BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 Grand rapids Snow Blowing Snow Freezing Fog and Breezy 24°F -4°C Humidity 88% Wind Speed SW 22 G 30 mph Barometer 29.52 in (1000.5 mb) Dewpoint 21°F (-6°C) Visibility 0.50 mi Wind Chill 9°F (-13°C) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Grand rapids Snow Blowing Snow Freezing Fog and Breezy 24°F -4°C Humidity 88% Wind Speed SW 22 G 30 mph Barometer 29.52 in (1000.5 mb) Dewpoint 21°F (-6°C) Visibility 0.50 mi Wind Chill 9°F (-13°C) What are you thinking for timing on band tonight? General idea I am seeing doesn't really get the main band cranking until much closer to day break tomorrow? 3pm-5pm initial front and squall rolls through 9pm-12am secondary front and another squall broken lake plume settle in 2am-4am initial lake plume develops on WSW flow over central Erie and then slides north into or just south of the metro by 6am. 6am-6pm band will do it's magic somewhere in north / central Erie county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: While I NEVER feel comfortable about LES, seeing all 6 models pretty much lockstep right now does make me a bit more optimistic. And looking at the snowfall forecast map from the NWS the biggest difference is the stripes of snow north of Buffalo have widened by a few miles. The 8-12” now solidly gets near the 990 and the 4-8 gets all the way to Tonawanda by the 290. This is different from yesterday when those areas were more in the 2-4 category, and the 8-12” area was a cutoff right near my location. This will probably weenie-doom the storm for the northern half of the metro, but model consistency and upstream radar have me cautiously optimistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Channel 4 newest model run brings the bullseye even further south. Gonna be a true nowcasting event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 15 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Channel 4 newest model run brings the bullseye even further south. Gonna be a true nowcasting event. Mike Is on an island by himself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I'm betting on a dual band setup that converges right over me in S Clarence 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 for shyts and giggles... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 41 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: What are you thinking for timing on band tonight? General idea I am seeing doesn't really get the main band cranking until much closer to day break tomorrow? 3pm-5pm initial front and squall rolls through 9pm-12am secondary front and another squall broken lake plume settle in 2am-4am initial lake plume develops on WSW flow over central Erie and then slides north into or just south of the metro by 6am. 6am-6pm band will do it's magic somewhere in north / central Erie county. I was thinking sooner. Should be a good band going by late tonight. The front is almost at Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: for shyts and giggles... Great map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 Here is this model, not sure what it is, Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Here is this model, not sure what it is, Canadian? Yeah it's the high Rez Canadian run at 2.5k.. The HRDPS not yet being equipped with its own data assimilation system, so its quality depends largely on the RDPS, which provides initial and boundary conditions, and on the global data assimilation system acting upstream. So if the forecast of the RDPS is questionable over the region of interest, it is likely that the higher resolution forecast will magnify the problems of the regional forecast. However, initial cloud and surface data are now provided by a coupled HRDPS-Caldas (Canadian Land Data Assimilation System) cycle, improving clouds, precipitation and surface fields. For forecast lead times of more than 24 hours the use of the regional or global forecasts might be required. https://weather.gc.ca/grib/grib2_HRDPS_HR_e.html 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 I might be ready to go a little more bullish based on whats happening over Michigan. Our band will be 2-3 times stronger than theirs will be. Heavy Snow Blowing Snow Freezing Fog and Breezy 22°F Humidity 92% Wind Speed SW 23 G 32 mph Barometer 29.52 in (1000.8 mb) Dewpoint 20°F (-7°C) Visibility 0.25 mi Wind Chill 6°F (-14°C) 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Feeling really optimistic after looking at Michigan, we will have a stronger band then they do and thats 1"+ per hour already. Ah, my old stomping grounds. I sure do miss the beautiful West Michigan lakeshore. They do fantastic when a low ushers in cold air on a SW wind. That's the glorious lake enhancement off of the wide part of Lake Michigan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I’m really hoping for you guys. Nothing synoptic anytime soon so I’ll have to get a contact buzz of your fake snow. Good luck everyone. You are all overdue. Please, please, keep us updated. We want pics and ground reports. Someone gets 18”. I think it’s really gonna crank. Buf is gonna is gonna be like a kid at Christmas (even more so than usual). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 Forecast for airport Tonight Snow showers likely before 10pm, then snow after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 9pm. Low around 24. Breezy, with a southwest wind 22 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Southwest wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow, mainly before 4am, then a chance of snow showers after 4am. Low around 20. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Mike Is on an island by himself Not for the first time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Forecast for airport Tonight Snow showers likely before 10pm, then snow after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 9pm. Low around 24. Breezy, with a southwest wind 22 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Southwest wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow, mainly before 4am, then a chance of snow showers after 4am. Low around 20. