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January 3, 2022 CAPE Storm Obs/Nowcast


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12km NAM coming through now. Still only out to 14 hours for me. h5 early on maybe looks marginally better but doesn't look like a huge adjustment as of yet. Axis of the shield looks a little flatter though which could contribute to a harsher cutoff line. We shall see in the rest of the run and the 3km.

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Sheesh...almost no change on the NAM? I mean do ya start to move away from the globals at this close range? (I remember somebody saying to look more at the ensembles that the ops at short range). Maybe the Nam is more representative of a nina tendency? Lol

I’d love to see a good NAMming but I’d always rather have GFS/Euro on my side.  

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