Thinksnow18 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah I lived in Orchard Park/Blasdell border for that event. I think my total was 28-30". I remember quite a bit of thunder and lightning with that event even though the rates were not too high. Could be similar to this one. That HRRR has my confidence a bit renewed. I never thought I’d get the jackpot, 1/100 times we do, but I still expected between 8-10”…as the day went on I was thinking more 4-6” but now I’m feeling a bit more confident in the higher number again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 24 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Latest HRRR run blast metro Buf Spot on. Max of 17" almost right over KBUF. Band is still going at this point but when you loop it does look like it's starting to putter out by this point. Almost looks like the activity during the day Thursday will roll in as more pulse waves rather than a solid training band with shorter bursts of snow. Really looking like Wednesday night till Thursday morning will be the prime action. Still looking good to me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah I lived in Orchard Park/Blasdell border for that event. I think my total was 28-30". I remember quite a bit of thunder and lightning with that event even though the rates were not too high. Could be similar to this one. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2010-2011&event=B Then a lake plume developed by early afternoon on a 260 flow and intensified by 3 pm or so as it rolled into the Buffalo Southtowns. The band then lifted north a bit on a 255 flow during the early evening and remained pretty much locked in place for the next 30 hours or so. None of the parameters for lake effect were outstanding...but they were all quite favorable for a near perfect early season lake effect plume off Erie...850 mb temps of -11c...a fairly high equilibrium level/inversion (l0k ft.)...very good moisture fields below the inversion, good snow growth, no shear and moderate winds. There was the typical thunder and lightning we see during early season events but nothing extreme. The wind fields finally weakened with increasing shear as a surface ridge built in by Friday morning (3rd)...disrupting and dissipating the band. Snowfall amounts were incredible within the band. A general 30 to 40 inches fell in about a five mile strip which ran from Lackawanna and southeast Buffalo...east northeast across northern West Seneca, south Cheektowaga, Depew and Lancaster over to Alden. Amounts dropped off steadily to the south...with about a foot in Orchard Park and less further south. The real story was the northern gradient though. Amounts dropped from two feet to a dusting in just a 3 or 4 mile distance! This was evident along north-south roads like Transit and Harlem. For example, no measurable snow fell at Main and Harlem, but two feet at Walden and Harlem. The Buffalo Airport was right at the cutoff...with 2 inches at its northwest comer and a foot at its southeast comer! Further west...no snow fell in Buffalo at North St., 4 inches at City Hall and a foot at HSBC arena...probably the most remarkable gradient ever seen across the city! This event had major impact...not only in the 300,000 or so people affected ...but from a major backup and shut down of the NYS Thruway from Exit 52 to 54...with hundreds stranded for almost 24 hours. Activity off Lake Ontario...usually fairly similar to Erie...did not materialize nearly as well this time. There was a broad area of snow showers and heavier snow...but single banding never did develop. Shear was much greater and temperatures a bit milder and marginal. A general 5 to 8 inches fell across areas where the snow persisted longest...one just north of Watertown over to Harrisville ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Talk about a brutal cutoff. Wow. What is the airport 1 mile nw to southeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 And the NAM says HELLO Niagara County! wtf… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Talk about a brutal cutoff. Wow. What is the airport 1 mile nw to southeast? Just checked 1.5 miles. 10 inches in that distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I don’t know if I’ve ever seen such a spread for a lake effect event that’s starting in 24-36 hours. You have the NAM 3k taking the band up to IAG meanwhile the RGEM barely gets the band up to my house and keeps it over the Boston Hills. I get it’s lake effect but holy cow. Literally no idea what’s going to happen but as BuffaloWeather said that’s the fun in lake effect! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 25 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2010-2011&event=B Then a lake plume developed by early afternoon on a 260 flow and intensified by 3 pm or so as it rolled into the Buffalo Southtowns. The band then lifted north a bit on a 255 flow during the early evening and remained pretty much locked in place for the next 30 hours or so. None of the parameters for lake effect were outstanding...but they were all quite favorable for a near perfect early season lake effect plume off Erie...850 mb temps of -11c...a fairly high equilibrium level/inversion (l0k ft.)...very good moisture fields below the inversion, good snow growth, no shear and moderate winds. There was the typical thunder and lightning we see during early season events but nothing extreme. The wind fields finally weakened with increasing shear as a surface ridge built in by Friday morning (3rd)...disrupting and dissipating the band. Snowfall amounts were incredible within the band. A general 30 to 40 inches fell in about a five mile strip which ran from Lackawanna and southeast Buffalo...east northeast across northern West Seneca, south Cheektowaga, Depew and Lancaster over to Alden. Amounts dropped off steadily to the south...with about a foot in Orchard Park and less further south. The real story was the northern gradient though. Amounts dropped from two feet to a dusting in just a 3 or 4 mile distance! This was evident along north-south roads like Transit and Harlem. For example, no measurable snow fell at Main and Harlem, but two feet at Walden and Harlem. The Buffalo Airport was right at the cutoff...with 2 inches at its northwest comer and a foot at its southeast comer! Further west...no snow fell in Buffalo at North St., 4 inches at City Hall and a foot at HSBC arena...probably the most remarkable gradient ever seen across the city! This event had major impact...not only in the 300,000 or so people affected ...but from a major backup and shut down of the NYS Thruway from Exit 52 to 54...with hundreds stranded for almost 24 hours. Activity off Lake Ontario...usually fairly similar to Erie...did not materialize nearly as well this time. There was a broad area of snow showers and heavier snow...but single banding never did develop. Shear was much greater and temperatures a bit milder and marginal. A general 5 to 8 inches fell across areas where the snow persisted longest...one just north of Watertown over to Harrisville ... I also just learned that 240 is more north Buffalo as 250 is Cheektowaga airport…that means the area from roughly the 990 south to Hamburg or just north slightly is fair game in a 240-250 vector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 DP is on WIVB…the right met to have in right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: