BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Watches just issued. Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville 115 PM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 9 inches or more possible in the most persistent lake snows. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph resulting in considerable blowing and drifting snow. First call map through 7 am Thursday 12Z guidance looks like winds start SW and transition to a more WSW direction for majority of the event. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Figures my covid isolation period ends Wednesday night so back to work Thursday morning. No chasing for me on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Best of luck for buffalo crew. Hopefully roc can get some scraps from the band. According to map orleans and monroe would get a advisory. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 30 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Figures my covid isolation period ends Wednesday night so back to work Thursday morning. No chasing for me on this one. My sons soccer team has been vivid ravaged, we were supposed to be in Ohio yesterday for a couple games and we didn’t go for other reasons, but learned this morning 5 of the 15 that went have tested positive. Good thing we missed it. As for this event upcoming I think it will move around enough to make most in our WNY forum happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Wednesday Night Snow showers likely before 9pm, then snow after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Thursday Night Snow. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 80%. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 53 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Watches just issued. Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville 115 PM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 9 inches or more possible in the most persistent lake snows. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph resulting in considerable blowing and drifting snow. First call map through 7 am Thursday 12Z guidance looks like winds start SW and transition to a more WSW direction for majority of the event. By that map alone I am leery. Look over lower Michigan and notice the winds over the southern tip of Lake Michigan out of the WSW and the northern part NNW…that doesn’t line up that way usually. Rotation alone would have a more WNW wind over southern Lake Michigan. Add in if the winds were WSW that far west our wind field would be closer to a true SW maybe even A SSW orientation. That looks off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Wednesday Night Snow showers likely before 9pm, then snow after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Thursday Night Snow. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 80%. A little different on my point n click…heavy snow after 7pm new precipitation 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch! Thursday heavy snow until noon. if that were to come to fruition then that’s a solid 15 hours over the metro nearby northtowns…that would make my winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 42 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Figures my covid isolation period ends Wednesday night so back to work Thursday morning. No chasing for me on this one. Just use NFL rules and test out of iso. Crap, I prob just got banned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: By that map alone I am leery. Look over lower Michigan and notice the winds over the southern tip of Lake Michigan out of the WSW and the northern part NNW…that doesn’t line up that way usually. Rotation alone would have a more WNW wind over southern Lake Michigan. Add in if the winds were WSW that far west our wind field would be closer to a true SW maybe even A SSW orientation. That looks off. Possible still too far out, wind direction many times is a nowcast event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: A little different on my point n click…heavy snow after 7pm new precipitation 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch! Thursday heavy snow until noon. if that were to come to fruition then that’s a solid 15 hours over the metro nearby northtowns…that would make my winter This is where KBUF expects the band to start initially. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Possible still too far out, wind direction many times is a nowcast event. 10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: By that map alone I am leery. Look over lower Michigan and notice the winds over the southern tip of Lake Michigan out of the WSW and the northern part NNW…that doesn’t line up that way usually. Rotation alone would have a more WNW wind over southern Lake Michigan. Add in if the winds were WSW that far west our wind field would be closer to a true SW maybe even A SSW orientation. That looks off. Think there may be a subtle trough over michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 @Thinksnow18 waiting for KBUF updated forecast discussion 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: @Thinksnow18 waiting for KBUF updated forecast discussion Lmao just read it…if correct I’ll sleep on Friday morning…reads 240 vector for the MAJORITY of the event!!! It gets even better…they’re expecting 20-1 ratios…combined with up to 40 mph gusts??? I can’t go there yet but some areas the B word might get thrown around… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ...Winter storm watches issued for potentially significant lake snows Wed night and Thu... Deep upper low aloft gradually opens up as it lifts across southern Quebec. At the sfc, 995mb sfc low over Upper Great Lakes slowly weakens while reaching Ottawa Valley on Wednesday night before exiting to the Canadian Maritimes on Thursday. Wednesday starts off quiet but then primary cold front arrives mid to late aftn. Expect swath of rain/snow quickly switching to snow as H85 temps drop off to less than -8c by late aftn. Once the front goes by, much colder air, down to -14c at H85 sweeps across Lake Erie and later in the evening across