Upstate/Eastern New York- Jan 5-7 Lake Effect Snow Event

[BuffaloWeather]

We take

Wednesday Night

Snow showers likely before 8pm, then snow after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow after 10pm. Low around 25. Windy, with a southwest wind 22 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow before noon. High near 29. Breezy, with a southwest wind 13 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Thursday Night

Snow. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Friday

Snow showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

[BuffaloWeather]

I haven't seen good thunder snow in awhile, we used to get it all the time. We had one bolt earlier this year that I missed. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Latest GFS has a strong band for 36 hours with WSW flow. Storm is far enough offshore to not have too much of an impact.

 

[DeltaT13]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Latest GFS has a strong band for 36 hours with WSW flow. Storm is far enough offshore to not have too much of an impact.

 

I don't love the look of those isobars as that coastal storm is definitely changing the pressure gradient up in our neck of the woods.  I still can't really figure out how we will get such a prolonged southwest wind event aside from thermal troughing because of the warm great lakes.  This setup definitely does not have the typical hallmarks of a long duration SW wind event.  We want a closed mid level low up over Hudson bay and no storm off the East Coast.  Could definitely see those bands ending up further South....

[Thinksnow18]

44 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I don't love the look of those isobars as that coastal storm is definitely changing the pressure gradient up in our neck of the woods.  I still can't really figure out how we will get such a prolonged southwest wind event aside from thermal troughing because of the warm great lakes.  This setup definitely does not have the typical hallmarks of a long duration SW wind event.  We want a closed mid level low up over Hudson bay and no storm off the East Coast.  Could definitely see those bands ending up further South....

Lmao it figures…probably why they haven’t pulled the plug and issued a warning yet

[lakeeffectkid383]

32 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Lmao it figures…probably why they haven’t pulled the plug and issued a warning yet

Gonna be a warning for 6-12” I think in most persistent bands. This ones just not it, too many factors working against it. 

[BuffaloWeather]

5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Gonna be a warning for 6-12” I think in most persistent bands. This ones just not it, too many factors working against it. 

Biggest event of the season by far for most.  Most of New York State would love 6-12”. Looks to stick around for awhile too. No big time warmup for next few weeks. 

[Thinksnow18]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We take

Wednesday Night

Snow showers likely before 8pm, then snow after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow after 10pm. Low around 25. Windy, with a southwest wind 22 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow before noon. High near 29. Breezy, with a southwest wind 13 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Thursday Night

Snow. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Friday

Snow showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Looks like for 14221 Williamsville the point forecast is for 5-9” Wednesday night and Thursday heavy snow until 1pm. They seem to still be sticking with that forecast…in fact this morning it was 4-8” so it went up slightly. Love to see what they’re seeing 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

BTV has a nice hit with the northern edge hugging downtown south for majority of event.  QPF max around an inch through most of central Erie which would fit right into the 12-18” range with the 15/20 ratios.  Can’t believe you guys are getting bummed already.  

[lakeeffectkid383]

1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

BTV has a nice hit with the northern edge hugging downtown south for majority of event.  QPF max around an inch through most of central Erie which would fit right into the 12-18” range with the 15/20 ratios.  Can’t believe you guys are getting bummed already.  

How are you still excited when that things showing a snow hole right over your head in the transition zone ? lol 

[Thinksnow18]

1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

BTV has a nice hit with the northern edge hugging downtown south for majority of event.  QPF max around an inch through most of central Erie which would fit right into the 12-18” range with the 15/20 ratios.  Can’t believe you guys are getting bummed already.  

That northern band is pure northern Erie. The second band is southtowns 

[DeltaT13]

2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

BTV has a nice hit with the northern edge hugging downtown south for majority of event.  QPF max around an inch through most of central Erie which would fit right into the 12-18” range with the 15/20 ratios.  Can’t believe you guys are getting bummed already.  

There will be a strong lake response, I just don't think we can be so sure on the band placement being as far North as we originally anticipated.  

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

11 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

How are you still excited when that things showing a snow hole right over your head in the transition zone ? lol 

Gotta ride the fringe if you wanna win!  I’m justttt far enough inland when you zoom in. Somewhere in here should be the jackpot zone. 

[Thinksnow18]

7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Gotta ride the fringe if you wanna win!  I’m justttt far enough inland when you zoom in. Somewhere in here should be the jackpot zone. 

