MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 On 1/4/2022 at 2:56 AM, WestBabylonWeather said: do we party yet or no Expand Not yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 On 1/4/2022 at 12:03 AM, SnoSki14 said: I would put our odds at a 3-6" storm about 50/50 right now Expand I would maybe put the odds of a 3-6" storm somewhere in the NE at 50%. But the odds that our region will get that range is probably less. Most snow events don't work out from 4 days out. That doesn't mean it's not a decent snow threat... just that the likelihoods are always low until the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 This looks like a decent enough setup and odds are better that the trough can amp better than this last one just did, but given how chaotic things are this winter in the fast pattern we have, it's almost impossible to get excited about a potential over 72hrs out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 we're more likely to get sleet than a whiff se imo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 The NAM has the vortmax further south than 18z at the end of the run and it's sharper. Nice run. That would lead to a snow event for most of the area. The limiting factors are the quick motion and the relatively undeveloped or late developing mid-levels. If the trof digs further south and matures sooner, the chances of significant snow increase, along with the possibility of mix, or even rain. Overall I think the guidance right now looks promising for snow on Friday - maybe even plowable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Gfs folded 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Yea the GFS coming around to the Euro. Makes it much more interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 On 1/4/2022 at 3:15 AM, eduggs said: I would maybe put the odds of a 3-6" storm somewhere in the NE at 50%. But the odds that our region will get that range is probably less. Most snow events don't work out from 4 days out. That doesn't mean it's not a decent snow threat... just that the likelihoods are always low until the short range. Expand But Uggs, snow events have to start somewhere why not 4 days out THIS TIME ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Hi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 On 1/4/2022 at 4:24 AM, MJO812 said: Hi Expand Bing Bong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Canadian 0Z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Rgem shifted west Forky might be right about dealing with sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 On 1/4/2022 at 10:47 AM, MJO812 said: Rgem shifted west Forky might be right about dealing with sleet. Expand He’s right. I’ve felt all along this event was going to possibly end up as an inland runner for a few reasons 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 Modeling is tending to try for a neg tilt intensifying nor'easter. Best snowfall north of our area since ensembled 850 LOW is still north of us. Added 00z/4 GEFS spaghetti and NWS ensemble chance of 6". THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE guidance after 12z/Friday. The idea Is I95 could serve as a mix boundary? Something wintry is coming, especially interior. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 On 1/4/2022 at 11:07 AM, snowman19 said: He’s right. I’ve felt all along this event was going to possibly end up as an inland runner for a few reasons Expand Quite possible Here are the gefs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 On 1/4/2022 at 11:14 AM, MJO812 said: Quite possible Here are the gefs Expand Either way we're going to get some snow out of it. A lot better than what happened yesterday, right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 On 1/4/2022 at 11:15 AM, LibertyBell said: Either way we're going to get some snow out of it. A lot better than what happened yesterday, right? . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 On 1/4/2022 at 11:25 AM, SnoSki14 said: No you didn't. You said it was gonna whiff or at the very least gave mixed signals. Expand This is true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I think we have a greater than 50% at a moderate system (3-6"). The fast flow will counteract the negative tilt preventing a wound up hugger. Actually think parts of SNE are more likely to mix as storm really blows up and tucks in after it passes our region. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 On 1/4/2022 at 10:47 AM, MJO812 said: Rgem shifted west Forky might be right about dealing with sleet. Expand It’s a vigorous S/W and sharpening trough so it definitely could keep going west and end up more of an inland event. If the 850 low goes north of you which WDrag mentioned, that’s almost never good for big snow amounts in your area and indicates there’ll be a good deal of mixing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Yes, need to monitor the mid levels closely for this. That's where the answers will always be. Always. 850 is important but 700 is as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 On 1/4/2022 at 12:04 PM, jm1220 said: It’s a vigorous S/W and sharpening trough so it definitely could keep going west and end up more of an inland event. If the 850 low goes north of you which WDrag mentioned, that’s almost never good for big snow amounts in your area and indicates there’ll be a good deal of mixing. Expand We should have enough cold air to avoid a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Euro is west at 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuraVida Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 As I see it, 850 lows for euro and gfs still pass south of Long Island no? Puts everyone in a good position at this time? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 On 1/4/2022 at 12:19 PM, PuraVida said: As I see it, 850 lows for euro and gfs still pass south of Long Island no? Puts everyone in a good position at this time? Expand Haven’t had a chance to look at the mid level lows yet but yes you definitely want the various mid level lows to track south of you. If they track north of you it means mid level warm air will be a problem along with a dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuraVida Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 On 1/4/2022 at 12:21 PM, jm1220 said: Haven’t had a chance to look at the mid level lows yet but yes you definitely want the various mid level lows to track south of you. If they track north of you it means mid level warm air will be a problem along with a dry slot. Expand Thanks! Looks like NAM might be over or north of area, but just needed some confirmation because it seemed like others were concerned that mid levels were already forecast to be too north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Here's 850 on the 6z euro 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 On 1/4/2022 at 12:23 PM, PuraVida said: Thanks! Looks like NAM might be over or north of area, but just needed some confirmation because it seemed like others were concerned that mid levels were already forecast to be too north. Expand NAM might be over amped, it usually has one or two crazy runs, but today and tonight will be interesting to see if it keeps coming west in general. Obviously a track over LI won’t be good for anyone east of NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Something like the 6z GFS would be ideal for most of our area. Something to keep in mind too is that this is something of a late bloomer, so the mid level lows are taking shape as it goes by. The storm will likely be worse QPF-wise anyway over SNE. But it'll still be a decent to good event for whoever can stay all snow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Upton’s current call map from overnight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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