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January 3, 2022 CAPE Storm Obs/Nowcast


WxUSAF
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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Just goes to show how much timing means with weather. We don’t need the trifecta +PNA -AO -NAO setup to score  

Timing is always big. We don't need or even want a super positive PNA though for a big snowstorm.  The more important trifecta is the one that produces +heights straight across the HL region to our north.

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4 minutes ago, joc111 said:

image.png.2be45d9ea307f8d3ab35351bb532c2c4.png

   Mesoscale Discussion 0028
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0413 AM CST Mon Jan 03 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of southwest through northern Virginia and
   central Maryland

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 031013Z - 031415Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates around 1-2 inches per hour and
   occasionally greater appear increasingly possible along and to the
   east of the Virginia Blue Ridge Mountains, into the Greater
   Washington D.C. and Baltimore Metropolitan areas, through 7-10 AM
   EST.

   DISCUSSION...Precipitation rates have increased along a frontal zone
   north through north-northeast of a deepening surface cyclone center
   across the South Carolina Piedmont.  Although temperatures near the
   surface and in layers aloft are generally still warm to the east of
   the Appalachians, across much of the southern Mid Atlantic, a
   combination of strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent and
   gradual low-level cold advection on northerly surface flow is likely
   to contribute to profiles increasingly conducive to snow.

   Surface temperatures are already approaching freezing across much of
   the Greater Baltimore and Washington D.C. metro areas into the
   immediate lee of the Blue Ridge, where strengthening mid-level
   frontogenetic forcing for ascent appears likely to become focused,
   beneath an intensifying divergent flow field between coupled upper
   jets.  Forecast soundings suggest that lift will become increasingly
   maximized within the dendritic growth layer through 12-15Z, in the
   presence of seasonably high moisture content (including precipitable
   water on the order of .75-1.0 inches) supportive of 1-2 inch per
   hour snow rates, and perhaps occasionally heavier.

   ..Kerr.. 01/03/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...MRX...
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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Timing is always big. We don't need or even want a super positive PNA though for a big snowstorm.  The more important trifecta is the one that produces +heights straight across the HL region to our north.

Big facts! Hoping we’re able to squeeze one or two of those ideal setups in during this niña winter. 

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We’ve been under a steady moderate snow here for a while now. A lot of the heaviest moisture is to my south and east, drying up some of the moisture as bands move up this way. Expecting the area of best lift to continue to march NE over the coming hours. Meso analysis sounds pretty spot on. 7a-10am should be prime time for the Baltimore metro. Could see 4-6” in that small window  

32* snow 

- Ellicott city 

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:
   Mesoscale Discussion 0028
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0413 AM CST Mon Jan 03 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of southwest through northern Virginia and
   central Maryland

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 031013Z - 031415Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates around 1-2 inches per hour and
   occasionally greater appear increasingly possible along and to the
   east of the Virginia Blue Ridge Mountains, into the Greater
   Washington D.C. and Baltimore Metropolitan areas, through 7-10 AM
   EST.

   DISCUSSION...Precipitation rates have increased along a frontal zone
   north through north-northeast of a deepening surface cyclone center
   across the South Carolina Piedmont.  Although temperatures near the
   surface and in layers aloft are generally still warm to the east of
   the Appalachians, across much of the southern Mid Atlantic, a
   combination of strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent and
   gradual low-level cold advection on northerly surface flow is likely
   to contribute to profiles increasingly conducive to snow.

   Surface temperatures are already approaching freezing across much of
   the Greater Baltimore and Washington D.C. metro areas into the
   immediate lee of the Blue Ridge, where strengthening mid-level
   frontogenetic forcing for ascent appears likely to become focused,
   beneath an intensifying divergent flow field between coupled upper
   jets.  Forecast soundings suggest that lift will become increasingly
   maximized within the dendritic growth layer through 12-15Z, in the
   presence of seasonably high moisture content (including precipitable
   water on the order of .75-1.0 inches) supportive of 1-2 inch per
   hour snow rates, and perhaps occasionally heavier.

   ..Kerr.. 01/03/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...MRX...

I love it when SPC talks nerdy to me. :gun_bandana:

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