wdrag Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Cyclic modeling of the EC/GGEM and ensemble portion of the GFS since this weekend has been developing a fast moving late developing coastal low, resulting in a period of precipitation occurring mainly between midnight and 6PM Friday. Tracking and therefore precipitation type are uncertain but recent ensembles were offering at least 2" of snow to portions of our area, the EPS furthest west and the GEFS/GEPS a bit further east. The GFS op model has been generally offshore. If the low develops further north or further east, very little snow will occur here. Right now 850MB Low development looks too far north for a moderate event but probably worthy of monitoring and trying to figure it out. Based on the model performance for the 1/3/21 grazer snow, we may not know much til we see the NAM consistently give us 1/4" qpf in frozen form with more than 2" of event Total Positive Snow Depth as shown on the Tropical Tidbits web site. 12z/3 500MB ensemble plots below serve as a baseline to witness future modeling departures, GEFS top and EPS next. IF this approaching short wave ends up weaker or further north, it will be difficult to receive meaningful snow here. At 321PM added the 16z/3 WPC D4-5 probs of 1/4" frozen W.E. (lower 2 graphics) which bridges Friday morning 12z/7. The darker green is greater than 30% chance. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Here are the 12z GEFS and EPS mean plus members locations for the time period. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 The Euro shows a low in Mississippi moving off Delaware and pretty strong, the GFS not on board, shows a weak low that develops way offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, lee59 said: The Euro shows a low in Mississippi moving off Delaware and pretty strong, the GFS not on board, shows a weak low that develops way offshore. Gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 West lean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: so the euro gives us a shot of a major winter storm where the GFS does not. that right? Yes Gefs is nice 4 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Not great wave spacing on the 18z GFS. The best baroclinicity is offshore. That's not a great look. But the trof axis is nice as things stand, so it wouldn't take much of a sharpening of the trof to kickstart a more tucked surface system. Inter-model ensembles are still supportive of something. Unfortunately everyone is eager for a slam dunk biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, eduggs said: Not great wave spacing on the 18z GFS. The best baroclinicity is offshore. That's not a great look. But the trof axis is nice as things stand, so it wouldn't take much of a sharpening of the trof to kickstart a more tucked surface system. Inter-model ensembles are still supportive of something. Unfortunately everyone is eager for a slam dunk biggie. Just give me a 3-6 system and call it a day. Too much to ask? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, eduggs said: Not great wave spacing on the 18z GFS. The best baroclinicity is offshore. That's not a great look. But the trof axis is nice as things stand, so it wouldn't take much of a sharpening of the trof to kickstart a more tucked surface system. Inter-model ensembles are still supportive of something. Unfortunately everyone is eager for a slam dunk biggie. I would put our odds at a 3-6" storm about 50/50 right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 The symbol of winter 2022 in westcheter continues…:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 18z Euro 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 18z Euro That'll work 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 51 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: The symbol of winter 2022 in westcheter continues…:) Same here hundreds of miles to your Northwest! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just wondering how the euro could look like THAT 3.5 days before the possible event and this forum can be so dead? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Just wondering how the euro could look like THAT 3.5 days before the possible event and this forum can be so dead? That’s why 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: That’s why 3.5 days is nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: That’s why Nah, I've been scanning weather forums for decades. This is odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, Jt17 said: Nah, I've been scanning weather forums for decades. This is odd. I think tomorrow it would get more busy if it stays the course 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: Nah, I've been scanning weather forums for decades. This is odd. No model consensus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 16 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Just wondering how the euro could look like THAT 3.5 days before the possible event and this forum can be so dead? Could be here today and gone tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 No model consensus and lots of possibilities that this could be less because of the track and stage of development. It's out there... we know it is of interest but when you see the NOHRSC snowfall analysis on the OBS page, you can feel the disappointment. Might happen again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Nah, I've been scanning weather forums for decades. This is odd. I think it’s just exhaustion from COVID, missing out on today’s snow, and getting back into normal work/school/family life on the first day after a long break.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 24 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Nah, I've been scanning weather forums for decades. This is odd. I think the reason is that all of the models including the ECMWF have been shaky this season. 5 or 6 years ago, even 3 years ago with the Euro maps we see today there's be far more excitement because the European seemed to be verifying a little better. Also, we're still not in an ideal pattern for east coast storms, the kind that dump all along I-95 and coastal areas. We'll see if we're able to change the tide this Thursday-Friday. WX/PT 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 13 minutes ago, North and West said: I think it’s just exhaustion from COVID, missing out on today’s snow, and getting back into normal work/school/family life on the first day after a long break. . I think this has a lot to do with it. Nothing is really going right at the moment…including the winter weather many of us look forward to. This holiday season is like a Mets playoff run… 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 21 minutes ago, qg_omega said: This whiffs, trend is clear for those who are paying attention Noted 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Jt17 said: Just wondering how the euro could look like THAT 3.5 days before the possible event and this forum can be so dead? We want to see the whites of its dendrites before we strip down. Figure tomorrows 0z runs and people will start to get the vibe going. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Nam is coming in more amped so far 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Nam went towards the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam is coming in more amped so far Much better than previous run. RGEM next. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam went towards the euro Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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