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January 3, 2022 CAPE Storm Obs/Nowcast


WxUSAF
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Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Hey, don’t know if people saw this but wanted to make sure they did. Isn’t 994 far lower than what the models have/had at this time. I checked the NAM and it had 998 or 997, would this be a significantly good sign for a better storm if this is the case?

Good eye. Let’s see if it translates to anything (More expansive shield northward or heavier qpf) 

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Whichever areas can stay all snow JUST Nw of the r/s line in Virginia and E MD / DE are going to get hammered. Usually can find the heaviest precip near the fall line. Looks like Charlottesville over to culpelper are currently in this zone. Nice band moving into Manassas as well  

10C7850B-F9C6-4BC7-89F1-6EA90E88CEBD.jpeg

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Just a note about the teleconnections currently: -AO, -NAO, and yes a -PNA. WPO is also significantly negative. Southward displaced TPV lobe underneath that HL block. Pretty classic h5 look for a MA winter storm, with lots of red up top.

Just goes to show how much timing means with weather. We don’t need the trifecta +PNA -AO -NAO setup to score  

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Just goes to show how much timing means with weather. We don’t need the trifecta +PNA -AO -NAO setup to score  

Timing is always big. We don't need or even want a super positive PNA though for a big snowstorm.  The more important trifecta is the one that produces +heights straight across the HL region to our north.

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