Lake Ontario. Water temps on both lakes sitting around 40F/4c so there will be more than ample over-water instability for a lake response into Thu. Even as main sfc low is well to the east by Thu, cold air pouring across the wide open lakes leads to lake induced troughing persisting through most of Thursday over the lower Great Lakes. Result of the low then the lake induced trough is a persistent SW 240 flow Wed evening through most of Thu. Convergent and well- aligned sw flow will support plumes of lake effect off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. BUFKIT profiles continue to show inversions 6- 8kft which is certainly not at the top end of significant lake effect events, but majority of DGZ will be within the lake convective layer so SLRs will be higher, likely reaching toward 20:1. This combined with more reasonable and superior performing Canadian model QPF results in several inches of lake effect maximizing Wed night through Thu morning off both Lake Erie (Metro Buffalo toward Southtowns) and Lake Ontario (northern portion of Jefferson and Lewis counties). During this time snowfall rates over an inch per hour are likely. One other thing to note, it still looks quite windy with gusts up to 40 mph, especially NE of the lakes through Wed night before diminishing on Thu. Winds this strong will result in considerable blowing and drifting snow. Though there are signals that beyond Wed night, primary plume of snow off both lakes will waver slightly, enough snow accumulation and impact from blowing snow to hoist winter storm watches northeast of both lakes. Watches begin on Wed evening (except midnight east of Lake Ontario) and go through early Thu evening. This is for the core of where biggest impact will be. Eventually more headlines (mainly advisories) will be needed on the edge of where the watch headlines are at present. Otherwise, Wed look for temps to peak in the upper 30s to low 40s then rapidly fall off Wed evening. Temps will then be found in the 20s by sunrise Thursday and not change much at all through the day. Later Thu into Thu night there are still differences on how far west low pressure developing over the southeast CONUS will track. Though the heaviest portion of that system likely stays toward Mid Atlantic should be enough forcing/lift and moisture wrapping back into the colder air to result in some light snow, with lake enhanced snow possible east of the lakes. Increased pops to categorical for all areas to cover it at this time. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Lake effect snow will likely continue east of the lakes Friday as seasonably cold air continues to flow across the lower Great Lakes. Additional accumulations will likely be tacked on during this time. There is some uncertainty in how long the broad troughing lingers over the Great Lakes, which will affect not only the persistence of lake effect chances as we move into the weekend, but also how long the cold air hangs out over the region, and how quickly ridging returns to the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 29 minutes ago, tim123 said: Think there may be a subtle trough over michigan That’s what the GFS and the CMC are showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 High winds and strong LES bands don't really occur very often. Something to keep in mind, especially weds night and overnight thursday when winds are strongest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 34 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Lmao just read it…if correct I’ll sleep on Friday morning…reads 240 vector for the MAJORITY of the event!!! It gets even better…they’re expecting 20-1 ratios…combined with up to 40 mph gusts??? I can’t go there yet but some areas the B word might get thrown around… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Buffalo mentioning advisories farther inland possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Nice pocket of -16 850s showing up in latest NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: High winds and strong LES bands don't really occur very often. Something to keep in mind, especially weds night and overnight thursday when winds are strongest. These don’t seem crazy strong through like some previous storms. They are currently advertising 40mph gusts. Nov 2014 part one we had winds gusting to 40mph most of the storm being on the edge of the band. But still something to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 What is that band 2 miles wide. Lol. Nam only has it hangin out in buffalo for about 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Well for here it comes down to the synoptic event..GFS,icon and UK bring a solid band south Thursday night into Friday but the Euro and Canadian bring in some weak sauce synoptic snow, messing up the flow lol Followed by some weak NW lake effect.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: What is that band 2 miles wide. Lol. Nam only has it hangin out in buffalo for about 6 hours. It also has it connecting the Lake Ontario band…winds won’t nearly be that strong. The NWS also says it’s leaning more heavily in the CMC at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: What is that band 2 miles wide. Lol. Nam only has it hangin out in buffalo for about 6 hours. 2 miles wide and 200 miles long... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 New map rochester would get a advisory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: New map rochester would get a advisory 12-18…I take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 16 minutes ago, tim123 said: New map rochester would get a advisory That's only through 7 pm too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: That was issues this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That's only through 7 pm too. WIVb did a complete 180…the band never leaves the metro…wobbles a bit south on Thursday afternoon…so now that it mentioned to me earlier that the local stations do not have in house models whose due they emulate? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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