In that pic my neighborhood is roughly in the area where Sheridan meets Main Street…then go to transit and it’s right there…solidly in the heaviest snows…

[Thinksnow18]

34 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

In that pic my neighborhood is roughly in the area where Sheridan meets Main Street…then go to transit and it’s right there…solidly in the heaviest snows…

Just noticed an update to the AFD…now calling for 240-250 vector winds and plume could now last until Thursday night and maybe Friday as well. Said will move around a bit Thursday within those vector parameters 

[BuffaloWeather]

...Significant Lake Snows Northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario...

Strong cold front plows across western and north central New York by
Wed evening. In its wake, H85 temps will plummet to between -12 and
-15c on Wed night. This will ignite lake induced instability over
the 40F (+4c) lakes and set the stage for accumulating snows in both
the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas.

Off Lk Erie, a well aligned 240-250 flow will become established
during the first half of Wed night. While the cap will only be 7-
8kft, a 3-5kft thick DGZ should be able to support a single plume of
moderate to occasionally heavy lake snow that will extend across the
Buffalo metro area. Snowfall rates will range from a half to 1.5
inches an hour, and this should promote snowfall amounts by daybreak
Thu up to 8 inches from the Buffalo Metro area to near Corfu with
lesser amounts extending northeast to western Monroe county. Snow to
water ratios will be on the high side as they often are in LES
events with ratios of 15-20:1, resulting in greater accumulations.
Have kept mention of lightning for sites within a 20 miles or so
from the lake (source of instability) as -10c isotherm will be some
3-4kft off the sfc. Blowing snow will be an issue at times on Wed
night in open areas with wind gusts to 40-45 mph in the evening
trending down to 30 mph or so by daybreak Thu.

The plume of snow should generally remain locked in place through
the day Thu though it could waver from time to time. The cap will
come down a bit to around 5kft, so this should lessen snowfall rates
to an inch or less. Daytime snow accums for BUF and the immediate
Southtowns to about Darien to Batavia should average 4 to 6 inches.

If it does get locked in place we could be looking at some bigger totals. But they expect snowfall rates of .5-1.5" per hour. I've never seen thunder snow with those rates. Most thunder snow is 2-3" per+

[BuffaloWeather]

Latest HRRR run blast metro Buf

[wolfie09]

On Thursday, a 240 to 250 flow will keep the heaviest lake snow
between Watertown and the northern slopes of the Tug Hill. Need to
watch this time though as some guidance veers winds at top of
convective layer more westerly to bring Tug Hill, Oswego county more
into concentrated lake effect. Will not trend to strongly to this
yet though. Guidance is also suggesting that an upstream connection
becomes established to Lake Huron and Georgian Bay so this should
help to boost snowfall rates to an inch or more an hour. The snow to
water ratios will be in the teens to near 20:1 so a lighter fluffier
snow will be easier to accumulate and blow around. Expect additional
6-9" of snow where bands are most persistent on Thu.

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, wolfie09 said:

On Thursday, a 240 to 250 flow will keep the heaviest lake snow
between Watertown and the northern slopes of the Tug Hill. Need to
watch this time though as some guidance veers winds at top of
convective layer more westerly to bring Tug Hill, Oswego county more
into concentrated lake effect. Will not trend to strongly to this
yet though. Guidance is also suggesting that an upstream connection
becomes established to Lake Huron and Georgian Bay so this should
help to boost snowfall rates to an inch or more an hour. The snow to
water ratios will be in the teens to near 20:1 so a lighter fluffier
snow will be easier to accumulate and blow around. Expect additional
6-9" of snow where bands are most persistent on Thu.

Our friend @tombo82685first good LES event? 

[Thinksnow18]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Latest HRRR run blast metro Buf

Man these models are all over the place!!! No wonder they still haven’t made a call yet 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Man these models are all over the place!!! No wonder they still haven’t made a call yet 

We know LES cant be predicted perfectly. I remember in Nov 2000 the forecast was 4-8" and we got 25" in like 6 hours. 

[wolfie09]

Could be decent, depends on the amount of downsloping, if any..

[Thinksnow18]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We know LES cant be predicted perfectly. I remember in Nov 2000 the forecast was 4-8" and we got 25" in like 6 hours. 

I remember that. I was coming home from Syracuse and remembered there was a warning for the northern part of the county but I believe Buffalo got smoked as the band just stalled over the city. 

