ravensrule Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Honestly quite a few people here need serious medication. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 WB 18Z GFS….I am being only slightly melodramatic…the bleed toward the NAM has begun. Thee was a reason the NW burbs are only under WWA. I still think it is great if the DC metro gets a foot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 183 browser’s nice….stay with us throughout the year…it’s great here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Goalposts tightening. At 12Z MRB was 0.40” QPF. Looks like <0.20” at 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Yes, over for the NW burbs. 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: After all the meso runs I expected this. Most likely this is not our storm. Clearly its over. Not your storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said: and people are saying the gfs is a disaster?? Umm looks ok…I’m good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: For the snowfall map queens. So much panicking over every tick. That’s a good look! People need to chill. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 It’s a 20 mile wobble. Noise. We know where the bands will set up anyway. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, ravensrule said: Honestly quite a few people here need serious medication. Yeah but when you get 1-2 inches and 30 miles south gets 12+ is hard to take sometimes. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 What's the 10:1 maps look like out of curiosity? It seriously looked fringed AF as the maps rolled in haha! I'll take this to the bank any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: For the snowfall map queens. So much panicking over every tick. Jackpot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Yeah, this GfS run is just fine. 8 inches in Leesburg and 15 in DC lol. I think the sharp cutoff will be right around or just west of Leesburg. But overall, the models are pretty locked in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: That was a rather inexplicable meltdown. Cut that in half and the storm is a success. C’mon folks. We know how it works lol it’s all about perspective and where you live. This looks pretty good either way for DC to Annapolis even with some little ticks south but for the folks between Baltimore and the PA line, every little tick matters. Man does this appear to be a brutal cutoff but hey, I think the “southern” folks have earned this. 9 out of 10 times the NW folks do better. Let the metro folks have theirs 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Yeah but when you get 1-2 inches and 30 miles south gets 12+ is hard to take sometimes. Yep. Because it's that close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Let’s Go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, LP08 said: It’s a 20 mile wobble. Noise. We know where the bands will set up anyway. That's how EVERY storm is. It's like the eye of a cane staying on one point with 20 models runs up to the event. That doesn't happen. If this was a 100 mile shift, ok..but we're talking 20 miles and yes, even that has HUGE implications for people on the edge, I get that..but the over-exaggeration... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Umm looks ok…I’m good The bullseye is like 5 miles from my house. I’m good too. The north and west crew will outperform us like 9 out of 10 times. But I’m rooting for a broader precip shield and a MOCO death band so everybody eats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS….I am being only slightly melodramatic…the bleed toward the NAM has begun. Thee was a reason the NW burbs are only under WWA. I still think it is great if the DC metro gets a foot! Repeat this with me .. The. NAM. SUCKS. Now by the time the storm starts it may get it correct, but nothing is bleeding toward the NAM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 The 500mb and surface track didn't really change on the GFS. Maybe a slight north wobble at certain panels? But the cold/dry air push on the northern edge is stronger. That tightens the precip gradient, hence the reduction north of DC and same (or better) south of DC. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS….I am being only slightly melodramatic…the bleed toward the NAM has begun. Thee was a reason the NW burbs are only under WWA. I still think it is great if the DC metro gets a foot! I used to date a woman in Brunswick It's decently NW so yeah your totals are a fair amount lower but your area certainly does NOT speak for the NW burbs. I for one think you should just speak for Brunswick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Overall axis of snowfall is quite consistent now across guidance... I'm happy for that! Even the difference between GFS and NAM is now quite small compared to 18 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: The bullseye is like 5 miles from my house. I’m good too. The north and west crew will outperform us like 9 out of 10 times. But I’m rooting for a broader precip shield and a MOCO death band so everybody eats That snow map tells me the deathband will set up near us..closer to you…but that 15 is over my house. I guess it’s ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: The 500mb and surface track didn't really change on the GFS. Maybe a slight north wobble at certain panels? But the cold/dry air push on the northern edge is stronger. That tightens the precip gradient, hence the reduction north of DC and same (or better) south of DC. Better ratios north side. Actually looks like colder push helps northern side a bit more because it's a quicker flip. Consensus seems to be advisory level event south of I-70 and sharp increase to warning level for US 50 corridor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 lol j/k well not really ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: That was a rather inexplicable meltdown. Cut that in half and the storm is a success, those in the NW reaches should have expectations lower. C’mon folks. Oh believe me, mine are low. But hey whatever. I don’t believe models can be accurate to a range of 20-30 miles though, so I’ll keep hope alive. What does it hurt? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Another good run. By this time tomorrow most of dc Metro should be above average snowfall! Pretty good considering we had Christmas and New Years in the 60s/70s! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The 500mb and surface track didn't really change on the GFS. Maybe a slight north wobble at certain panels? But the cold/dry air push on the northern edge is stronger. That tightens the precip gradient, hence the reduction north of DC and same (or better) south of DC. Can’t that gradient also create a band on the edge? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: That's better than I thought it would be. Add in the hour 23 and I mean, I'll roll with 3-6" in MoCo. That was my expectation this whole time. 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If one was to come here and not seen 12z or 18z, they would think the storm disappeared off the coast of SC going by the descriptions here. Weenies are cray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 We’ve all been at this long enough to know there’s zero chance DC outdoes northern MOCO.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Y'all are so caught up in snow totals you didnt comment on the ridiculous low temps being spit out the gfs for Tuesday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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