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Small or possibly moderate wintry event possible for a portion of the NYC subforum Friday morning-early afternoon 1/7/22


wdrag
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  On 1/4/2022 at 12:03 AM, SnoSki14 said:

I would put our odds at a 3-6" storm about 50/50 right now

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I would maybe put the odds of a 3-6" storm somewhere in the NE at 50%. But the odds that our region will get that range is probably less. Most snow events don't work out from 4 days out. That doesn't mean it's not a decent snow threat... just that the likelihoods are always low until the short range.

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The NAM has the vortmax further south than 18z at the end of the run and it's sharper. Nice run. That would lead to a snow event for most of the area.

The limiting factors are the quick motion and the relatively undeveloped or late developing mid-levels.  If the trof digs further south and matures sooner, the chances of significant snow increase, along with the possibility of mix, or even rain. Overall I think the guidance right now looks promising for snow on Friday - maybe even plowable.

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  On 1/4/2022 at 3:15 AM, eduggs said:

I would maybe put the odds of a 3-6" storm somewhere in the NE at 50%. But the odds that our region will get that range is probably less. Most snow events don't work out from 4 days out. That doesn't mean it's not a decent snow threat... just that the likelihoods are always low until the short range.

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But Uggs, snow events have to start somewhere :clap:why not 4 days out THIS TIME ? 

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Modeling is tending to try for a neg tilt intensifying nor'easter. Best snowfall north of our area since ensembled 850 LOW is still north of us. Added 00z/4 GEFS spaghetti and NWS ensemble chance of 6". THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE guidance after 12z/Friday.  The idea Is I95 could serve as a mix boundary?  Something wintry is coming, especially interior. 

Screen Shot 2022-01-04 at 5.15.57 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-01-04 at 5.25.09 AM.png

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  On 1/4/2022 at 10:47 AM, MJO812 said:

Rgem shifted west

Forky might be right about dealing with sleet. 

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_78.png

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It’s a vigorous S/W and sharpening trough so it definitely could keep going west and end up more of an inland event. If the 850 low goes north of you which WDrag mentioned, that’s almost never good for big snow amounts in your area and indicates there’ll be a good deal of mixing. 

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  On 1/4/2022 at 12:04 PM, jm1220 said:

It’s a vigorous S/W and sharpening trough so it definitely could keep going west and end up more of an inland event. If the 850 low goes north of you which WDrag mentioned, that’s almost never good for big snow amounts in your area and indicates there’ll be a good deal of mixing. 

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We should have enough cold air to avoid a disaster.

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  On 1/4/2022 at 12:19 PM, PuraVida said:

As I see it, 850 lows for euro and gfs still pass south of Long Island no?

Puts everyone in a good position at this time?

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Haven’t had a chance to look at the mid level lows yet but yes you definitely want the various mid level lows to track south of you. If they track north of you it means mid level warm air will be a problem along with a dry slot. 

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  On 1/4/2022 at 12:21 PM, jm1220 said:

Haven’t had a chance to look at the mid level lows yet but yes you definitely want the various mid level lows to track south of you. If they track north of you it means mid level warm air will be a problem along with a dry slot. 

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Thanks!

 

Looks like NAM might be over or north of area, but just needed some confirmation because it seemed like others were concerned that mid levels were already forecast to be too north.

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  On 1/4/2022 at 12:23 PM, PuraVida said:

Thanks!

 

Looks like NAM might be over or north of area, but just needed some confirmation because it seemed like others were concerned that mid levels were already forecast to be too north.

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NAM might be over amped, it usually has one or two crazy runs, but today and tonight will be interesting to see if it keeps coming west in general. Obviously a track over LI won’t be good for anyone east of NYC. 

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Something like the 6z GFS would be ideal for most of our area. Something to keep in mind too is that this is something of a late bloomer, so the mid level lows are taking shape as it goes by. The storm will likely be worse QPF-wise anyway over SNE. But it'll still be a decent to good event for whoever can stay all snow. 

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