WeatherFox Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 NWS Eastern Region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 NWS Eastern Region.STOP THE COUNT. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: Ask the people down in VA along the I95 corridor if the fast moving system yesterday limited the effects too much Reminds me of Feb 2013, look what that did to the LIE in Suffolk County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Torch said: So the NWS believes this storm rolls up the coast, even if current guidance doesn’t quite do that? They must of seen something that the models have yet to pick up on. A little strange that they didn’t at least wait till the 0z runs come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 NAM starts the storm quite far south moves it into Georgia and South Carolina. It's still quite early for the NAM which doesn't usually get it right until inside 24 hours, but it appears that the storm has hard time intensifying and turning up the coast. Yet snow is about to move in during the early morning hours Friday. Right now, NAM says no big deal just a little snow. WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 LOL that NAM run is the only model run in history to actually show a shadowing effect to the full extreme as the coastal forms...in reality though it would never ever verify to that extreme level 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 This Weather Prediction Center prog hmm for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, WeatherFox said: This Weather Prediction Center prog hmm for the NYC area. where is the rest ? where does the 2 LP's track ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Rgem is nice 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 26 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Rgem is nice and entering its more accurate range time to start considering most of the mesoscale models except the clowns like the FV3 and SREF......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 19 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: where is the rest ? where does the 2 LP's track ? Out to sea, but my guess at this point is 2-4" for NYC. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Wouldn't trust the RGEM on its own yet. If the Euro keeps coming west then maybe. NAM obviously would be a disaster. I do buy the dual-max idea it has with the initial round of snow well inland, a subsidence zone then the coastal low snow. but to me it's ridiculous how bad it has that. It's just a disjointed mess it seems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Given the latest trends might be looking at more of a 2-4 inch event which is still more snow then we've had since last February. Im disregarding nam and rgem for now on the more extreme ends respectively. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 The RGEM is the best looking of 0z. It looked pretty solid. But at H5 it was actually surprisingly a touch flatter than 18z. I don't completely trust the tucked look with the flatter H5, especially considering the rest of 0z. Regardless, it was a comforting run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Cmc is tucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 0Z GFS - going to have to consider higher than normal ratios with this event IMO That would be pretty solid if it didn't include tomorrow's rain/ice. I'm seeing more like .2 - .3 for early Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc is tucked Looks like a nice 5 hour burst of snow on moderate-heavy snow on the cmc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, eduggs said: That would be pretty solid if it didn't include tomorrow's rain/ice. I'm seeing more like .2 - .3 for early Friday. yup i should have posted 24 hour precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc is tucked I see this as a positive development..........from a good model - hope others agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 6Z nam well West and juiced up. A solid 3 to 6" across the area more to the East. 996MB low off the Jersey coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 I'm a little cautious. Checked some 00z guidance, banding, DGZ... I just wish we had more 850 low development further south. Seems to me like a 5-10 hour event.. Good short wave, but little inflow and certainly no easterly inflow at 850MB, at least not yet. Banding possible could enhance snowfall. Too early for me to be sure where. EPS-GEFS from 12z/4 and 00z/5 were timid. There is time... and NYC-LI you should get your first solid inch. Here's my take for the forum not reviewing 06z 3KNAM Banding. Midnight-Noon Friday: A 5 to 10 hour period of snow occurs from northern VA through Baltimore, PA/NJ/NYC and the I84 corridor to Boston. Amounts should be in the range of 1-5". Uncertain where the heaviest occurs, though tending to favor coastal NJ through NYC and especially CT/MA but this could be wrong. All untreated surfaces will be snow covered and slippery for a few hours near dawn Friday, so prepare for some delays in snowy conditions. Snow ends Baltimore around sunrise, ends NYC/nw NJ/ne PA 9-11A but for Boston it may linger til mid afternoon. Added three graphics generated around 4am today: showing the chance of 1" and 4+" and the Winter Storm Severity Index. We can add the regional snowfall forecast by the NWS when it updates at 530AM. Adjustments in amounts and ultimate heaviest axis will need to be further reviewed-changed. We'll have the SPC HREF at 11AM for a first crack up to 7AM Friday. Added NWS snowfall forecast as collaborated through 5A today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Nws going with 3 inches in NYC. There will also be higher ratios with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 6z GFS still chasing convection off shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: 6z GFS still chasing convection off shore. Yep it looked better until it jumped east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nws going with 3 inches in NYC. There will also be higher ratios with this. It’s a good call after getting burned Monday. 3” is just enough to plow and shovel, especially since it will be accumulating on all surfaces. Often in marginal event’s especially here in the city you may have 6” on the grass but on really an inch or two of slush on the pavement. There is still a decent upside depending on where banding sets up, someone in our area will see 8”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Sweet 6z nam run. Let's see more runs like that today plz. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Sweet 6z nam run. Let's see more runs like that today plz. 6z rgem also Rgem is tucked in because its not going chasing the convection to the east like it did with the last run. 6z vs 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 NWS 5AM deterministic forecast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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