87storms Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 the nam is obviously meant to key in on the heavier stuff and will overdo the precip amounts (and underdo the lighter stuff) while the hrrr jumps around all the over the place (and is at least partly driven by radar trends, if i remember correctly). i gotta think a mix of the euro/gfs is the best strategy at this point, along with nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Good number. I've been thinking 6". I’m thinking the 16” or so the 12km NAM just dropped on us. Go big or go home. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 46/37 in Haymarket NW 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 39/32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: What’s up iackpot? I call u that because I think it’s correct…and it’s a cool name I like the name, things are well, cautiously optimistic, looking forward to snow waffles tomorrow morning. Feels like 7" o/u is a good place.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, wawarriors4 said: I like the name, things are well, cautiously optimistic, looking forward to snow waffles tomorrow morning. Feels like 7" o/u is a good place.... Thinking a solid 8 inches for you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Good night from Puerto Rico. Hoping to wake up to happy obs. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 44/37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 47/36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Thinking a solid 8 inches for you. Don't get me to excited, taking a cautious approach but hopeful to make a run at double digits.....Eastern Loudoun added to the Winter Storm Warning FWIW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I'm hoping for 2 inches up here at the m/d line. Could see our area getting nothing but also could see how we could get a boom scenario. paging RR 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Eastern Loudoun upgraded to WSW from WWA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 48/37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I'm really curious to see if this event generates a foot anywhere in the CWA... given the antecedent conditions. If it does, its gotta be unprecedented. I know we've had significant snows after warm days but 12"+ after 60+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Congrats on the storm, i guess the JuJu worked! We're up here getting cucked in New England, but you guys enjoy, you definitely deserve it 5 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Extrapolate liberally 9 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Ravens94 said: Entire storm *HRRR still really trending NW fast so by no means is this probably done Have you hit 100 posts about the HRRR NW trend yet today? So odd the modeled heavy snow area hasn't reached Erie yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 48/39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- 9:30 PM UPDATE: Latest surface analysis depicts that the cold front has pushed through the entire forecast area at this point, with cooler temps and drier air pushing in behind it. Low pressure is developing over the GA/AL border and moving in our direction tonight. In the wake of the cold front pushing through, the low pressure will begin to spread precipitation northeastward across the region starting late this evening and continuing into the early morning. Latest HRRR and NAM have continued a slight northwest shift. For this reason, updates are forthcoming to the forecast. Have decided to add eastern Loudoun County, VA into the Winter Storm Warning given this trend. QPF amounts have continued to trend upwards even into southern Baltimore, southern Harford, and Cecil counties in MD. However, uncertainty is still too high, so won`t be changing anything there for now headline wise 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: Extrapolate liberally bUt SnOw WoNt sTiCk wHen iTs wArm the DaY bEfOre. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Extrapolate liberally That pic is from rr’s wife. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Y’all realize that vice regent might beat us all for snow totals? Chew on that 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Winter storm warning still holding at 5-8" which is a pretty big FU to the models. MBY is still ground zero so I don't care, bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, snowfan said: That pic is from rr’s wife. He needs to groom some. Aaaaaaand scene 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, H2O said: Y’all realize that vice regent might beat us all for snow totals? Chew on that I don't feel that we shoulda started a thread since this isn't a region-wide event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Y’all realize that vice regent might beat us all for snow totals? Chew on thatHe's not the only oneSent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Have you hit 100 posts about the HRRR NW trend yet today? So odd the modeled heavy snow area hasn't reached Erie yet. Well if it's moving NW run after run it don't have to be 200 miles to make a difference to many on the cutoff line and many on this not forum not in DC and Baltimore and who reside to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 17 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I'm hoping for 2 inches up here at the m/d line. Could see our area getting nothing but also could see how we could get a boom scenario. Try the other Pfizer product, not the vaccine. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: Don't get me to excited, taking a cautious approach but hopeful to make a run at double digits.....Eastern Loudoun added to the Winter Storm Warning FWIW. I have seen forecast as high as 12 but I am not buying it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 52/39 ... subjectively, feels like something approaching winter for the first time in a week or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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