Thinksnow18 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: HRRR with a big paint brush tip this morning. My guess is that’s the model Mike is using. That’s an almost carbon copy if his map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Wow, it's like he knows where all the weenies from Americanwx live.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Almost forgot the RGEM at 6! Looks so much better! Knew something was off with yesterday’s run. This gives a huge confidence boost to the NWS forecast with a park job right over the metro! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Almost forgot the RGEM at 6! Looks so much better! Knew something was off with yesterday’s run. This gives a huge confidence boost to the NWS forecast with a park job right over the metro! That map makes perfect sense of a 240-250 flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Wow, it's like he knows where all the weenies from Americanwx live.... 1 weenie, 2 weenie, 3 weenie, 4, 5 weenie, 6 weenie, 7 weenie or? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: 1 weenie, 2 weenie, 3 weenie, 4, 5 weenie, 6 weenie, 7 weenie or? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: That was a classic show. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Expecting between 6-10” is my guess as I’m probably just a mile or two north of the heaviest snows for this one. West Seneca, Cheektowaga, Lancaster, South Buffalo and Depew Jackpot this one IMO. This doesn’t surprise me, though I am disappointed. A heavy band with a long downtown to northtowns residence requires multiple parameters to align almost perfectly. That set of parameters seems to have had a return interval of about 10 years until the early 2000s, but for whatever reason, the odds against them seem to have gotten much worse. If any parameter is off, we see outcomes ranging from no band at all to a transient band with a short residence in most of the city to a band that reverts to a more WSW or W alignment. The tolerances are so fine that as soon as any single credible model loses a 235/240 flow, the chances of a downtown to northtowns band drops to basically zero. So this is no surprise — in reality we lost this one days ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: That was a classic show. Indeed, it was!!! Our age is showing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: 1 weenie, 2 weenie, 3 weenie, 4, 5 weenie, 6 weenie, 7 weenie or? On this board at least, I would default to Delta... As he probably knows more of the intricacies of lake effect snow off Erie... For what it's worth, my opinion is that metro Buffalo is ground Zero.... Within 10 miles either side of of the metro in play for the heaviest snow fall. I still believe there will be A 20 mile swath of 12 to 18" with some lollipops of 2'+. Off Ontario this looks to be between Watertown and Adams... I'd expect the same amounts in that area with maybe 24" somewhere and the central/northern Tug. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 24 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: On this board at least, I would default to Delta... As he probably knows more of the intricacies of lake effect snow off Erie... For what it's worth, my opinion is that metro Buffalo is ground Zero.... Within 10 miles either side of of the metro in play for the heaviest snow fall. I still believe there will be A 20 mile swath of 12 to 18" with some lollipops of 2'+. Off Ontario this looks to be between Watertown and Adams... I'd expect the same amounts in that area with maybe 24" somewhere and the central/northern Tug. I'll take my 2-4" of downsloping dandy while 10 miles west gets 1-2' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 41 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I just watched a bunch of episodes on disney plus the other day. I used to watch this show everyday after school. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 38 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: On this board at least, I would default to Delta... As he probably knows more of the intricacies of lake effect snow off Erie... For what it's worth, my opinion is that metro Buffalo is ground Zero.... Within 10 miles either side of of the metro in play for the heaviest snow fall. I still believe there will be A 20 mile swath of 12 to 18" with some lollipops of 2'+. Off Ontario this looks to be between Watertown and Adams... I'd expect the same amounts in that area with maybe 24" somewhere and the central/northern Tug. Agreed. My call yesterday texting Devin was 22" max 2-3 miles south of airport. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 12z 3k NAM coming is super weak, almost a non event lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Sometimes when I sit here “patiently” waiting for each new hour frame to load I wonder if the models ever sit there watching me the same way? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 For all you snow depth weenies whatever does fall looks to be on the ground for several weeks. The warm up Sunday looks quite muted now. We've had the grass covered here since Saturday. Still have high hopes for a great January for all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: 12z 3k NAM coming is super weak, almost a non event lmao. Hmmm so NAM says put the brakes on tonight and tomorrow… and unload north of Buffalo tomorrow night? This 12z run should be interesting! lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 When the RGEM comes in hot but all the other models show 2" 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: For all you snow depth weenies whatever does fall looks to be on the ground for several weeks. The warm up Sunday looks quite muted now. We've had the grass covered here since Saturday. Still have high hopes for a great January for all. Well, the lakes better start providing...because the bloody synoptic pattern sure isn't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 My call, from north to south: * My house (Snyder, just west of Williamsville): <1" * BUF Airport: 4" * Lancaster/Depew: 12" * Ebenezer (West Seneca): 18" * Orchard Park: 8" * Hamburg: 6" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Buffalo Bumble said: My call, from north to south: * My house (Snyder, just west of Williamsville): <1" * BUF Airport: 4" * Lancaster/Depew: 12" * Ebenezer (West Seneca): 18" * Orchard Park: 8" * Hamburg: 6" Too low for the airport. Foot at KBUF 8” in Williamsville 3-6 for west Amherst/Snyder and I sgeee with the rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 12Z RGEM, Metro and northtown special 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 12z runs locked into a very nice agreement! The original call from KBUF still looking spot on. Might not be our double whoppers with cheese meal but I'm still down! Let's get this show on the road! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: 12z runs locked into a very nice agreement! The original call from KBUF still looking spot on. Might not be our double whoppers with cheese meal but I'm still down! Let's get this show on the road! Most of those included all of metro Buffalo north-side and south side. Looks good ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 While I NEVER feel comfortable about LES, seeing all 6 models pretty much lockstep right now does make me a bit more optimistic. And looking at the snowfall forecast map from the NWS the biggest difference is the stripes of snow north of Buffalo have widened by a few miles. The 8-12” now solidly gets near the 990 and the 4-8 gets all the way to Tonawanda by the 290. This is different from yesterday when those areas were more in the 2-4 category, and the 8-12” area was a cutoff right near my location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: While I NEVER feel comfortable about LES, seeing all 6 models pretty much lockstep right now does make me a bit more optimistic. Feeling really optimistic after looking at Michigan, we will have a stronger band then they do and thats 1"+ per hour already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Feeling really optimistic after looking at Michigan, we will have a stronger band then they do and thats 1"+ per hour already. And look at that trajectory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Feeling really optimistic after looking at Michigan, we will have a stronger band then they do and thats 1"+ per hour already. Tempted to try and intercept the front and squall line when it comes through near sunset. Looks like after that we don’t see anything organizing LES until 10pm or even later… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 12 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Tempted to try and intercept the front and squall line when it comes through near sunset. Looks like after that we don’t see anything organizing LES until 10pm or even later… I'll be taking an afternoon nap and chasing all night. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'll be taking an afternoon nap and chasing all night. Keep us posted!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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