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible So 10-20” range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 7-16” for Williamsville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Ah, my old stomping grounds. I sure do miss the beautiful West Michigan lakeshore. They do fantastic when a low ushers in cold air on a SW wind. That's the glorious lake enhancement off of the wide part of Lake Michigan. My ex grew up on White Lake. Those West Michigan lake storms with the multiple band setups hit frequently all the way into late March. Not as intense as the single band storms we get, but they share the wealth a lot more there, and the pack can really add up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: 7-16” for Williamsville 9-17” at my house but I’m not sure I buy it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Forecast for airport Tonight Snow showers likely before 10pm, then snow after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 9pm. Low around 24. Breezy, with a southwest wind 22 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Southwest wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow, mainly before 4am, then a chance of snow showers after 4am. Low around 20. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible but... where did my thundersnow go? Looks like they removed "thunder also possible" from all zones now? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, WNash said: My ex grew up on White Lake. Those West Michigan lake storms with the multiple band setups hit frequently all the way into late March. Not as intense as the single band storms we get, but they share the wealth a lot more there, and the pack can really add up. Nice! Yeah, I lived for 9 years in the Norton Shores/Spring Lake areas, on the other side of Muskegon from White Lake. I am indeed used to more weaker "spread the wealth" lake effect events as opposed to the single bands that New York's belts seem to get. Hopefully, this upcoming week is one of those more spread the wealth events around here that can really add up over days. Although West Michigan gets a bit less snow than our belts, the recreational environment is something I dearly miss. Oh, and the much more relaxed pace of life! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 13 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: 9-17” at my house but I’m not sure I buy it. It appears you get more Thursday night. I’m at 3-7 tonight and tomorrow and 1-2 on Thursday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: but... where did my thundersnow go? Looks like they removed "thunder also possible" from all zones now? The only thunder you will hear is when Buffwx starts up his tank to go 'a storm chasin'! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Well I'll take what I get, not that I necessarily agree with it lol It does fit in with CNY climo though, so we'll see.. Tonight A chance of rain and snow showers before 7pm, then snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. South wind 11 to 18 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Thursday A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 29. Southwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Thursday Night A chance of snow showers before 10pm, then snow likely after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Friday Snow showers likely, mainly before 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 23. Light north wind becoming northwest 8 to 13 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Nice! Yeah, I lived for 9 years in the Norton Shores/Spring Lake areas, on the other side of Muskegon from White Lake. I am indeed used to more weaker "spread the wealth" lake effect events as opposed to the single bands that New York's belts seem to get. Hopefully, this upcoming week is one of those more spread the wealth events around here that can really add up over days. Although West Michigan gets a bit less snow than our belts, the recreational environment is something I dearly miss. Oh, and the much more relaxed pace of life! I know nothing about that area. Can you expand upon these bolded thoughts? Both seem intriguing to me and, well, probably almost everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, winter_rules said: I know nothing about that area. Can expand upon these bolded thoughts? Both seem intriguing to me and, well, probably almost everyone. Sure! The Lake Michigan shoreline has a FANTASTIC state park system, along with community parks (where you can often park for free and then go swimming in the lake.) The natural sand dunes that exist along the shoreline are a sight to see. During the winter, the way the wind blows, the ice structures that form along the lake (different every year) are phenomenal. The communities along the lake also really invest in having celebrations and festivals throughout the year. (See Holland ,Grand Haven, etc...) As far as pace of life....when my wife and I went back to visit this summer, we were reminded of the "Michigan Goodbye." You start saying bye and then an hour later you're still enjoying each other's company. Relationships have more priority than here. New Yorkers, in my opinion, are uptight and prioritize tasks and time over relationships. People here are also stand-offish. Very generous...but have walls up. That's tough for a relational couple like us. It just takes more time...and people here apologize to us ALL the time if they feel like they are "wasting our time" or "sharing too much." We are always saying, "NO. That is what we want. RELAX." If we hadn't moved here to be closer to family, we would move back to West Michigan in a heartbeat. P.S. I love this subforum and the New Yorkers on here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Channel 4 newest model run brings the bullseye even further south. Gonna be a true nowcasting event. The new girl fixed it lol… thank god. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 It's always good to look upstream to see what will be our weather 6-8 hours later. Just ripping in Grand Rapids with heavy snow for several hours. I think Buf NWS is wrong that our max hourly rate is 1" per. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 think we’d all be happy with this. Spreads the wealth over most of Erie Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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