line, we have become confident enough in a fairly widespread 2-4+ inches of snowfall accumulation to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for most zones, excluding the coastal strip south of Monmouth Co, NJ and the southern Poconos where confidence and amounts are a bit lower. Also, sleet and even some rain could mix in near the coast. In terms of the details, deepening low pressure moves northeast off the Virginia / NC coast Thursday night in response to a strong upper level wave moving eastward from the Great Lakes region. Snow overspreads the region west to east late Thursday evening into the overnight (mostly after 10 PM) with the heaviest precip likely falling in the 1am - 7am period. While our official snowfall forecasts remain capped to the 2 to 4 inch range for much of the CWA, there are a couple important things to note: 1) This will be a fast moving system with snow falling over just several hours that will unfortunately coincide with the Friday AM commute. 2) We still think there is the potential for an embedded heavier band of snow with totals in the 4-6+ inch range. Uncertainty still on exactly where this would occur but somewhere near or just south of the I-95 corridor appears most heavily favored. For this reason, this could still be an impactful event despite the current snowfall forecast not being that high. This will be monitored closely and if confidence for this increases, Winter Storm Warnings will be considered. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Here the latest NWS briefing on the snow potential for late Thursday night into the Friday morning commute. #nycwx #njwx #ctwx #liwx #nywx On Tweeter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 41 minutes ago, Doorman said: SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ***Quick hitting system to bring snow Thursday night into early Friday*** The main story for this part of the forecast will be coastal storm system forecast to bring snow overnight Thursday night into early Friday. There are still some differences in the forecast models with the NAM being a weaker, farther south/east outlier while the GFS continues to be a bit fast. Leaned towards a blend weighted heavier towards the 12z GEM Reg / 12z HRRR/ 6z NAM. These models are a bit stronger with the low and farther N/W compared to other guidance that`s trended a bit farther south/east over the past day or two. However given the set up of a fairly robust upper level wave and the history of these types of systems tend to favor this slightly stronger solution. Bottom line, we have become confident enough in a fairly widespread 2-4+ inches of snowfall accumulation to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for most zones, excluding the coastal strip south of Monmouth Co, NJ and the southern Poconos where confidence and amounts are a bit lower. Also, sleet and even some rain could mix in near the coast. In terms of the details, deepening low pressure moves northeast off the Virginia / NC coast Thursday night in response to a strong upper level wave moving eastward from the Great Lakes region. Snow overspreads the region west to east late Thursday evening into the overnight (mostly after 10 PM) with the heaviest precip likely falling in the 1am - 7am period. While our official snowfall forecasts remain capped to the 2 to 4 inch range for much of the CWA, there are a couple important things to note: 1) This will be a fast moving system with snow falling over just several hours that will unfortunately coincide with the Friday AM commute. 2) We still think there is the potential for an embedded heavier band of snow with totals in the 4-6+ inch range. Uncertainty still on exactly where this would occur but somewhere near or just south of the I-95 corridor appears most heavily favored. For this reason, this could still be an impactful event despite the current snowfall forecast not being that high. This will be monitored closely and if confidence for this increases, Winter Storm Warnings will be considered. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off My. Holly pretty bullish..KFOK with no advisory yet for long island.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 5 hours ago, forkyfork said: we're in a great spot with regard to the fgen circulation and the dendritic growth zone. i don't care about qpf output <3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 21z RAP is a weenie run for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Definitely should be some good snow bands somewhere PHL to New Haven in that 10pm to 5am timeframe. Who will wake up to a surprise? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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