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January 3, 2022 CAPE Storm Obs/Nowcast


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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-504-506-VAZ052>054-501-502-506-031600-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220103T2100Z/
District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun-
256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations 5 to 10 inches, with
  the heaviest amounts most likely near and south of US 50.

* WHERE...The Washington Metropolitan area, portions of northern
  Virginia, and Washington DC.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon. Rain and sleet will change
  to all snow between 5 AM and 8 AM this morning. The heaviest
  snow will be through early this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery roads, making travel
  difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning
  commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility will be reduced to below one-
  half mile at times in heavier bands of snow.

 

I got my alarm set for 7 but I'm too excited to sleep

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59 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Okay thanks. As a snow lover like most of us, will be disappointing to be so close to big amounts BUT I am going to enjoy whatever I can get because anything is better than nothing! Also very happy for the folks in the jackpot zone as everyone knows they've been in the shaft zone way too many times over the years! 

Tough call for Towson. Could see places 30-50 miles south with 6-8-10” as they see 2-3”. The cutoff is insane. Curious to see if we see ANY noticeable shift northward versus models with precip. So far, not so much. 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

MDZ008-011-508-031600-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220103T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220103T2100Z/
Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Southeast Harford-
256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches.

* WHERE...Cecil, Southern Baltimore and Southeast Harford
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon. Precipitation may begin as
  a mix of rain, sleet, and snow, but precipitation will change to
  all snow by 6 am this morning. The heaviest snow will be through
  midday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility will be reduced to below one-
  half mile at times in heavier bands of snow.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

VAZ025-036>038-050-507-508-031600-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220103T1800Z/
Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Orange-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches
  with amounts around 8 to 14 inches along the Blue Ridge
  Mountains.

* WHERE...Portions of central Virginia, the Potomac Highlands of
  Virginia, and the Blue Ridge Mountains.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon. A mixture of rain, sleet,
  and snow will change to all snow by 6 AM. The heaviest snow will
  be through this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery roads, making travel
  difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning
  commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility will be reduced to below one-
  half mile at times in heavier bands of snow.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

MDZ016>018-VAZ055>057-031600-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220103T2100Z/
Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-
256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches.
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Maryland and the Virginia Piedmont
  including the Fredericksburg Metropolitan area.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery roads, making travel
  difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning
  commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility will be reduced to below one-
  half mile at times in heavier bands of snow.
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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Woah! Warning upped to 5-10” for eastern Howard county! LFG! So glad I decided to stay here for another night 

tend to agree with this decision based on how juiced that radar is and current snow reports down in TN AL 

Warnings have been extended North and East through Eastern Howard, Southern Baltimore CO., Southern Harford and Cecil County

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

VAZ026-029-039-040-051-031600-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220103T1800Z/
Rockingham-Page-Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper-
256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches.

* WHERE...Madison, Page, Rockingham, Rappahannock and Culpeper
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon. Rain, sleet, and snow will
  change to all snow by 6 AM this morning. The heaviest snow will
  be this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery roads, making travel
  difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning
  commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility will be reduced to below one-
  half mile at times in heavier bands of snow.
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14 minutes ago, gopper said:

Warnings have been extended North and East through Eastern Howard, Southern Baltimore CO., Southern Harford and Cecil County

Eastern Howard had a warning up all day, but for 4-7”, not 5-10”. Southern Baltimore county, Baltimore city and southern harford were issued their first warnings however for 3-6”
 

Interesting development with the NAM shifting a bit SE   

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20 minutes ago, EHoffman said:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-504-506-VAZ052>054-501-502-506-031600-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220103T2100Z/
District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun-
256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations 5 to 10 inches, with
  the heaviest amounts most likely near and south of US 50.

* WHERE...The Washington Metropolitan area, portions of northern
  Virginia, and Washington DC.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon. Rain and sleet will change
  to all snow between 5 AM and 8 AM this morning. The heaviest
  snow will be through early this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery roads, making travel
  difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning
  commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility will be reduced to below one-
  half mile at times in heavier bands of snow.

 

I got my alarm set for 7 but I'm too excited to sleep

CONGRATS! What have I been tellin y'all all this time? You are going to have a very frigid, very snowy winter in early 2022! Forget the Nina! IT WANTS TO SNOW IN THE MID ATLANTIC! You guys are gonna get SHELLACKED! Happy New Year! Get those Jebman Shovels ready!  Get ready for some EPIC jebwalks, as those HUGE aggregates blast past the streetlights!

Post pics, or it never happened!

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Going to be wild in Baltimore County today. There are going to be some people talking about how awesome the snow is and others who are like "What snow are you talking about?" 

As someone that drives from more north/central Baltimore County to the far southeast corner of the county for work, it'll be interesting. 

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28 minutes ago, EHoffman said:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-504-506-VAZ052>054-501-502-506-031600-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220103T2100Z/
District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun-
256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations 5 to 10 inches, with
  the heaviest amounts most likely near and south of US 50.

* WHERE...The Washington Metropolitan area, portions of northern
  Virginia, and Washington DC.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon. Rain and sleet will change
  to all snow between 5 AM and 8 AM this morning. The heaviest
  snow will be through early this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery roads, making travel
  difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning
  commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility will be reduced to below one-
  half mile at times in heavier bands of snow.

 

I got my alarm set for 7 but I'm too excited to sleep

 

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
319 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will continue to track northeastward along a cold
front today. High pressure returns for Tuesday before a weak
cold front crosses the area on Wednesday. Another low pressure
system is slated to cross the region late in the week. Drier
weather returns over the weekend.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest WV imagery depicts a potent H5 trough beginning to take
on a negatively tilted profile as a surface low pressure system
currently over the southeast US tracks northeastward. Precip
continues to spread over the area early this morning.
Temperatures are sitting in the mid to upper 30s across many
locations with some low 40s closer to the metro areas and
southern MD. While precip is mainly in the form of rain
currently, CC bright banding is showing some mixing in with
sleet that`s becoming more widespread. In addition, some snow
MPING reports and beginning to show over portions of the Blue
Ridge. All of this is an indication of a warm mid layer
continuing to erode away as colder air is advected into the
region.

Forecast generally remains on track from earlier forecasts. Only
have made minor adjustments to snow totals to account for a
slightly more NW shift in track. As such, have expanded the
Winter Storm Warning farther NW. Expect the heaviest snow to
begin developing closer to daybreak and last through most of the
morning hours. There remains some uncertainty as to how far
north the heaviest snow bands will develop. Latest hi-res
guidance, in conjunction with previous runs, continues to
depict a band of strong frontogenesis, slated to develop in a SW
to NE orientation from the Central Shenandoah Valley, across
southern Central VA, to just south of the DC Metro Area and
points south. Strong omega in the snow growth zone, gives
confidence that said bands have the potential to produce
snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour at times along and
southeast of the aforementioned locations. If that`s the case,
with cold air in place yielding near 10:1 snow ratios, will see
snow totals add up quickly. More so, given the fact that this
will be occurring during the morning rush hour, will make
driving quite difficult with visibilities lowering to a quarter
of a mile in the heaviest banding, along with gusty winds that
can result in blowing snow.

Snow will begin to taper off from SW to NE through the afternoon
hours as the low departs the area. Do expect the entire system
to be offshore by early this evening. Cold air will remain in
place overnight lows dropping down into the teens to low 20s
for most.
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