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January 3, 2022 CAPE Storm Obs/Nowcast


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3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

It is pretty nuts...I don't think I have ever been right on the line of such a sharp gradient.  I could honestly see getting 1-3" or not a single flake imby.

I'm hoping for 2 inches up here at the m/d line. Could see our area getting nothing but also could see how we could get a boom scenario. 

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the nam is obviously meant to key in on the heavier stuff and will overdo the precip amounts (and underdo the lighter stuff) while the hrrr jumps around all the over the place (and is at least partly driven by radar trends, if i remember correctly).  i gotta think a mix of the euro/gfs is the best strategy at this point, along with nowcasting.

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NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --

9:30 PM UPDATE: Latest surface analysis depicts that the cold front has pushed through the entire forecast area at this point, with cooler temps and drier air pushing in behind it. Low pressure is developing over the GA/AL border and moving in our direction tonight. In the wake of the cold front pushing through, the low pressure will begin to spread precipitation northeastward across the region starting late this evening and continuing into the early morning. Latest HRRR and NAM have continued a slight northwest shift. For this reason, updates are forthcoming to the forecast. Have decided to add eastern Loudoun County, VA into the Winter Storm Warning given this trend. QPF amounts have continued to trend upwards even into southern Baltimore, southern Harford, and Cecil counties in MD. However, uncertainty is still too high, so won`t be changing anything there for now headline wise

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