tim123 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Nam looks a mess in Regard to lake snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 HiRes is still showing several hours of snow showers off Lake Erie tonight. Nothing major but 2-3" with the colder temps the fluff adds up. BUF is not interested at all only calling for scattered flurries. Seeing a few returns lighting up over Erie so who knows, maybe a little appetizer before the big one! These are through midday tomorrow only. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 8 minutes ago, tim123 said: Nam looks a mess in Regard to lake snow. huh? not sure what nam your looking at, but this looks pretty good to me, 10" down by sunrise Thursday with a full day of snow still to go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Moves around alot then falls apart at end of run. Probally just out of its good range still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3k has a razor thin squall line along the front lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 Feel pretty confident that this won't be a blockbuster event, still think 10-20" across Central Erie County. That band Thursday morning should peak around 2-3" per hour. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 With the AFD this morning and how it reads I’m kinda shocked they didn’t pull the trigger in a lame snow warning. It’s extremely pin point and they give out a locked 240 wind for the entirety of the event and up to 9” overnight with 5-8 more on Thursday. Metro Buffalo out to corfu will be the heaviest accumulation, in their verbiage, with lightning up to 20 miles away from the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: With the AFD this morning and how it reads I’m kinda shocked they didn’t pull the trigger in a lame snow warning. It’s extremely pin point and they give out a locked 240 wind for the entirety of the event and up to 9” overnight with 5-8 more on Thursday. Metro Buffalo out to corfu will be the heaviest accumulation, in their verbiage, with lightning up to 20 miles away from the lake. I’m not. Have you looked at model runs this morning? I can’t find one model that puts out more than 8-10” even with ratios anywhere. They’ve backed way off of their totals since yesterday and I’m pretty sure it has to do with that costal storm moving closer and disrupting the flow. To me this is gonna be a low end warning event with 8-12” MAX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Channel 2 ,4, and 7 “in house” models are showing the band barely ever making it to Buffalo. Keeps it locked over the Southtowns the entire time from Me to at times grazing South Buffalo Steve. We know the bands always land up 5 miles or so north with these events when the lake is still so warm but it’s gonna be really close for north of the Airport I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 52 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Channel 2 ,4, and 7 “in house” models are showing the band barely ever making it to Buffalo. Keeps it locked over the Southtowns the entire time from Me to at times grazing South Buffalo Steve. We know the bands always land up 5 miles or so north with these events when the lake is still so warm but it’s gonna be really close for north of the Airport I think. Weird right? I fought that battle yesterday and found out they’re gibberish. On that note the NWS is really locked in that 240 vector. But with lake effect you never know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 That storm system getting closer to us reduces the LES impacts substantially creates sheer and less residence time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That storm system getting closer to us reduces the LES impacts substantially creates sheer and less residence time. Isn’t it odd the GFS and Euro completely swapped places??? Ok maybe not that weird… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 ...Significant Lake Snows Northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario... A strong cold front will plow across western and north central New York late Wednesday afternoon and evening. In its wake...H85 temps will plummet to between -12 and -14c. This will ignite lake induced instability over the 40 deg (+4c) lakes and wake up the slumbering lake effect machine and set the stage for accumulating snows in both the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas. Off Lk Erie...a well aligned 240 flow will become established during the first half of Wednesday night. While the cap will only be 7-8kft of the deck...sufficient synoptic moisture and a 3-5kft thick DGZ should be able to support a single plume of moderate to occasionally heavy lake snow that will extend across the Buffalo metro area. Snowfall rates will range from a half to 1.5 inches an hour...and this should promote overnight snowfall amounts up to 9 inches from the Buf metro area to near Corfu with lesser amounts extending northeast to western Monroe county. Snow to water ratios will be on the high side...as they often are in les events...with ratios of 15 to 20:1 anticipated. This will promote greater accumulations. Have added the chance for lightning for sites within a 20 miles or so from the lake (source of instability)...as -10c isotherm will be some 3-4kft off the sfc. Blowing snow may be an issue with wind gusts to 30 mph or so. The plume of snow should generally remain locked in place through the day Thursday...as guidance is suggesting that the 240 flow will persist. The cap will come down a bit though...so this should lessen snowfall rates to an inch or less. Daytime snow accums for Buf and its immediate srn suburbs to about Darien to Batavia should average 5 to 8 inches. Again...snow to water ratios will be in the vcnty of 15/20:1. Very similar parameters will be found east of Lake Ontario...but as is usually the case...the event will unfold a few hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Yup I knew it would happen lol Instead of a slow solid band moving south Thursday night/Friday morning I get another synoptic trace lol I just can't win this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: ...Significant Lake Snows Northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario... A strong cold front will plow across