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January 3, 2022 CAPE Storm Obs/Nowcast


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1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Crazy how low that map is for Southern Maryland!

It just tells me that it's all about the rates. Convective banding would only add to the disparity of the haves and have nots. You're either getting light snow or mixed precip or ripping fatties, with little in between. 

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12 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

I always thought, when ptype would be an issue, that the 3KM NAM Ferrier SLR would be a good sanity check. Even in this case, when the warm layer is mainly (entirely) surface based instead of aloft. 

I would look at these totals as the lower percentiles or "expect at least this much". I know this map isn't comforting for most of us, including me with MBY in central AA County. But we are going to need those rippin' rates.

Screenshot_20220102-230905_Chrome.jpg

Razor's edge here in Hoco. I'm probably in the 3 inch range on that map, but oh so close to nothing or more than doubling that amount. Going to be so interesting to see how this plays out and who gets what and which model was best.

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For those interested, it's my first time making a cross-section plot of the frontogenesis, which is highly aligned with upward vertical velocity. The cross-section here goes through the cold air damming zone and snowstorm. You can see the chunk of cold air sitting just east of the Appalachians, with a small zone of temeperature inversion.

Bsa7yxm.png

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1 minute ago, Chinook said:

For those interested, it's my first time making a cross-section plot of the frontogenesis, which is highly aligned with upward vertical velocity. The cross-section here goes through the cold air damming zone and snowstorm. You can see the chunk of cold air sitting just east of the Appalachians, with a small zone of temeperature inversion.

Bsa7yxm.png

Super cool!

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33 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I mean it’s still 48 in DC and we’re a few hours from onset of precipitation…have to believe a few hours is wasted due to warm antecedent conditions. Hard to buy the 12”+ solutions. But it should still be impressive for 4 to 6 hours particularly like 8am to 1pm in my opinion 

Falling temps post 8am in heavy snow is unique and I remember 2010 Snowmaggedon  morning  it did that in blizzard like fashion 

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one of the things that concerns me a bit up here (and this is non emo; trying to be science based) is the nw wind and subsequent dry air.  not only would i imagine that being part of the reason for the cutoff, but i can't recall too many storms that arrived right on the heels of a cold front (and it's still a little breezy out there).  whatever happens, it's an interesting setup to track.

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36 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Somebody in my regional sub mentioned this storm, so I decided to check it out.  Is there a reason why the NWS is being conservative with amounts across the area?  It isn't just one spot, it seems like it is across the board.  The models look pretty impressive.

Going to rain a bit but once snow gets to moderate it will be 0.5 to 1”ph for 4-6 hours  and accumulate. Does Harry post in your sub?

 

 

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Just now, CntrTim85 said:

I said this earlier and got burned at the stake. Dry air will destroy the back edge of this thing. It already happened in Tuscaloosa, AL tonight. Combine that with temps and possible rain/sleet and the bust potential is HIGH. 

it's a valid concern, but you don't want to speak in absolutes on a board where people are feening for snow.  with that said, i always felt i95 was in a better spot for this...mostly because that's what the models have predominantly shown lol.

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2 minutes ago, CntrTim85 said:

I said this earlier and got burned at the stake. Dry air will destroy the back edge of this thing. It already happened in Tuscaloosa, AL tonight. Combine that with temps and possible rain/sleet and the bust potential is HIGH. 

It’s never terrible to hear the skeptics voice. But if you bust then people won’t listen anymore 

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5 minutes ago, CntrTim85 said:

I said this earlier and got burned at the stake. Dry air will destroy the back edge of this thing. It already happened in Tuscaloosa, AL tonight. Combine that with temps and possible rain/sleet and the bust potential is HIGH. 

How's the event holding up for you in Chesapeake?

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