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January 3, 2022 CAPE Storm Obs/Nowcast


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1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Looks like where I am on the southern part of Parrs Ridge made it into the snow shield. Started at snow and is sticking to every surface. Hopefully we stay in the good qpf.

You guys will somehow end up with a jackpot upslope band that drops 8” lol #climoftw

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Just now, snjókoma said:

Grass starting to get that telltale whitish hue under the band here. Temp down to 34F. As far as DC snowstorms go, this is not a bad start.

Dc is about to see its best snowfall in multiple winters I reckon. Route 50 is ground zero for this bad boy 

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8 minutes ago, jayyy said:

As far as wasted QPF before the changeover is concerned…. We actually did alright in that department. Saw very minimal qpf in central md and the all snow line is knocking on our door step. Radar is insanely juicy to the S/SW. The issue for us is the speed of the storm. It’ll be a very quick hitter  

Do you have exact numbers? It’s been raining to beat the band outside so I’d be very hard pressed to see less than .3 or .4 wasted. That’s a lot. And yes, being a quick hitter is equally important. 

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I know many like to ride models til the wheels fall off, even as the storm is overhead, but I am actually excited by what I’m seeing on the radar and WV loop. Pretty classic look for a mid Atlantic I-95 special. The main precip shield, to me, seems a bit north the more I look at it. Reports of thunder snow and 6-8” of snowfall in AL, TN and NW GA. Can only bode well for us up here. 

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3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Do you have exact numbers? It’s been raining to beat the band outside so I’d be very hard pressed to see less than .3 or .4 wasted. That’s a lot. And yes, being a quick hitter is equally important. 

Haven’t seen .3-.4 worth of qpf here in Ellicott city at least. It rained fairly lightly over the last few hours. Many models accounted for this period of rain / slop
 

Idk. I’m looking at a radar in which the SW edge of precip is back in Atlanta and we are already all snow. It’s fast moving but nearly all of that precip is heavy. 

 

man, if only we had something to slow this storm down

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Just now, peribonca said:

Hrrr has the precip shield collapsing through Central Maryland down to almost DC in the next few hours as dry air pushes in... Only to build back a bit. Will be interesting to see if that plays out

We would get dry slotted wouldn’t we 

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Updated forecast here is 8-12" with a mention of locally higher amounts.

Definitely see that based on latest trends.  Someone out your way into Delaware and southern jersey is going to jackpot above 12”. 2-3” per hour rates coming for that area. Going to be some sweet mesos forming east of dc later on this morning 

If this wasn’t such a quick mover, I’d say 12” was possible area wide bear i-95. Shame but it will be a fun morning nonetheless. 

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