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January 3, 2022 CAPE Storm Obs/Nowcast


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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Yes.  

Long range HRRR is not reliable, don’t bother with it.

Might be the weenie in me, but at this time during storms where we're on the SE fringe, we look to the HRRR to have a colder and more SE solution compared to general guidance. I definitely remember this for our sleet bomb last February. 

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Was in the 60s the day before the March 2018 snowstorm in Frederick.  Snow had no problem accumulating 18hrs later.

Models are showing temps dropping 29/30F  in the city with upper 20s north and west.   Warm ground is a big factor when it's 32/33 and snowing lightly.  29 and dumping 2"/hr is going to be a flash freeze and a commutemageddon  if we didn't have the day off.

https://i.imgur.com/Wb3Rj1d.gif

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

Was in the 60s the day before the March 2018 snowstorm in Frederick.  Snow had no problem accumulating 18hrs later.

Models are showing temps dropping 29/30F  in the city with upper 20s north and west.   Warm ground is a big factor when it's 32/33 and snowing lightly.  29 and dumping 2"/hr is going to be a flash freeze and a commutemageddon  if we didn't have the day off.

https://i.imgur.com/Wb3Rj1d.gif

Also we’re at the time of year where the sun won’t be roasting the stuff as fast as it falls.  I love snow this time of year. 

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18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Counting on you to measure well tomorrow - need a Charlottesville ob for my records.

82/67 along the northern coast of Puerto Rico with 8-10ft waves offshore.

Good luck tonight/tomorrow everyone — looking forward to seeing the leftovers Tuesday night. Gonna be tough getting the car out of the airport parking lot.

We are *supposed* to fly to PR this Saturday, all we need is negative tests and no flight cancellation! :o

Down to 59 in Germantown

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1 minute ago, Natester said:

I'm from the midwest but I've been watching this thread.  I have a question, when was DC's last big snowstorm?  Was it 2018?

Jan 12-14 2019 produced 10" at DCA, it was long duration storm, albeit with light rates for most of the event. 

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NOOO

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
233 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-504-506-VAZ052>054-501-502-032045-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0001.220103T0600Z-220103T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KLWX.WS.W.0001.220103T0600Z-220103T2100Z/
District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-
233 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches.
  Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of central Maryland
  and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
233 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

VAZ025-036>038-050-507-508-031800-
/O.EXT.KLWX.WS.W.0001.220103T0400Z-220103T1800Z/
Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Orange-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
233 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northwest and western Virginia.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
233 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

VAZ026-029-039-040-051-031800-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0001.220103T0600Z-220103T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KLWX.WS.W.0001.220103T0400Z-220103T1800Z/
Rockingham-Page-Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper-
233 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches.

* WHERE...Rockingham, Page, Madison, Rappahannock and Culpeper
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
233 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

MDZ016>018-VAZ055>057-032045-
/O.EXT.KLWX.WS.W.0001.220103T0600Z-220103T2100Z/
Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-
233 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches.
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Maryland and central and northern
  Virginia.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 4 PM EST Monday.
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