western and north central New York late Wednesday afternoon and evening. In its wake...H85 temps will plummet to between -12 and -14c. This will ignite lake induced instability over the 40 deg (+4c) lakes and wake up the slumbering lake effect machine and set the stage for accumulating snows in both the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas. Off Lk Erie...a well aligned 240 flow will become established during the first half of Wednesday night. While the cap will only be 7-8kft of the deck...sufficient synoptic moisture and a 3-5kft thick DGZ should be able to support a single plume of moderate to occasionally heavy lake snow that will extend across the Buffalo metro area. Snowfall rates will range from a half to 1.5 inches an hour...and this should promote overnight snowfall amounts up to 9 inches from the Buf metro area to near Corfu with lesser amounts extending northeast to western Monroe county. Snow to water ratios will be on the high side...as they often are in les events...with ratios of 15 to 20:1 anticipated. This will promote greater accumulations. Have added the chance for lightning for sites within a 20 miles or so from the lake (source of instability)...as -10c isotherm will be some 3-4kft off the sfc. Blowing snow may be an issue with wind gusts to 30 mph or so. The plume of snow should generally remain locked in place through the day Thursday...as guidance is suggesting that the 240 flow will persist. The cap will come down a bit though...so this should lessen snowfall rates to an inch or less. Daytime snow accums for Buf and its immediate srn suburbs to about Darien to Batavia should average 5 to 8 inches. Again...snow to water ratios will be in the vcnty of 15/20:1. Very similar parameters will be found east of Lake Ontario...but as is usually the case...the event will unfold a few hours later. They seem very confident in the band placement generally staying locked. The issue seems to be the snowfall rates are not showing to be overall intense especially during the day Thursday. Could translate to why the model precip output so far has not been that impressive. Still like the map they have with a 12-18 bullseye near the metro. Still shaping up to be a solid event! Leaving some room for a little overachieving 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Well it would be better than nothing lol Areas just outside of the main lake bands where accumulating snows could still impact travel...including western Monroe county and northern Oswego county...could eventually find themselves in Winter Weather Advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 37 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: They seem very confident in the band placement generally staying locked. The issue seems to be the snowfall rates are not showing to be overall intense especially during the day Thursday. Could translate to why the model precip output so far has not been that impressive. Still like the map they have with a 12-18 bullseye near the metro. Still shaping up to be a solid event! Leaving some room for a little overachieving There’s one factor I’m surprised they haven’t mentioned and that’s when the entire lake is in play that can be more than sufficient to rev up the amounts. If that we’re to happen and it locks on the city? Woof…that would be insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12z HiRes looking pretty good for first half of event already. I’ll post the mashup once they all run through 48 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 Channel 4 and 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Channel 4 and 7 What’s odd is none of those are a 240 vector. That’s more 250…I see a lot of biases with models that are inherently born jnto their design. For example, if you look at the GFS output for any total snowfall output Syracuse is always a huge number…that never comes a fraction of that amount. I think these models have algorithm flaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Some time ago Don used a wind vector that showed how the lake bands were directed. Do any of you have this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Some time ago Don used a wind vector that showed how the lake bands were directed. Do any of you have this? I remember the exact map your talking about but I can’t seem to find it anywhere at all. This is a wind direction degree chart. 240 flow is more towards WSW and looks spot on to the direction the maps posted above show IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12z HiRes mashup. These are all through 48 hours (7:00am Thursday) so just the first half of the event really. I'm still onboard! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 RGEM went south with the band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: 12z HiRes mashup. These are all through 48 hours (7:00am Thursday) so just the first half of the event really. I'm still onboard! I think your in a great spot. I really think this may be a transition zone special. I think this band locks in just south of the airport and you’ll be just about in the bullseye from you over to Northern WS/S Cheektowaga/ S Lancaster. Still not sold on huge amounts but I could see you scoring 12”+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: RGEM went south with the band I think it’ll make it further north than this for sure but this is the best lake effect model and it keeps shifting things south with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said: 12z HiRes mashup. These are all through 48 hours (7:00am Thursday) so just the first half of the event really. I'm still onboard! Overall some good agreement between the HRW models, NAM, HRRR. Don't really buy anything the FV3 says but through it in the mix. The RGEM has been very disappointing in my opinion. It is not picking up the wind impacts at all. With 35mph winds that band isnt just going to float into and around central erie county like it is showing. Feel the other models have taken that into better account with the winds and the arctic front initially whip lashing the band until the main plume sets up. Falls into line with BUFs call for around 9" max by day break Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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