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January 3, 2022 CAPE Storm Obs/Nowcast


WxUSAF
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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Given a choice of any weather occurrence that I despise more than anything, I would choose missing out on a winter event because of a lack of precip number one without any question. I’d rather it be 60 and rain.

You should move east near 95. You'd get both wishes on the regular. 

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Somebody in my regional sub mentioned this storm, so I decided to check it out.  Is there a reason why the NWS is being conservative with amounts across the area?  It isn't just one spot, it seems like it is across the board.  The models look pretty impressive.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Somebody in my regional sub mentioned this storm, so I decided to check it out.  Is there a reason why the NWS is being conservative with amounts across the area?  It isn't just one spot, it seems like it is across the board.  The models look pretty impressive.

Warm temps to start, possible sleet mixing.  

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Somebody in my regional sub mentioned this storm, so I decided to check it out.  Is there a reason why the NWS is being conservative with amounts across the area?  It isn't just one spot, it seems like it is across the board.  The models look pretty impressive.

I think they believe there will be mixing.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Somebody in my regional sub mentioned this storm, so I decided to check it out.  Is there a reason why the NWS is being conservative with amounts across the area?  It isn't just one spot, it seems like it is across the board.  The models look pretty impressive.

I mean it’s still 48 in DC and we’re a few hours from onset of precipitation…have to believe a few hours is wasted due to warm antecedent conditions. Hard to buy the 12”+ solutions. But it should still be impressive for 4 to 6 hours particularly like 8am to 1pm in my opinion 

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Just now, CntrTim85 said:

Are you worried too? I feel like the snow is going to be a big ole' bust. I just headed up to Freddysburg with my 3 cats and checked in a hotel to see some snow flakes. So worried Beans, Bill, and Balls will not get their first token flakes. 

Are you doing a bit? I feel like you really didn't get my message a while back.

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2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I mean it’s still 48 in DC and we’re a few hours from onset of precipitation…have to believe a few hours is wasted due to warm antecedent conditions. Hard to buy the 12”+ solutions. But it should still be impressive for 4 to 6 hours particularly like 8am to 1pm in my opinion 

I always thought, when ptype would be an issue, that the 3KM NAM Ferrier SLR would be a good sanity check. Even in this case, when the warm layer is mainly (entirely) surface based instead of aloft. 

I would look at these totals as the lower percentiles or "expect at least this much". I know this map isn't comforting for most of us, including me with MBY in central AA County. But we are going to need those rippin' rates.

Screenshot_20220102-230905_Chrome.jpg

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4 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

I always thought, when ptype would be an issue, that the 3KM NAM Ferrier SLR would be a good sanity check. Even in this case, when the warm layer is mainly (entirely) surface based instead of aloft. 

I would look at these totals as the lower percentiles or "expect at least this much". I know this map isn't comforting for most of us, including me with MBY in central AA County. But we are going to need those rippin' rates.

Screenshot_20220102-230905_Chrome.jpg

Crazy how low that map is for Southern Maryland! Most forecasts has them as the bullseye.

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