DeltaT13 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I don't think I'm going to sleep much tonight. @DeltaT13 you chasing? 95 percent no. If I woke up and places had 18 inches already and 3 inch an hour rates (somehow, magically) I would probably call a crazy audible and head out. But honestly, this is still a moderate event in my opinion with a much higher chance of coming in lower than higher. But if I lived in Hamburg you bet your ass Id be out there for a little while tonight! and probably all day tomorrow. For me to chase Buffalo it’s a four hour minimum time investment and a lot of in between travel…..and that only gets me about 90 minutes in the fun stuff! I’d rather go out for 6-8 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Scotty hesko hedging south quite a bit. But he doesn’t have a lot of skin in this one anyway, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Does anyone know what the actual average snowfall is for Batavia? It seems like they get lake effect more often than one would think. I have found somewhere around 80 inches for an average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: As I was posting lol That’s in a trajectory for northern Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: That’s in a trajectory for northern Erie. That’s very intense already in the middle of that band and it’s only west end of the lake!!! That’s headed right now seemingly for long point…it may be near southern Niagara at this trajectory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 According Nws Buffalo still going to be waiting my first lake effect event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Dude I’m telling you the winds were CRANKING here like an hour or so ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 Huron is firing, another few hours before we get a strong band. IMG_3156.mp4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Does anyone know what the actual average snowfall is for Batavia? It seems like they get lake effect more often than one would think. I have found somewhere around 80 inches for an average. They’re in an interesting spot where some years they get crushed by both Erie in the SW events and also double and triple lake connections from Ontario huron and even superior (those super narrow bands that lock in overnight sometimes). But those are rare enough years that they probably don’t change the average. I imagine it’s around 80 overall though. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 BW have you looked at your point n click? All of them are remarkably different and not in a good way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 New NWS map really cuts back totals for here, looks more realistic IMO. About 6” here according to the map which is about what I’m expecting here. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Does anyone know what the actual average snowfall is for Batavia? It seems like they get lake effect more often than one would think. I have found somewhere around 80 inches for an average. I grew up in Batavia and still work there. IMO Batavia doesn't do that well for LE. In most cases Wyoming County could say get 12 inches, South Western Genesee County may be at 6-8 and Batavia would be at 4 inches 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 18 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: New NWS map really cuts back totals for here, looks more realistic IMO. About 6” here according to the map which is about what I’m expecting here. Winds are out of the west. Lake effect is on a east-west trajectory at the west end of the lake…is this a bust already? The warning started at 7 and the band is NOWHERE near forming. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Looking at the hrrr and high Rez Canadian, they both back the winds overnight but a band really doesn't get going until morning.. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I truly don’t understand how we’re going to get lake effect to form with these winds tonight. It’s absolutely unreal out. I’m having gust shake my house worse then the high wind warnings we had a few weeks ago, it’s fricken insane here right now. I bet we’re gusting close to 60mph if not over. I don’t understand how there’s not a high wind warning let alone an advisory. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: I truly don’t understand how we’re going to get lake effect to form with these winds tonight. It’s absolutely unreal out. I’m having gust shake my house worse then the hind wind warnings we had a few weeks ago, it’s fricken insane here right now. I bet we’re gusting close to 60mph if not over. I don’t understand how there’s not a high wind warning let alone an advisory. It definitely looks like more of a westerly wind right now. I could see those strong winds shredding the bands and sending them further inland than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just had a 55-60 mph gust or close to it. Unreal winds with no advisory. Not good for Lake effect band development. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Check out the Holiday Valley webcam Holiday Valley - Webcams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 Tonights models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Geez150 said: I grew up in Batavia and still work there. IMO Batavia doesn't do that well for LE. In most cases Wyoming County could say get 12 inches, South Western Genesee County may be at 6-8 and Batavia would be at 4 inches That’s true but Batavia has the ability to get 18-24 inch totals in the most perfect setups, which some people might not expect. Wyoming county was always one of the best locations during the good years. Elevation helps them a lot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 Looks like we have a band in development, some yellow returns already showing up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Just had a 55-60 mph gust or close to it. Unreal winds with no advisory. Not good for Lake effect band development. Winds are crazy tonight. Didn’t think that low really got strong enough to generate this much wind. Squall line earlier had some nice visuals! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 14 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: I truly don’t understand how we’re going to get lake effect to form with these winds tonight. It’s absolutely unreal out. I’m having gust shake my house worse then the high wind warnings we had a few weeks ago, it’s fricken insane here right now. I bet we’re gusting close to 60mph if not over. I don’t understand how there’s not a high wind warning let alone an advisory. My kind of lake effect! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 10 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: What are you thinking for timing on band tonight? General idea I am seeing doesn't really get the main band cranking until much closer to day break tomorrow? 3pm-5pm initial front and squall rolls through 9pm-12am secondary front and another squall broken lake plume settle in 2am-4am initial lake plume develops on WSW flow over central Erie and then slides north into or just south of the metro by 6am. 6am-6pm band will do it's magic somewhere in north / central Erie county. Still like this time line. I think the action over the lake now is just the secondary cold front blowing through and this will settle into WNY. Looking back to CLE radar can see feeders struggling to develop with the winds. Winds start to die down in a couple hours, and the band sets up south and heads into the metro at sunrise. Feel timing is pushed back to more of an all day Thursday event now as the band looks to keep going throughout the daylight hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Tonights models HRRR had 22" max in Cheektowaga ARW had a 24" bullseye right over my head! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just looked outside and literally said “ HOLY $h!t! , where the street light ?!?.” It’s literally snowing so hard and so windy it’s snowing completely sideways. Could barely see the street light on the corner of my road. It looks like that old weather channel blizzard icon on the bottom “ticker” on the TV. The winds are BEAST tonight. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 24 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Just looked outside and literally said “ HOLY $h!t! , where the street light ?!?.” It’s literally snowing so hard and so windy it’s snowing completely sideways. Could barely see the street light on the corner of my road. It looks like that old weather channel blizzard icon on the bottom “ticker” on the TV. The winds are BEAST tonight. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I could see us maybe even getting some leftovers from Lake Erie on those strong winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Roc about to get squalls from erie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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