joc111 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 As I'm not sure what to expect as the morning progresses in Baltimore, I'm going to go out for a walk right now and enjoy this moment. First real snowfall of the winter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 It's a shame this band isn't all snow. Sleet/snow mix, mostly sleet right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, Ephesians2 said: It's a shame this band isn't all snow. Sleet/snow mix, mostly sleet right now Looks like it’s all snow in DC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Nice discussion from Mount Holly. Mention of blizzard conditions for coastal DE. Spectacular satellite imagery over the East this morning as a strong area of low pressure comes together to our southwest. Just a classic eastern US winter storm presentation. A blossoming shield of precipitation is now overspreading the local area. A major winter storm will affect southern portions of the area over the next 18 hours. The main change to the forecast overnight was an increase in QPF, and by association, snowfall, for areas previously within and that were just north of the previous Winter Storm Warning. The QPF increase is almost unanimously supported by the last two cycles of global and hi res guidance, and translates to an increase in snow totals. The most difficult portion of the forecast remains the northward extent of precipitation shield. Even many of the recent model runs which increased QPF across the south generally didn`t move the precipitation shield north much. The latest blend does bring amounts up somewhat in the I-95 corridor. However, there is likely to be an exceptionally sharp northern cutoff to accumulating snow, probably even sharper than the latest forecast, which as it is has a much sharper than normal gradient. Even across, for example, Philadelphia County, it would not be surprising to see a significant difference in totals. And for northern portions of the area, it will simply be a cloudy and cold day with perhaps some flurries. Confidence in snowfall is much greater for southern areas. It is clear now that a swath of heavy precipitation will overspread the region. Extreme frontogenetic forcing is allowing precipitation to expand in coverage and intensity to our southwest, and this will only continue today. While precipitation is beginning as rain in some places, temperatures are continuing to cool behind yesterday`s front, and a flip to snow will occur. One possible exception is far southeast Delaware, where rain or mix could hold on for longer. Amounts were reduced a bit there. Otherwise, a large stripe of 8 to 12 inches of snow is now forecast, and can`t rule out some localized amounts a little over 12 inches. Snowfall to our southwest has generally been over-performing, and this trend could continue into our area. Snowfall rates could easily exceed 1 inch per hour at times this morning, perhaps 2 inches per hour. While snow ratios overall will be less than 10:1, these rates will quickly overwhelm the warm ground conditions left by recent near record warmth. These snowfall rates could persist for several hours this morning and early afternoon. Banding features are certainly possible within the heavy snow shield, leading to some local variations. Eventually, precipitation will end from west to east late this afternoon and this evening as the area of low pressure moves out to sea. Northeast winds will become strong near the coast today, gusting in the 30 to 40 mph range for several hours. With heavy snow occurring through this period, a period of near blizzard conditions is possible for areas such as Sussex County DE and portions of Cape May and Atlantic Counties. A Blizzard Warning was contemplated, but am not confident enough in criteria being met for more than brief periods. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joc111 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 33.8/32.3 SN Visibility now well under a mile based on downtown landmarks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Looks like it’s all snow in DC It's white rain. Not sticking anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 The power is flashing and buzzing outside my window, and it isn’t even snowing yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Heavy sleet, starting to slush up everything including roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
300 square feet Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Starting to stick to the driveway in Reston! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joc111 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, EHoffman said: It's white rain. Not sticking anywhere It is on parked cars. Grass and roads will be soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Grass coated, deck coated and pavement caving. Nice juicy flakes and good rates near Reston also it is 33 degrees. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, EHoffman said: It's white rain. Not sticking anywhere Wild. It stuck almost immediately here to the usual colder surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, 300 square feet said: Starting to stick to the driveway in Reston! 5ish minutes away from Reston and it is so nice out, good flakes and rates does wonders. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 33 with moderate snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Almost shocked at the rates, accumulation and temps in N Arlington. 3/6/13 this isn't! 33F and still dropping. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 35/33 in Lake Ridge Finally flipped to all snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 My buddy in Annapolis said it’s snowing hard out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
300 square feet Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: 5ish minutes away from Reston and it is so nice out, good flakes and rates does wonders. Yeah it’s a beautiful morning! Crazy rates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 16 minutes ago, yoda said: Fox5 just said report of TSSN in/near CHO I can confirm lightning and fatties in Cho! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 morristown TN - an area that was 60+ degrees with severe thunderstorms warnings earlier today now reporting 2+“ of snow with heavy snow falling. Amazing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just heard Thunder!!! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Have to imagine there’s some thunder associated with that band SW of dc 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joc111 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Bordering on +SN based on downtown landmarks... 33.6/32.1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 18 minutes ago, joc111 said: Hey, don’t know if people saw this but wanted to make sure they did. Isn’t 994 far lower than what the models have/had at this time. I checked the NAM and it had 998 or 997, would this be a significantly good sign for a better storm if this is the case? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Hey, don’t know if people saw this but wanted to make sure they did. Isn’t 994 far lower than what the models have/had at this time. I checked the NAM and it had 998 or 997, would this be a significantly good sign for a better storm if this is the case? Good eye. Let’s see if it translates to anything (More expansive shield northward or heavier qpf) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joc111 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 First signs of clear accumulation on grassy surfaces. Still +SN. 33.6/32.1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Whichever areas can stay all snow JUST Nw of the r/s line in Virginia and E MD / DE are going to get hammered. Usually can find the heaviest precip near the fall line. Looks like Charlottesville over to culpelper are currently in this zone. Nice band moving into Manassas as well 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just a note about the teleconnections currently: -AO, -NAO, and yes a -PNA. WPO is also significantly negative. Southward displaced TPV lobe underneath that HL block. Pretty classic h5 look for a MA winter storm, with lots of red up top. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Just a note about the teleconnections currently: -AO, -NAO, and yes a -PNA. WPO is also significantly negative. Southward displaced TPV lobe underneath that HL block. Pretty classic h5 look for a MA winter storm, with lots of red up top. Just goes to show how much timing means with weather. We don’t need the trifecta +PNA -AO -NAO setup to score 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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