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January 3, 2022 CAPE Storm Obs/Nowcast


WxUSAF
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Going to finish with ~14.5-15" in Fredericksburg,  over double what I expected.  Easily the second best storm since 2010, and might rival the ~18" of January 2016 due to the fact that it essentially all fell in one morning with ridiculous rates, and subjectively the circumstances surrounding this surprise storm. 

Also, can't find observations for EZF after 10:55, but they already had 2 hours of <0.25 mile visibility as of then and some of the lowest visibility of the storm here was the 11-12:30 timeframe, so they probably came very close to blizzard warning criteria. 

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9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

There was plenty of reason to be cautious with the strong gradient and to be skeptical of the loltastic 10-18” Kuchera amounts. But widespread warning criteria snow was not a surprise. 

Worked out pretty well.  100% needed a WSW, and it was a good idea to cap the higher totals to avoid a large bust. 

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A little late to reporting, but exactly 3 inches in the NE corner of Baltimore City. It was pure snow from 3:30 AM to 11:30 AM, just never quite got into those heavy bands. It was beautiful though, especially when the breeze picked up and the snow got fluffy and was blowing all around. I'll happily take 3 inches to kick off my winter. 

Congratulations to all the further south folks who scored big! I look forward to reading through all the totals a little later. 

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20 minutes ago, snowfan said:

My 2nd 8"+ snowfall in 3 weeks. 

12/18 in Vermont and today at home. Solid.

I'll be in Stowe this weekend to redeem the 60 degree Christmas torch I experienced in VT in 2020. I figure Stowe is a little higher and should see some snow this weekend. But I got a nice surprise at home before I go. So sweet. 

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26 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Do the Bethesda friends live in Chevy Chase? Either way they have to be less than one or two miles from me. I haven't gone out to measure (work ugh), but I was eyeballing anywhere between 5-7" by the looks of it. 8.5" seems high!

They didn't measure just said "like 8 inches" and I saw this report not far from them (they're off River Road close to the DC line and this report is a little north).  But this report looks a little high compared to others around and 5-7" for that area is probably more like it.

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This has been an unexpected joy to watch unfold. Thank you all so much, as always, for making this so enjoyable.

Just spitting a few flurries here now and appears to be winding down here in Odenton. Final measurement at 8 inches. Now we enjoy and see what Thursday evening may or may not bring. 

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Quick review of the new LWX spotter report list suggests all the WSWs verified except southern Harford county in MD. 

Do you have a link for that? I find the weather.gov website an incomprehensible mess.

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15 minutes ago, mappy said:

why are these people even on the roads?

I mentioned it earlier in the thread, but my parents have been stuck on 95S just north of Fredericksburg since about 9:15 am. They left a hotel in Springfield for their place in Florida this morning and tried to get through before the heaviest snow came in, but my dad (stupidly, and very unlike him) didn't take into account that others might not do so well in the snow. Jackknifed tractor trailers all over the place are blocking exit and entrance ramps, so no one can get off the road even if they wanted to.

Again...that was  dumb decision (I told them to stay put until things calmed down), and I'm sure plenty of others figured they could get to where they need to go without thinking of the ripple effects single-vehicle incidents and other potential multiple-vehicle accidents.

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1 minute ago, mattie g said:

I mentioned it earlier in the thread, but my parents have been stuck on 95S just north of Fredericksburg since about 9:15 am. They left a hotel in Springfield for their place in Florida this morning and tried to get through before the heaviest snow came in, but my dad (stupidly, and very unlike him) didn't take into account that others might not do so well in the snow. Jackknifed tractor trailers all over the place are blocking exit and entrance ramps, so no one can get off the road even if they wanted to.

Again...that was  dumb decision (I told them to stay put until things calmed down), and I'm sure plenty of others figured they could get to where they need to go without thinking of the ripple effects single-vehicle incidents and other potential multiple-vehicle accidents.

Im sorry to hear your parents have been stuck. Give them credit for trying to get out of town before the worst hit. Hope they get unstuck soon!

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Just now, mattie g said:

I mentioned it earlier in the thread, but my parents have been stuck on 95S just north of Fredericksburg since about 9:15 am. They left a hotel in Springfield for their place in Florida this morning and tried to get through before the heaviest snow came in, but my dad (stupidly, and very unlike him) didn't take into account that others might not do so well in the snow. Jackknifed tractor trailers all over the place are blocking exit and entrance ramps, so no one can get off the road even if they wanted to.

Again...that was  dumb decision (I told them to stay put until things calmed down), and I'm sure plenty of others figured they could get to where they need to go without thinking of the ripple effects single-vehicle incidents and other potential multiple-vehicle accidents.

My neighbor backed out of his driveway into the street and promptly got stuck.  After shoveling himself out, did he cancel whatever outing he had?  Nope, just continued on.  Some people evidently have different risk tolerances.

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