I don’t know if I’ve ever seen such a spread for a lake effect event that’s starting in 24-36 hours. You have the NAM 3k taking the band up to IAG meanwhile the RGEM barely gets the band up to my house and keeps it over the Boston Hills. I get it’s lake effect but holy cow. Literally no idea what’s going to happen but as BuffaloWeather said that’s the fun in lake effect! Yeah this is crazy. I would not want to be a real met right now. How the heck are you calling this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Yeah this is crazy. I would not want to be a real met right now. How the heck are you calling this? Yeah no way. Maybe they wait until after tonight’s 00z runs to pull the trigger on warnings. I mean sure somewhere in Erie County is gonna get warning amounts so issuing a warning is almost a sure thing but where would you put the bullseye right now if you had to make a call. I agree with your map earlier and think the bullseye will be around WS somewhere but man I could see it being Amherst/Williamsville or Hamburg/OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Yeah this is crazy. I would not want to be a real met right now. How the heck are you calling this? Not a met but would call for warning n erie Genesee. Advisory for orleans monroe s erie and Wyoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Yeah no way. Maybe they wait until after tonight’s 00z runs to pull the trigger on warnings. I mean sure somewhere in Erie County is gonna get warning amounts so issuing a warning is almost a sure thing but where would you put the bullseye right now if you had to make a call. I agree with your map earlier and think the bullseye will be around WS somewhere but man I could see it being Amherst/Williamsville or Hamburg/OP. Don just said he thinks they’ll call it in the next half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 42 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: And the NAM says HELLO Niagara County! wtf… This is when that system approaches from mid west. They mentioned this in discussion. Would be late Thursday for niagara. So maybe put niagara in a watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 18 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Don just said he thinks they’ll call it in the next half hour. ill save you the anticipation... I shouldn't have to note this is FAKE but I will... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Don't look at rgem for you buffalo folks. Has 6 inches for entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 Wednesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 23. Windy, with a southwest wind 22 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Thursday Snow. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow before 9am. High near 28. Breezy, with a southwest wind 13 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow. Low around 21. West wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Don't look at rgem for you buffalo folks. Has 6 inches for entire event. Honestly It somewhat makes sense, not the amounts but could totally see as the coastal forms and moves up the coast it causes the winds to veer significantly. This so far is the only model to show this happening (only other model that goes out this far is the NAM atm) but I could see this scenario playing out. As I said earlier IMO this model has been the best at lake effect really so definitley gives a little pause to the huge amounts over the city or north towns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Don't look at rgem for you buffalo folks. Has 6 inches for entire event. RGEM is handling the band very strange. Were anticipating stronger winds with this event but it only brings the band part of the way into Erie County. It's not just going to float over mid lake like the output is showing for some reason. Have to toss RGEM at this point. If your not factoring the inland extent and variable the higher winds will add this run is worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: RGEM is handling the band very strange. Were anticipating stronger winds with this event but it only brings the band part of the way into Erie County. It's not just going to float over mid lake like the output is showing for some reason. Have to toss RGEM at this point. If your not factoring the inland extent and variable the higher winds will add this run is worthless. Idk it brings the band inland plenty until the coastal takes over and winds start to shift and it backs it out over the lake and slowly kills it off. Not saying it’s right but it definitely has the band inland before winds shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 What a mess. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 It's so nice not having to stress about where a lake effect snow band is going to set up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Idk it brings the band inland plenty until the coastal takes over and winds start to shift and it backs it out over the lake and slowly kills it off. Not saying it’s right but it definitely has the band inland before winds shift. Yeah that system is making me a bit nervous now. GFS says don’t worry but RGEM and ICON say panic. Few good blurbs from DP… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Updated map. Keeps on shrinking. now in the 8-12” zone here, barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 59 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Yeah that system is making me a bit nervous now. GFS says don’t worry but RGEM and ICON say panic. Few good blurbs from DP… When have you EVER looked to the ICON fir Lake Effect?!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Updated map. Keeps on shrinking. now in the 8-12” zone here, barely. The bullseye is shrinking but the area actually widened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: When have you EVER looked to the ICON fir Lake Effect?!?!?! I look at all the models. Best model for lake effect IMO is the RGEM, and when other guidance starts showing similar output regardless of the model it gives it more credence. Anything can happen but there’s no reason to ignore the trends which unfortunately for us don’t seem to be going in the right direction for a huge event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 46 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: I look at all the models. Best model for lake effect IMO is the RGEM, and when other guidance starts showing similar output regardless of the model it gives it more credence. Anything can happen but there’s no reason to ignore the trends which unfortunately for us don’t seem to be going in the right direction for a huge event. Huge event? No. A foot? I’m not going to throw that away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Our friend @tombo82685first good LES event? I’m hoping but Nws Buffalo saying nbd for lowville as all the action is in Watertown. Models all seem to put it more of a due west bad into lowville. So I have no clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: I’m hoping but Nws Buffalo saying nbd for lowville as all the action is in Watertown. Models all seem to put it more of a due west bad into lowville. So I have no clue They're probably going with the "band is usually more north than models show" tendency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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