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January 3, 2022 CAPE Storm Obs/Nowcast


WxUSAF
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5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The low track is pretty crucial for our northern neighbors.  The GFS and Euro take the surface low between Hattaras and Va Beach, and they have the further NW extent. The NAM and HRRR are over Hattaras and have a brutal cutoff.

Yeah potential for a huge bust either way from IAD  to Baltimore.

 

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6 hours ago we were saying: "It's the NAM, don't trust it." now we're saying "It's back on board, storm happening!"

How I long for the days when all models were this bad :)

I'll take my 14" and run!

--

On another topic, COBB output from GFS was indicating 12:1 ratios on average, with some insanely high 22:1 ratios at times. Any chance that will occur? Typically we see 8:1 around here.

Also gale warning on the bay. This is going to be fun! :snowing::twister::snowing:

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Optimistically, a NW shift/precip improvement like that on the 3k this close to kickoff is a good sign for those abiding by the old last minute NW tick logic. Pessimistically, it could be seen as just bouncing between the goalposts of 06z and 12z and zeroing in. Really interested in what the RGEM has to say, if another meso starts doubting the GFS/euro I will be more worried.

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6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not if it happens again tomorrow, lol Now if I get a solid hit tomorrow...fringe forgiven :lol:

Part of this is consciousness driven. You have to be nice to mother nature and wx models. I mean genuine too. In the heart. Or she will constantly torture you. You know the HoCo-MoCo deathband? That wasn't a fluke. It was a manifestation from me, @WxUSAF, and everyone in between. Sorta like karma but different. You need to earn snow here. If you hold grudges... umm.... well... don't do that 

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