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Small or possibly moderate wintry event possible for a portion of the NYC subforum Friday morning-early afternoon 1/7/22


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50 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Help me learn…

Why are you holding the GFS is such regard after the last two storms? It seems that it has been quite bad this season

Model Output Statistics (MOS), were a strong resource for forecasting surface weather parameters temperature, dew point, winds, precipitation, etc. I understand the National Weather Service looks to phase some MOS out in the future.

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12 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Those max bands could still dump .75 to 1 inch per hour. 

Definitely. Intensities could even be briefly heavier. But we're in the good stuff relatively briefly. And there's a chance our area ends up partly in-between the best banding. Someone in our region should hit 4" - heck maybe even 6" out on LI. But the rapid deepening of the SLP does not favor our area, so we're probably looking at accumulations < 4".

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One good thing with this event is it should be at or below freezing most places during the precipitation. Coastal and urban areas, esp LI might be a little above, but will likely cool in steadier snow. With these temperatures, even a few inches of snow will feel very wintry.

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6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

One good thing with this event is it should be at or below freezing most places during the precipitation. Coastal and urban areas, esp LI might be a little above, but will likely cool in steadier snow. With these temperatures, even a few inches of snow will feel very wintry.

If it completely covers up the grass I’ll be happy. Time for it to finally happen this winter. Maybe my area will be one of the lucky ones. 

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Latest OKX AFD:

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The 12Z NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are all in good agreement with the track 
and timing of low pres tracking se of the benchmark Thu ngt into 
Fri. This would produce a 1-3 inch snowfall west and 2-4 inches 
east. The fcst follows this thinking. 

The overall model trend has been east with the sys, so it would not 
be surprising to see a further ewd trend in future model runs. Any 
trend w would produce more snow. Because of the trend, and current 
snow totals blw advy criteria in many places, will not issue an advy 
with this fcst. The snowfall potential will continue to be 
highlighted in the hwo and idss briefing products.

Most of the snow will occur late Thu ngt into Fri mrng, which will 
impact the mrng commute.
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28 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

Have they nailed down a start time?

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

***Quick hitting system to bring snow Thursday night into early
Friday***

The main story for this part of the forecast will be coastal storm
system forecast to bring snow overnight Thursday night into early
Friday. There are still some differences in the forecast models with
the NAM being a weaker, farther south/east outlier while the GFS
continues to be a bit fast. Leaned towards a blend weighted heavier
towards the 12z GEM Reg / 12z HRRR/ 6z NAM. These models are a bit
stronger with the low and farther N/W compared to other guidance
that`s trended a bit farther south/east over the past day or two.
However given the set up of a fairly robust upper level wave and the
history of these types of systems tend to favor this slightly
stronger solution. Bottom line, we have become confident enough in a
fairly widespread 2-4+ inches of snowfall accumulation to issue a
Winter Weather Advisory for most zones, excluding the coastal strip
south of Monmouth Co, NJ and the southern Poconos where
confidence and amounts are a bit lower. Also, sleet and even
some rain could mix in near the coast.

In terms of the details, deepening low pressure moves northeast off
the Virginia / NC coast Thursday night in response to a strong upper
level wave moving eastward from the Great Lakes region. Snow
overspreads the region west to east late Thursday evening into the
overnight (mostly after 10 PM) with the heaviest precip likely
falling in the 1am - 7am period. While our official snowfall
forecasts remain capped to the 2 to 4 inch range for much of the
CWA, there are a couple important things to note: 1) This will be a
fast moving system with snow falling over just several hours that
will unfortunately coincide with the Friday AM commute. 2) We
still think there is the potential for an embedded heavier band
of snow with totals in the 4-6+ inch range. Uncertainty still on
exactly where this would occur but somewhere near or just south
of the I-95 corridor appears most heavily favored. 
For this
reason, this could still be an impactful event despite the
current snowfall forecast not being that high. This will be
monitored closely and if confidence for this increases, Winter
Storm Warnings will be considered.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

5493295b-5e8a-4420-9485-58e6bab23cbe.thumb.gif.60841782a7fab129ada8e5f828e2ccec.gif

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41 minutes ago, Doorman said:
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

***Quick hitting system to bring snow Thursday night into early
Friday***

The main story for this part of the forecast will be coastal storm
system forecast to bring snow overnight Thursday night into early
Friday. There are still some differences in the forecast models with
the NAM being a weaker, farther south/east outlier while the GFS
continues to be a bit fast. Leaned towards a blend weighted heavier
towards the 12z GEM Reg / 12z HRRR/ 6z NAM. These models are a bit
stronger with the low and farther N/W compared to other guidance
that`s trended a bit farther south/east over the past day or two.
However given the set up of a fairly robust upper level wave and the
history of these types of systems tend to favor this slightly
stronger solution. Bottom line, we have become confident enough in a
fairly widespread 2-4+ inches of snowfall accumulation to issue a
Winter Weather Advisory for most zones, excluding the coastal strip
south of Monmouth Co, NJ and the southern Poconos where
confidence and amounts are a bit lower. Also, sleet and even
some rain could mix in near the coast.

In terms of the details, deepening low pressure moves northeast off
the Virginia / NC coast Thursday night in response to a strong upper
level wave moving eastward from the Great Lakes region. Snow
overspreads the region west to east late Thursday evening into the
overnight (mostly after 10 PM) with the heaviest precip likely
falling in the 1am - 7am period. While our official snowfall
forecasts remain capped to the 2 to 4 inch range for much of the
CWA, there are a couple important things to note: 1) This will be a
fast moving system with snow falling over just several hours that
will unfortunately coincide with the Friday AM commute. 2) We
still think there is the potential for an embedded heavier band
of snow with totals in the 4-6+ inch range. Uncertainty still on
exactly where this would occur but somewhere near or just south
of the I-95 corridor appears most heavily favored. 
For this
reason, this could still be an impactful event despite the
current snowfall forecast not being that high. This will be
monitored closely and if confidence for this increases, Winter
Storm Warnings will be considered.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

5493295b-5e8a-4420-9485-58e6bab23cbe.thumb.gif.60841782a7fab129ada8e5f828e2ccec.gif

My. Holly pretty bullish..KFOK with no advisory yet for long island..

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