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January 3, 2022 CAPE Storm Obs/Nowcast


WxUSAF
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1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Northwest edge creeping very close to me, but looks like it’s stopped and expanding to the northeast. Some heavier returns approaching southeast Baltimore,

Yeah I knew we were gonna be sweatin' that edge...not sure how heavy it can get here. Still feel like the warning might not verify

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Just now, mattie g said:

Man...that cutoff is just brutal. As WxUSAF said, that could pay huge dividends for those of us not far south of the cutoff, but I feel for the folks north of it.

Even a lower elevation on the edge like where I am...I wonder if the same concept applies? (Or would I be considered "on the edge" lol)

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2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Man...that cutoff is just brutal. As WxUSAF said, that could pay huge dividends for those of us not far south of the cutoff, but I feel for the folks north of it.

So True.  I'm right on the cutoff in the SW Part of Carroll County and we have a bout .5 on the ground with flurries for the past 2 hours.  My daughter was pissed that they  only had a 2 hour delay today. :-)

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4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Man...that cutoff is just brutal. As WxUSAF said, that could pay huge dividends for those of us not far south of the cutoff, but I feel for the folks north of it.

Probably the edge will move north and fill in for a few hours this morning. Hopefully enough to get everyone on the board.

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8 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Northwest edge creeping very close to me, but looks like it’s stopped and expanding to the northeast. Some heavier returns approaching southeast Baltimore.

Yeah I'm keeping a close eye on it, hoping it doesn't sag south but it's a close call.

For once I am thankful for not being a few miles further north :lol:

giphy.gif

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Going to make some observations from the radar.

In the large black circled area we can see the heaviest snow returns, the arrows indicate where they appear to be going on the radar. This means that the major metropolitan centers like DC and maybe Baltimore have a good chance of seeing very heavy snowfall maybe around 2-3 inches per hour rates. The more exciting thing is in the hatched black area which shows more heavy bands forming, these are also moving northward. This means that we will most likely have several intense bands IMO, but each one will probably be further east based. Finally the blue circled zone is where the moisture from the southern push has hit the cold air push, notice how tight the gradient is, this means that we will probably see a very tight snow to nothing line instead of a more spread out precip shield. Or the gradient will break down and it is free to explode to the north, I don't know about that one.

COD NEXRAD_ LWX - Google Chrome 1_3_2022 8_07_30 AM (2)_LI.jpg

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