WEATHER53 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Only possible negative is it takes too long to chill down to snow. The high has eased a little and we won’t be snow here lower than 30.00 unless low is east of our longitude. Dont need what saved us to muck us up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: I just want to know….is the 3K NAM an improvement South of I-70 get accumulating snow. South of I-66 to US 50 gets warning level snow. It's an improvement for these locations. Good luck north of there, at least the Canadian/Euro/GFS have snow north to Mason-Dixon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Watching the water vapor loop and when should the tilt become negative if we want a snowy outcome? Currently looks mainly neutral if not a bit positive still. ninjaed I think a good rule of thumb that is it should be at least neutral leaning towards negative over the mouth of the Mississippi. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 ICON still running but definitely going to have a NW tick to totals. A bit more than the NAMs it looks like through hr19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: ICON still running but definitely going to have a NW tick to totals. A bit more than the NAMs it looks like through hr19 Yes, a slight jog NW compared to the prior run and looks like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Nam's put the NW burbs on suicide watch. Retire the damn thing already. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 WB ICON… :slight NW jog but NAM and ICON remain south of the GFS and EURO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 We need the storm to hit when tides are low. High tides adds more warm water and won't let temps fall. 1 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 ICON is an improvement for all 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, H2O said: We need the storm to hit when tides are low. High tides adds more warm water and won't let temps fall. Dang, they have a coastal flood advisory up too. Guess no snow. Time to write off winter. Bust. I’ll be back in 2023. *end sarcasm* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Blend the GFS and the Euro. Toss the ICON (always toss the ICON) The NAM is that voice in the back of your head, and the other models are noise. Call school and extend my winter break. Number two reason I became a teacher, winter break that is. Snow days are number three. Spring break four. Yeah you get it. We don't do anything. 60 in Vienna and warm af. People really go to college for this sh**t? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 18z RGEM nudged south slightly... but now shows a larger ribbon of 12"+ from around CHO to EZF into S MD that wasn't there at 12z 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 RGEM is pretty similar overall, narrows the jackpot zone on this map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Cold is coming. Temp down to 32/31 at the house at Deep Creek. DP readings in the 40s showing up in Winchester and Frederick. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 339 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region this evening, with low pressure then moving northeastward along the front late tonight into Monday. High pressure will return Tuesday before a weak system passes east Tuesday night. High pressure will return Wednesday before another system threatens for Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Latest analysis shows cold front across western Maryland and eastern West Virginia, sliding southeast across the region. To the south, low pressure is organizing over Alabama and Georgia and will be riding northeast across the Carolinas tonight and off the coast Monday. A few showers will cross the region this evening as the cold front crosses the area. Temps will fall rapidly behind the front. Quick on its heals, the low pressure will begin to spread precipitation northeastward across the region starting late this evening and continuing into the early morning. Guidance has come into better agreement and has trended significantly further northwest, so have increased snowfall totals and expanded warnings and advisories. Will be continually reviewing latest guidance this evening given still significantly discrepancies between model guidance, as well as great potential for a very sharp northwestern cut-off with some models showing a range from nothing to 6 inches within just a dozen miles or so. Great concern exists regarding potential for an intense FGEN band developing close to the metro early Monday which could drop 1-3 inch snowfall rates across the region. At this time, best odds favor locales just southeast, but potential does exist for upwards of a foot somewhere in our CWA. Nailing that location down is the hard part. Storm system looks a little slower so did extend some warnings into the mid-afternoon, with snow probably out of here by evening rush hour. There may be enough sun late in the day to warm temps back above freezing for most, which presents a re- freeze potential. 3 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Slightly cooler up here (just got back home). Nw breeze picking up a bit. Would prefer the old fashioned caa/north wind, but gotta start somewhere. I’m kinda resigned to this being an I95 storm but hopefully light precip makes it up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 This a strange situation where it is 60 degrees within 12 hours of a snow event, and we want to make sure that the cold air doesn’t come in too aggressively and forces the baroclinic zone too far south. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, MN Transplant said: This a strange situation where it is 60 degrees within 12 hours of a snow event, and we want to make sure that the cold air doesn’t come in too aggressively and forces the baroclinic zone too far south. I would be worried about the other way around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 34/28 in Pittsburgh 59/54 Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: This a strange situation where it is 60 degrees within 12 hours of a snow event, and we want to make sure that the cold air doesn’t come in too aggressively and forces the baroclinic zone too far south. Dude, I want that cold air down to the Loch Ness monster ride at BG. I don't want to be sweating thermals AT ALL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, nj2va said: Cold is coming. Temp down to 32/31 at the house at Deep Creek. DP readings in the 40s showing up in Winchester and Frederick. Yes. Temps falling nicely out here NW of Winchester. Front coming through now. Broken clouds 53/45 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, leesburg 04 said: 34/28 in Pittsburgh 59/54 Leesburg This is in.... ...formative 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, H2O said: Dude, I want that cold air down to the Loch Ness monster ride at BG. I don't want to be sweating thermals AT ALL You would be sweating profusely if you saw me in my thermals. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: You would be sweating profusely if you saw me in my thermals. I'm sweating profusely already. 60.7 here. warm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Big 18z GFS run here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: I'm sweating profusely already. 60.7 here. warm Relax brother we got this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, yoda said: Big 18z GFS run here Biggest of the year? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Where is the best linky for a map showing temps in color? I should know this but my go to of NWS maps is lacking showing the cold air marching norther Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, H2O said: Where is the best linky for a map showing temps in color? I should know this but my go to of NWS maps is lacking showing the cold air marching norther Man I hope you get a good storm you're melting down a little. Between you and grandpa Munster it's a little awkward up in here. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 If you want to sweat the cold FROPA, the SPC mesoanalysis is good to follow: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# Can choose either "Surface" or "Winter Weather" and see where the isotherms are packed to tell where the front is located. Based on the wind shift, it's getting close to the metros in MD/DC and a bit farther north in VA. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now