[DeltaT13]

13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Latest HRRR run blast metro Buf

I don’t think I’m going after this one but that does look enticing. Chasing in the metro and heavily populated areas is my absolute favorite 

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

I remember that. I was coming home from Syracuse and remembered there was a warning for the northern part of the county but I believe Buffalo got smoked as the band just stalled over the city. 

Yep I remember that day vividly. We got stuck overnight at school. So much fun. The NWS never expected the band to stall over the Metro like it did. They also didn't expect the rates that were in that band. 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

I don’t think I’m going after this one but that does look enticing. Chasing in the metro and heavily populated areas is my absolute favorite 

Any mention of thunder snow says to chase it, but I agree. Maybe wait until the band forms as we should know pretty quickly how strong it is. Thursday morning looks like the best bet for highest rates. 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

...Significant Lake Snows Northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario...

Strong cold front plows across western and north central New York by
Wed evening. In its wake, H85 temps will plummet to between -12 and
-15c on Wed night. This will ignite lake induced instability over
the 40F (+4c) lakes and set the stage for accumulating snows in both
the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas.

Off Lk Erie, a well aligned 240-250 flow will become established
during the first half of Wed night. While the cap will only be 7-
8kft, a 3-5kft thick DGZ should be able to support a single plume of
moderate to occasionally heavy lake snow that will extend across the
Buffalo metro area. Snowfall rates will range from a half to 1.5
inches an hour, and this should promote snowfall amounts by daybreak
Thu up to 8 inches from the Buffalo Metro area to near Corfu with
lesser amounts extending northeast to western Monroe county. Snow to
water ratios will be on the high side as they often are in LES
events with ratios of 15-20:1, resulting in greater accumulations.
Have kept mention of lightning for sites within a 20 miles or so
from the lake (source of instability) as -10c isotherm will be some
3-4kft off the sfc. Blowing snow will be an issue at times on Wed
night in open areas with wind gusts to 40-45 mph in the evening
trending down to 30 mph or so by daybreak Thu.

The plume of snow should generally remain locked in place through
the day Thu though it could waver from time to time. The cap will
come down a bit to around 5kft, so this should lessen snowfall rates
to an inch or less. Daytime snow accums for BUF and the immediate
Southtowns to about Darien to Batavia should average 4 to 6 inches.

If it does get locked in place we could be looking at some bigger totals. But they expect snowfall rates of .5-1.5" per hour. I've never seen thunder snow with those rates. Most thunder snow is 2-3" per+

Yeah, I find the drastic drop in rates to be a bit much, but I keep thinking back to Dec 2010 that band locked in around this same area and snowfall rates only averaged about 1-1.5" but they just kept going all day.  Duration will likely be the limiting OR rewarding factor in the jackpot zone.  That small 2-3 mile wide sliver that convergences on the northern edge of the band will likely be the peak rates  REALLY excited for the 0z runs of the high res tonight to see thoughts on daytime accumulations.  

[BuffaloWeather]

For instance the NAM was putting out 3 feet totals for the first Nov 2014 event and max totals were 65", almost double the model output. But there are even more events that forecast feet that end up being duds. That's why LES is so much fun. 

However, 40-45 Mph winds, a low cap, and meandering wind directions make me think this has more of a chance to be a dud then overachieve. 

[Thinksnow18]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Yep I remember that day vividly. We got stuck overnight at school. So much fun. The NWS never expected the band to stall over the Metro like it did. They also didn't expect the rates that were in that band. 

It was nuts…took my GMC Jimmy from my parents house in NT and got as far as the 198…there were cars stuck everywhere especially near Delaware park. I had 4 wheel drive and was fine but I felt for some of those drivers. 

[BuffaloWeather]

5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Yeah, I find the drastic drop in rates to be a bit much, but I keep thinking back to Dec 2010 that band locked in around this same area and snowfall rates only averaged about 1-1.5" but they just kept going all day.  Duration will likely be the limiting OR rewarding factor in the jackpot zone.  That small 2-3 mile wide sliver that convergences on the northern edge of the band will likely be the peak rates  REALLY excited for the 0z runs of the high res tonight to see thoughts on daytime accumulations.  

Yeah I lived in Orchard Park/Blasdell border for that event. I think my total was 28-30". I remember quite a bit of thunder and lightning with that event even though the rates were not too high. Could be similar to this one.