SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 well they beat the living hell out of the fact about the inversion heights being low. maybe a fist half dud but a second half stud? H85 temps will plummet to roughly -15C through the night. This will establish sufficient over-water instability over the 37-40F (+3 to +4c) lakes and set the stage for accumulating snows in both the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas. Due to stronger winds tonight and strongest lift occurring just below the DGZ, the lake effect will get off to a slow start through the first half of the night before organizing after midnight. Off Lk Erie, a fairly well aligned 240-250 flow (minimal shear in lake convective layer) becomes established later tonight. Inversion heights top out 6-8kft and models have been very consistent with this. The strong winds and marginal instability initially will not promote a strong lake response through late this evening. Overnight, boundary layer flow diminishes some, and instability will continue to grow, allowing for a band to become better established. The lake effect snow may develop just south of Buffalo initially before moving northward late tonight. Given the slow start this evening, lowered snowfall amounts tonight to the 2-4 inch range with most of that falling after midnight. The plume of snow should generally remain locked in place through Thursday centered on the Buffalo Metro area, although it could oscillate a bit north and south from time to time. The inversion will lower to around 6kft as has been shown for many days in guidance as axis of upper trough shifts east of Lake Erie. Daytime accumulations within the heart of the band are forecast to average 4- 7". Latest guidance suggests inversion heights will rise to around 10K feet Thursday evening as a trough approaches and brings deeper moisture into play. This may allow the band to intensify again for a few hours Thursday evening over Buffalo with additional accumulations likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: Man, those winds are fierce! Let's go, Rochester. They have been getting the shaft all winter. Actually roc has highest snowfall of all major reporting sites. Not saying much though. 18.8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 13 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: well they beat the living hell out of the fact about the inversion heights being low. maybe a fist half dud but a second half stud? H85 temps will plummet to roughly -15C through the night. This will establish sufficient over-water instability over the 37-40F (+3 to +4c) lakes and set the stage for accumulating snows in both the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas. Due to stronger winds tonight and strongest lift occurring just below the DGZ, the lake effect will get off to a slow start through the first half of the night before organizing after midnight. Off Lk Erie, a fairly well aligned 240-250 flow (minimal shear in lake convective layer) becomes established later tonight. Inversion heights top out 6-8kft and models have been very consistent with this. The strong winds and marginal instability initially will not promote a strong lake response through late this evening. Overnight, boundary layer flow diminishes some, and instability will continue to grow, allowing for a band to become better established. The lake effect snow may develop just south of Buffalo initially before moving northward late tonight. Given the slow start this evening, lowered snowfall amounts tonight to the 2-4 inch range with most of that falling after midnight. The plume of snow should generally remain locked in place through Thursday centered on the Buffalo Metro area, although it could oscillate a bit north and south from time to time. The inversion will lower to around 6kft as has been shown for many days in guidance as axis of upper trough shifts east of Lake Erie. Daytime accumulations within the heart of the band are forecast to average 4- 7". Latest guidance suggests inversion heights will rise to around 10K feet Thursday evening as a trough approaches and brings deeper moisture into play. This may allow the band to intensify again for a few hours Thursday evening over Buffalo with additional accumulations likely. Yeah high winds and strong LES bands don't really work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 36 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: No way! I thought Syracuse and Buffalo would have higher totals. I figured Rochester was shafted by being in that snow hole that usually requires synoptic systems. No. Rochester gets plenty of lake snow. Rochester averages more snow than buffalo. 100 inches. Buffalo is 95 i think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Never fails everytime we get a good LES setup high winds just ruin it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Surprised there is no high winds warning issued it’s insane out there with the winds.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Looks like it’s about to start getting its act together, returns starting to look better over the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Haha it’s 4 am the band looks like total garbage and I got half a dusting. Good thing they closed schools for this today lmao. Never fails, as Ayuud said, every time we have a good set up the winds are too strong. I could tell last night that it was WAY too windy outside to get a good band of snow going (on top of the already limiting factor of low cap height of course lol). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 NWS just lowered totals in the warning to 6-12” in the most persistent bands. This ones turning to a dud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Latest rgem says 4 to 6 for buf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 What a joke. 21-22 the winter that wasn't, continues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 Delayed but not denied. Whiteout conditions Buffalo north. Band looks stationary. Heart of that band looks 2-3” per. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 Skyway 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2” hr rates along WS Cheektowaga boarder… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 Transit rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, Buckeyes_Suck said: That stuff near Clarence is 3”+ per 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That stuff near Clarence is 3”+ per Yea not feeling well this morning so I haven’t moved yet but can’t see 20’ out the window right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Already 3” OTG Cheektowaga Walden near Harlem 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Afd calls for the band to stay put all day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 32 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That stuff near Clarence is 3”+ per I can confirm. Took me 30 minutes to get to the plant which normally takes 14 or so…Lancaster has about 5” still snowing heavily but I think the heaviest returns are just north. Was pouring snow when I left my house at 610. Wife says we have almost 3” since I left. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1.5 overnight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Steady snow here, looks like about 1”/hr rate. Fantastic dendrites, big fatties. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Happy Lake Effect Snow day, Buffalo crew! Enjoy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3"/hr accumulates fast. Don't you guys lose hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 Told y’all yesterday this is Buffalo north event. 2’ at Kbuf today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Stupid work lol… should be camped out in a good spot here for the day. Think I’ll be spending a lot of time out back on the loading dock today lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 About 3” down here. Right on the northern edge though. Just did a “foot chase” south, walked about a mile to Main St (near Harlem). Heavy snow there, easy 2”/hr. Ah, lake effect… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Told y’all yesterday this is Buffalo north event. 2’ at Kbuf today The models ended up being right. The ones you showed late last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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