Rmine1 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Eh. Guess my post was deleted. Anyway, Forky looking correct as usual when he posts positively I think it works both ways with FF. Didn’t get sucked into the last event, and many know how that ended. When he’s onboard or not, I’m listening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Nick Gregory going with 3-5 for NYC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 RGEM looked about the same to me at 0z as last run. General 2-4" type event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 The big trend since 12z is to hook the coastal SLP up a little closer to the Cape. That really favors SNE and EMA in particular. We may get a few hours of moderate to heavy snow, but there's also the threat of a relative minimum through out area that has shown up on a few runs. The 18z EC was a little light with QPF outside of LI for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 18 minutes ago, jm1220 said: RGEM looked about the same to me at 0z as last run. General 2-4" type event. Thats what I'm still leaning towards but banding could easily give some spots 6-7" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 LOL. Reggie went way east compared to 18z but actually looked better as well. It chased the energy into the atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Gfs way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 GFS is widespread 4-6". And cold for the coast too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: So NOW it’s party time? Maybe forky is right This will come even more west 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I wonder if the models will lose that low east of the main low near the coast. This has a chance to shift even further west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Yeah we'll take that GFS run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Gefs is also west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 If this pans out it's a really great week for DC through Delaware to SNJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Meso models and the GFS seem to like a good fronto band from about where I am to the ORH area through CT. We'll see how that pans out. Ratios may be over 10-1 in that due to the strong lift within that band. This might not be done ticking west and stronger. The trough looked a good bit more impressive tonight with a sharp more consolidated S/W, so NW areas might also be in for more. It's still also acting a little funky with convection offshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 This is nice. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 We have to keep a sharp eye on maps tomorrow. If by chance the low develops faster a little further south and still tracks up the coast it could increase amounts dramatically and we'd be talking 6-10". WSW criteria. I do not think that's going to happen but it's not out of the question. Tonight has been definitely a trend towards more robust a storm. WX/PT 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Winter Weather Advisory for NYC 3-5 Inches 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 meh here we go again 6z nam east of 0z 6z reggie further east than earlier(it was way east already) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Gfs is a tick west from 0z As you can see here , there are 3 lows on this map. The snow amounts will go up if we can get the low circled in black to be the main low. To me , the models are still having a tough time figuring out which is the dominant low. Happy tracking today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is a tick west from 0z As you can see here , there are 3 lows on this map. The snow amounts will go up if we can get the low circled in black to be the main low. To me , the models are still having a tough time figuring out which is the dominant low. Happy tracking today MJO, How will will know IF that low actually becomes the dominant low , would that come down to nowcasting or is there someway to tell ahead of time if that energy gets transferred ? Is there a way other than Looking at Radar ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: MJO, How will will know IF that low actually becomes the dominant low , would that come down to nowcasting or is there someway to tell ahead of time if that energy gets transferred ? Is there a way other than Looking at Radar ? We have to see where the low transfers to the coast . That will determine the coastal low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 Good Thursday morning everyone, I'll start an OBS-NOWCAST thread at 8PM tonight. In the meantime--it's coming. What do I think from looking at op models and ensembles? 2-4" nw NJ and 3-6" elsewhere with nuances. You all will be on top of model guidance and your own sense of what will happen. I'll get into the banding with the NOWCAST thread this evening and haven't examined that nor snow growth but it seems to me NYC should receive 3". I could be wrong, as usual. The storm continues to be a 5-10 hour event (midnight-Noon) with ending time most of our area 9A-11A, though a few flurries should be scattered about through the afternoon as the sharp cold 500MB trough passes through. Added the NWS 5AM regional snow forecast and the Winter Storm Severity Index. Use the legends. Delays and/or at least some morning activities cancels anticipated in my opinion. Am looking at threads for Sunday the 9th which is trending colder, and the following weekend (15-16) but absolutely nothing from me til Friday or Saturday on those. Am off line til at least 6PM. Have a great day! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Mt. Holly mentioning a narrow band dropping 2"/hr rates somewhere in CNJ/SNJ in an update this morning. Could be fun for a little bit tomorrow. For a narrow section of coast this could be our biggest storm in two years. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 It’s funny AccuWeather has never wavered in their prediction 3 to 6 inches thru all the various models runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 12 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: It’s funny AccuWeather has never wavered in their prediction 3 to 6 inches thru all the various models runs Every squirrel catches a nut eventually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 8 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Every squirrel catches a nut eventually. You gave me a good laugh on the van Wyck… And that’s hard to do touche 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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