MN Transplant Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The low track is pretty crucial for our northern neighbors. The GFS and Euro take the surface low between Hattaras and Va Beach, and they have the further NW extent. The NAM and HRRR are over Hattaras and have a brutal cutoff. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Yeah, 3k FTW This map makes me feel like H20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 WB 3K NAM 1pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: How can it be a foot in DC & 0" in Leesburg? lol Just like it can be a foot in leesburg and 0 in dc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 36 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Winchester folks are like: Honestly with the historical N/W tick I'm right where I want to be lol ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Just like it can be a foot in leesburg and 0 in dc No, that's completely different and you know it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Now that would be the ultimate troll job...Baltimore right on the edge again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, LeesburgWx said: No, that's completely different and you know it... Nina's are famous for southern sliders and beach blizzards? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 March, 2009 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now that would be the ultimate troll job...Baltimore right on the edge again! That's quite the straight line from Kentucky to Hoboken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Wonderdog said: That's quite the straight line from Kentucky to Hoboken. Yeah seriously...it would be 2019 all over again...(yeah I'm still a tad bitter about that fringe job, lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Fairfax Station - SW of Burke Lake - reporting in. 61.7 F 29.54 in. 89% humidity. Remaining leaves removed from yard. WFT down 17-16. Family reasonably dubious about my claims that snow is imminent. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The low track is pretty crucial for our northern neighbors. The GFS and Euro take the surface low between Hattaras and Va Beach, and they have the further NW extent. The NAM and HRRR are over Hattaras and have a brutal cutoff. Yeah potential for a huge bust either way from IAD to Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Looks like I’ll at least be able to watch the virga from Frederick tomorrow on the nam. Intrigued with what the 18z gfs/euro have to say. If they continue the trend I’ll be more enthused. If not, congrats dc to bmore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 WB 3K NAM is a brutal cutoff but actually an improvement for the DC immediate suburbs compared to 12Z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The 18z 3k NAM is actually an improvement from I-66 to US 50 South. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah seriously...it would be 2019 all over again...(yeah I'm still a tad bitter about that fringe job, lol) You have to let it go lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Wonderdog said: You have to let it go lol Not if it happens again tomorrow, lol Now if I get a solid hit tomorrow...fringe forgiven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 hours ago we were saying: "It's the NAM, don't trust it." now we're saying "It's back on board, storm happening!" How I long for the days when all models were this bad I'll take my 14" and run! -- On another topic, COBB output from GFS was indicating 12:1 ratios on average, with some insanely high 22:1 ratios at times. Any chance that will occur? Typically we see 8:1 around here. Also gale warning on the bay. This is going to be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 62/58 here in ffx and making a drink before the ICON starts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Optimistically, a NW shift/precip improvement like that on the 3k this close to kickoff is a good sign for those abiding by the old last minute NW tick logic. Pessimistically, it could be seen as just bouncing between the goalposts of 06z and 12z and zeroing in. Really interested in what the RGEM has to say, if another meso starts doubting the GFS/euro I will be more worried. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 20 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now that would be the ultimate troll job...Baltimore right on the edge again! So NAM is onboard and Winchester, Philly, NYC and Boston get zero? WHOA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3:30pm on Jan 2 and it’s still 62. The angle of the cold is being obtuse 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Not if it happens again tomorrow, lol Now if I get a solid hit tomorrow...fringe forgiven Part of this is consciousness driven. You have to be nice to mother nature and wx models. I mean genuine too. In the heart. Or she will constantly torture you. You know the HoCo-MoCo deathband? That wasn't a fluke. It was a manifestation from me, @WxUSAF, and everyone in between. Sorta like karma but different. You need to earn snow here. If you hold grudges... umm.... well... don't do that 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Looking good. Moisture transport from the Gulf, too. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 No changes to my forecast. Playing the usual rule of thumb that the deform band ends up more NW than progged. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I just want to know….is the 3K NAM an improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Neutral tilt as it approaches the MS valley. Perfect timing so far. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Watching the water vapor loop and when should the tilt become negative if we want a snowy outcome? Currently looks mainly neutral if not a bit positive still. ninjaed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: I just want to know….is the 3K NAM an improvement yes, slight bump north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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